MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May
Looks like we’re kind of in the middle of all the rain to either side. Are we getting lucky or is this just fools gold?
Having a chance to get on for a quick moment. I am currently out of the state and will be so through Sunday (attending my brothers college graduation). I'm enjoying quite the contrast in weather with high temps in the 50s and lows potentially dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s.
I'll be monitoring what is going on back at home when I am able to. Hate to say that I hope models get this wrong, because we would like to see them be right to a certain degree so we're able to have better confidence in future situations like this one. However, with the poor recent model performance, especially on Tuesday and much of the grounds already saturated, I do hope models don't produce the rainfall totals I'm seeing projected.
This community plays an important role in getting vital messaging out to those who need it and overall just staying weather aware in times like this. With that said, please use common sense when the weather starts to deteriorate. If you don't have to be out on the roadways, don't! I'm sure much of the local news will be extensively covering the flooding with their reporters out in this.
Hope everyone is able to get through this event unscathed!
I'll be monitoring what is going on back at home when I am able to. Hate to say that I hope models get this wrong, because we would like to see them be right to a certain degree so we're able to have better confidence in future situations like this one. However, with the poor recent model performance, especially on Tuesday and much of the grounds already saturated, I do hope models don't produce the rainfall totals I'm seeing projected.
This community plays an important role in getting vital messaging out to those who need it and overall just staying weather aware in times like this. With that said, please use common sense when the weather starts to deteriorate. If you don't have to be out on the roadways, don't! I'm sure much of the local news will be extensively covering the flooding with their reporters out in this.
Hope everyone is able to get through this event unscathed!
Blake
Boomer Sooner
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The Storm Prediction Center issues a Mesoscale Discussion suggesting a Weather Watch may be possible for the Middle and Upper Texas Coast...
Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019
Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092240Z - 100015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Convection is being monitored across the Middle and Upper
Texas Coast vicinity. A watch may be needed this evening if
confidence increases in an isolated damaging wind and large hail
threat.
DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed in
low level confluence zone ahead of the surface cold front in Harris
and Liberty Counties southward toward Wharton County. Additional
strong to severe storms had developed near the intersection of this
confluence zone and an outflow boundary across far southeast TX,
from Polk to Orange Counties northward to Jasper and Newton
Counties. While this convection is north of the outflow, surface
analysis shows temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s with low
70s dewpoints and strong instability, resulting in likely
surface-based storms. The more isolated activity to the southwest is
likewise occurring in a very unstable environment with midlevel
lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km.
Forcing across the area is generally weak at this moment, but should
increase over the next few hours as the cold front sags southward
and a subtle impulse over northern/central Mexico shifts east across
southern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. As a result, convection
could increase in intensity across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast
vicinity the next few hours. Latest HRRR, 18z 4km NAM and 20z RAP
guidance all suggest development in this vicinity by around 00z.
Should this scenario play out, locally damaging winds and large hail
will be the main concern. Low level flow is rather weak with latest
KHGX VWP data indicating only 5 kt of sfc-1 km shear. Nevertheless,
backed low level flow in a very moist environment could result in a
brief tornado. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a
watch is possible at some point this evening.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019
Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092240Z - 100015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Convection is being monitored across the Middle and Upper
Texas Coast vicinity. A watch may be needed this evening if
confidence increases in an isolated damaging wind and large hail
threat.
DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed in
low level confluence zone ahead of the surface cold front in Harris
and Liberty Counties southward toward Wharton County. Additional
strong to severe storms had developed near the intersection of this
confluence zone and an outflow boundary across far southeast TX,
from Polk to Orange Counties northward to Jasper and Newton
Counties. While this convection is north of the outflow, surface
analysis shows temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s with low
70s dewpoints and strong instability, resulting in likely
surface-based storms. The more isolated activity to the southwest is
likewise occurring in a very unstable environment with midlevel
lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km.
Forcing across the area is generally weak at this moment, but should
increase over the next few hours as the cold front sags southward
and a subtle impulse over northern/central Mexico shifts east across
southern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. As a result, convection
could increase in intensity across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast
vicinity the next few hours. Latest HRRR, 18z 4km NAM and 20z RAP
guidance all suggest development in this vicinity by around 00z.
Should this scenario play out, locally damaging winds and large hail
will be the main concern. Low level flow is rather weak with latest
KHGX VWP data indicating only 5 kt of sfc-1 km shear. Nevertheless,
backed low level flow in a very moist environment could result in a
brief tornado. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a
watch is possible at some point this evening.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Lots of cells firing up right on time just south of Rosenberg
Oh no, its still flooded. Gulf states road in Beaumont. Unless you drive a large high vehicle you wont make it. I HAD to drive thru it unfortunately because where o work its the ONLY road in and out. I left before it got too bad. By now im sure its barricaded.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
It’s popping here in the Wharton /El Campo area. Storms just started exploding on radar.
Thunder here in Pearland.
Hi Pros,
Thank you for all you do!
I am confused with all the posts on here.
I realize the weather is going to get treacherous however, I am so confused now, as to where.
Is the line along I 10 and south of same now? Into Sugarland or as far west as Katy?
Thank you!
Thank you for all you do!
I am confused with all the posts on here.
I realize the weather is going to get treacherous however, I am so confused now, as to where.
Is the line along I 10 and south of same now? Into Sugarland or as far west as Katy?
Thank you!
Hearing thunder in Stafford.
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