MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[Cpv17]

Today looks to be a dud across most of southeast TX. Storms stabilized the atmosphere yesterday too much for anything to get going today.

I definitely wouldn't say that. Lots of little discrete cells starting to pop up in the southern viewing area

I don’t think it’s been talked about here yet, but I think there’s a small chance that the southern end of the main line of storms could stall out somewhere over the area and set up training. I still don’t think today will produce much of anything, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out

[jasons2k]

There must be capping issues or something going on...

[srainhoutx]

Our HGX Meteorologist In Charge provided an excellent Area Forecast Discussion for those interested...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY THIS AFTERNOON, SO LITTLE TIME TO WRITE. CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT HOLDING ACROSS ERN TX. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT... OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO NERN TX WILL
BECOME EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK CAPPING, WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SMALL BOW ECHOES AND SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS (CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
AFTERNOON). EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF HOUSTON ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD, TRAILING END OF
THE FRONT WILL PIVOT MORE NE-SW ORIENTATION AND LIMIT CONVERGENCE.
FORTUNATELY, H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER
HEAVIEST AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
TORNADO WATCH AND THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... TOMORROW SHOULD START SIMILAR TO TODAY.
HOWEVER, BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE TODAY'S SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS. BY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR THE
STALLED FRONT, WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN TX OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A REPEAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PARAMETERS
CERTAINLY IN PLAY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WPC DAY 2/3) MDT RISKS
CERTAINLY VALID. WHO GETS THE WORST OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
WHEN REMAINS IN THE FINE DETAILS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE SCIENCE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME, TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS
WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. HOWEVER,
WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 5-8" WITH HIGHER TOTALS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT IN SOME LOCATIONS.

BEYOND SATURDAY... WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS TO BE IN THE
FORECASTS AT LEAST INTO WED.

EVANS

[snowman65]

is there confirmation of a tornado touch down in c.s. today? any info? thanks

[srainhoutx]

is there confirmation of a tornado touch down in c.s. today? any info? thanks

Nothing official yet. Bet there are several videos out there in wx twitter world of the event...

[djjordan]

Had flashbacks to Harvey yesterday afternoon through today. Numerous cars stalled and in the median along Settlers Way in Sugar Land. Our subdivision and many others flooded due to the Levee District closing the gates to the Brazos as it was already running high. Needless to say, been at home all day today with water slowly being pumped out. Didn't get into our house but it sure is wet outside. The lightning, thunder and torrential rain was a true Texas Gullywasher yesterday and last evening. Hoping this does not repeat itself.

[djmike]

Its amazing that you guys in Houston get a deluge of 14” of rain and just a tad NE of you here in Beaumont, in The last 3 days many have not seen a drop. I had sprinkles just west of Beaumont but that quickly deminished. Have a feeling Thu-Sat will tell a diff story for us but until then, many of us in Beaumont are hurting for rain. Hope I didnt speak too soon as we certainly dont need 14” in a day like you guys. Prayers for all of you flooded out of your homes.

[djjordan]

Totally caught us off guard. Wasn't expecting the real heavy rain to set up til tomorrow through Saturday. Mother nature sure likes to remind us who is boss.

[Ounce]

Its amazing that you guys in Houston get a deluge of 14” of rain and just a tad NE of you here in Beaumont, in The last 3 days many have not seen a drop. I had sprinkles just west of Beaumont but that quickly deminished. Have a feeling Thu-Sat will tell a diff story for us but until then, many of us in Beaumont are hurting for rain. Hope I didnt speak too soon as we certainly dont need 14” in a day like you guys. Prayers for all of you flooded out of your homes.

I guess it's your turn not to keep up with us on rain accumulation. I think I remember during Harvey that Beaumont was hanging with us inch for inch, until Harvey finally decided to pay a visit to y'all. We conceded. Y'all hang in there.

[Ptarmigan]

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

60 Hour Forecast
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 2019050812

Analog Table
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 12&map=tbl

Some of the analog dates raise eyebrows.

[Texaspirate11]

David Paul just mentioned how the convergence zone will be over Houston.
Ya know I just got a bad feeling about this all......

[Cpv17]

The 3km and 12km NAM have almost all of the rain north of 10.

[Texaspirate11]

The 3km and 12km NAM have almost all of the rain north of 10.

They are saying that the heaviest rain will be North of 1-10
but we'll see 5-8 inches S of 1-10 but we'll see how that plays out

[srainhoutx]

Active weather continues this morning and we likely will not see much of a break until Mother's Day and possibly this coming Monday. Another chance of Heavy Rainfall looks possible Tuesday through at least next Thursday, so be aware that this unsettled pattern looks to continue.

Synoptically we have a cool front slowly progressing out direction. That cold front is currently just NW of the Dallas/Ft Worth area and back West to Midland/Odessa. The front should meander toward the Hill Country today and near the Coastal Plain on Friday where it stalls. I believe that that stalled boundary may linger somewhere between the I-10 and I-69 Corridor until at least sometime Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWAT's are near or just above 2 inches which is 3 Standard Deviation above normal for this time of year. Very high rainfall rates look possible with 2 to 4 inch amounts per hour likely in the stronger storms and isolated higher rainfall rates per hour as seen Tuesday not out of the question.

The heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms appear to come in waves over the next 72 hour or so. The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall over our Region for the next 3 Days. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast still suggests rainfall totals near the 10 inch mark through next Wednesday. Flood Watches likely will be hoisted sometime today.

The Strom Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe Thunderstorms today and Marginal Risks on Friday and Saturday.

WPC Hazards for May 11th through 15th

[srainhoutx]

Flood Watch issued for all of SE Texas beginning at 1:00 PM today and continuing into Saturday evening...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA ISLANDS-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COASTAL BRAZORIA-
COASTAL GALVESTON-COASTAL HARRIS-COASTAL JACKSON-
COASTAL MATAGORDA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA-GRIMES-HOUSTON-
INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-INLAND HARRIS-INLAND JACKSON-
INLAND MATAGORDA-MADISON-MATAGORDA ISLANDS-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN LIBERTY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-SOUTHERN LIBERTY-TRINITY-WALKER-
WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAY CITY,
BAYTOWN, BELLVILLE, BRENHAM, BROOKSHIRE, BRYAN, CALDWELL,
CLEVELAND, CLUTE, COLDSPRING, COLLEGE STATION, COLUMBUS, CONROE,
CORRIGAN, CROCKETT, DAYTON, DEVERS, DICKINSON, EAGLE LAKE, EDNA,
EL CAMPO, FIRST COLONY, FREEPORT, FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, GANADO,
GROVETON, HEMPSTEAD, HOUSTON, HUNTSVILLE, LA MARQUE,
LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, LIVINGSTON, MADISONVILLE,
MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, NAVASOTA,
OLD RIVER-WINFREE, PALACIOS, PASADENA, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE,
PRAIRIE VIEW, ROSENBERG, SEALY, SHEPHERD, SOMERVILLE, STOWELL,
SUGAR LAND, SURFSIDE BEACH, TEXAS CITY, THE WOODLANDS, TRINITY,
WALLER, WEIMAR, WHARTON, AND WINNIE
434 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...COASTAL JACKSON AND INLAND JACKSON. IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA ISLANDS...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COASTAL BRAZORIA...COASTAL GALVESTON...
COASTAL HARRIS...COASTAL MATAGORDA...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
INLAND BRAZORIA...INLAND GALVESTON...INLAND HARRIS...INLAND
MATAGORDA...MADISON...MATAGORDA ISLANDS...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHERN LIBERTY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...SOUTHERN LIBERTY...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATE THROUGH THE
WATCH PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS ESTIMATE ABOUT 5-8
INCHES WIDESPREAD, WITH ISOLATED 9-12 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD RUN OFF
QUICKLY AND CAUSE FLOODING.

* BASED ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAINFALL RATES THAT WE ARE
ANTICIPATING DURING THESE TWO MAIN WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND, WE WILL BE USING THE FOLLOWING FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT. MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE
SCALED UP IF MORE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES OCCUR. STAY PUT. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL. UNDERPASSES AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
LIFE-THREATENING. IF CAUGHT IN A SINKING VEHICLE, GET OUT.
BAYOUS WILL LIKELY EXCEED BANKS AND STRUCTURE FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

[djmike]

What time will things get going for setx today?

[srainhoutx]

What time will things get going for setx today?

Current thinking is near the evening rush in Metro Houston well into the evening hours. That said I do see storms firing near the Rio Grande between Del Rio and Eagle Pass. Inspecting WV imagery, there does appear to be an upper air disturbance riding along a jet streak the extends from Mexico into S Central Texas. That ripple in the general WSW flow aloft my spark some activity just after the lunch hour. Remember the next 72 hours will be driven by mesoscale features, left over outflow boundaries, approaching cold front etc... Always a challenge, if not impossible to determine exactly which neighborhoods receive the storms and heavy rainfall. It is rather unusual for our NWS Offices around the Region (EWX/CRP/HGX/LCH) to issue a multi day Flash Flood Watch. Key Messaging will be;

"BASED ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAINFALL RATES THAT WE ARE
ANTICIPATING DURING THESE TWO MAIN WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND, WE WILL BE USING THE FOLLOWING FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT. MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE
SCALED UP IF MORE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES OCCUR. STAY PUT. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL. UNDERPASSES AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
LIFE-THREATENING. IF CAUGHT IN A SINKING VEHICLE, GET OUT.
BAYOUS WILL LIKELY EXCEED BANKS AND STRUCTURE FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE."

[stormlover]

I think the models will bust on this euro showing only 3 inches in Beaumont lol

[tireman4]

Just a PSA...remember, things might ( as Srain is predicting...great forecasts as usual) heat up later today. The pro mets ( and amateur ones too) that visit will help you as much as they can, but remember, they are working too.. Just be patient and they will try to answer questions and provide information as it comes across.

[tireman4]

A long AFD this morning...



000
FXUS64 KHGX 091150
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue the next few
hours with deep moisture in place over SE Texas. Winds should
begin to mix around 15Z along with some heating to allow ceilings
to lift to MVFR and then VFR for the early afternoon. Frontal
boundary now moving through Oklahoma and north Texas should reach
the area early this afternoon and Houston area by mid afternoon.
Hi-res models show convection developing 20-21Z and increasing in
coverage for the Houston area through 02Z Friday. At this point
will go with prevailing TSRA to cover this possibility with a
slight break before 06Z Friday. Extended part of the TAFs will
feature VCTS as another round of TSRA may be possible based on
NAM/GFS guidance. Overall hopefully TAFs reflect the latest
thinking but suspect there will be several amendments to adjust
for convective evolution.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 426 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast Highlights for Thursday through the Weekend:

- A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of SE TX starting
18Z today and continuing through 00Z Sunday.
- Forecasted rainfall totals estimate about 5-8 inches widespread,
with isolated 9-12 inches possible through the weekend.
- Moderate river flooding is ongoing along the San Jacinto, Brazos,
and San Bernard River. Moderate to Major Flooding continues for
the Trinity River.
- SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms today across
nearly all of our counties in SE TX, besides the southern extent
of Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties. The primary
weather hazards being damaging winds, hail and isolated
tornadoes possible.

Areas to patchy fog are evident across much of SE TX this morning.
Radar imagery as of 4 AM shows most of the showers and isolated
thunderstorms northeast of SE TX, with only some lingering light
rain over San Jacinto and Polk counties. Expect a lull in
precipitation this morning, besides maybe some light showers along
the coast, before the start of the next round of precipitation
later this afternoon. The main headline of today`s forecast
package is the issuance of the Flash Flood Watch, which will be in
effect starting at 18Z today and continuing through 00Z Sunday.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has extended the moderate risk
for excessive rainfall further inland and eastward across
portions of LA this morning, for Day 1 12Z today through 12Z
Friday. WPC has also shifted the moderate risk of excess rainfall
further inland for 12Z Friday into 12Z Saturday, covering a
majority of SE TX. Additionally, WPC`s new Day 3 Saturday 12Z into
Sunday 12Z also has a moderate risk for excessive rainfall over
our northeastern counties, mainly along I-45 and I-10 and towards
the northeast. Forecasted rainfall totals are still expected to be
about 5-8 inches widespread, with isolated 9-12 inches possible
through the weekend. Given the synoptic signals that global
guidance has been indicating for nearly the last week now, went
ahead and issued a lengthy Flash Flood Watch to cover the entirety
of the event. This event will be a marathon, not a sprint. That
being said, there will be multiple rounds of precipitation
throughout the weekend when there will be better chances for
flash flooding. The periods of these best chances for flash
flooding are as follows...

The first round of forecasted heavy rainfall looks to begin later
this afternoon into Friday morning. A lingering outflow boundary
remains draped across the middle of the forecast area, just north
I-10, from Colorado to Montgomery to Polk counties. Additionally,
a frontal boundary will move into SE TX by this afternoon and
should stall near I-10. Where exactly this boundary stalls, in
addition to other mesoscale boundaries, will heavily impact the
placement of the best rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm
development looks to focus mostly along this boundary by the
late afternoon hours today, with redevelopment continuing into
Friday morning. An MCS looks to move through the region early
Friday morning and will provide an additional threat for strong
to severe storms, as well as heavy rainfall rates. At this time,
HREF runs look to develop a squall line with this system.
A strong pulse of energy also passes through region Friday
morning coupled with this MCV, which will also help to provide
additional lift across the area.

In terms of severe weather for the next 24 hours, the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) is carrying a slight risk for severe storms
across nearly all of our counties in SE TX, besides the southern
extent of Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties. The primary
weather hazards being damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes
possible. The low level jet has lowered in speed this morning,
with 20 knots off the deck, as indicated by the HGX VAD wind
profiler. Forecast soundings show decent low level moisture in the
surface to nearly 850 mb layer, and precipitable water values
(PWs) this morning will start off between 1.5 to 1.7 but quickly
rise to 1.7 to 1.9 inches by this afternoon. Forecast soundings
are also showing the potential for gusty winds given the inverted
V profile seen in the low levels, surface and MU CAPE values of
2000-4000 J/kg across SE TX, with these higher CAPE values located
across our northern zones, and Lifted Index values (LIs) of -7 to
-11. Strong frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer will also be
possible through much of the day Friday.

The secondary round of best rainfall looks to start late Friday and
continue into Saturday evening. Multiple shortwave disturbances
look to propagate over these linger boundaries, with the stalled
frontal boundary remaining the main focus. Another MCS looks to
move through the region early Saturday morning. The convective
mode with this system is a little harder to forecast because of
mesoscale processes. The 850 mb LLJ also gets pumping once more
Saturday morning between 35-45 knots area wide, before the main
trough axis swings through eastern TX. Better frontogenesis values
in the low levels also pick up across the region once more
Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Upper level jet
dynamics also look more favorable during this second round of
heavy rainfall, with moderate to strong diffluence aloft.

Based on the rainfall totals and rainfall rates that we are
anticipating during these two main waves of heavy rainfall this
weekend, we will be using the following Flash Flood messaging
throughout the course of this event. Messaging may need to be scaled
up if more extreme rainfall rates occur.
- Stay Put. Do not attempt to travel.
- Underpasses and low-water crossings will be life-threatening.
- If caught in a sinking vehicle, get OUT.
- Bayous will likely exceed banks and structure flooding could be
possible.

As we move into the following work week, we look to have a small
break from the precipitation Sunday into early Tuesday. Sunday and
Monday look to be our next two driest days of the week, and partly
cloudy skies Monday allow high temperatures to once again rise into
the low 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to return by
Tuesday afternoon into mid week, with southwesterly flow aloft and
as multiple upper level disturbances pass through the region.


.MARINE...
Southeast winds continue to decrease this morning so the small craft
advisory and exercise caution will be cancelled. Seas are still a
bit rough near 5 to 7 feet but should decrease to 3 to 5 feet by
this afternoon. Southeast winds have held tide levels about 1.5 feet
above normal and expect that trend to continue headed into high tide
later this morning. Tide levels could reach 3.5ft MLLW again for
Gulf facing beaches. Beach hazards statement will continue through
today given the elevated tides and threat for rip currents.

A frontal boundary should approach and stall along the coast later
today into tonight allowing winds to become easterly. The front
should not push off the coast until late Saturday into Sunday.
Northerly winds on Sunday become easterly by Monday.

There will also be a series of thunderstorm systems to move across
the Upper Texas Coast. The first looks to be tonight into Friday
morning and again on Saturday. Winds and seas may be higher in and
near these thunderstorm systems. The main threats from the storms
will be high wind gusts, heavy rainfall and lightning.

Overpeck



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 82 59 69 63 74 / 60 80 80 80 90
Houston (IAH) 84 68 77 70 78 / 70 90 90 80 90
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 79 75 79 / 30 90 90 70 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck