I don’t think it’s been talked about here yet, but I think there’s a small chance that the southern end of the main line of storms could stall out somewhere over the area and set up training. I still don’t think today will produce much of anything, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out
MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May
There must be capping issues or something going on...
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19611
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Our HGX Meteorologist In Charge provided an excellent Area Forecast Discussion for those interested...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2019
.DISCUSSION...
BUSY THIS AFTERNOON, SO LITTLE TIME TO WRITE. CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT HOLDING ACROSS ERN TX. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT... OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO NERN TX WILL
BECOME EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK CAPPING, WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SMALL BOW ECHOES AND SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS (CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
AFTERNOON). EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF HOUSTON ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD, TRAILING END OF
THE FRONT WILL PIVOT MORE NE-SW ORIENTATION AND LIMIT CONVERGENCE.
FORTUNATELY, H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER
HEAVIEST AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
TORNADO WATCH AND THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... TOMORROW SHOULD START SIMILAR TO TODAY.
HOWEVER, BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE TODAY'S SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS. BY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR THE
STALLED FRONT, WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN TX OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A REPEAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PARAMETERS
CERTAINLY IN PLAY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WPC DAY 2/3) MDT RISKS
CERTAINLY VALID. WHO GETS THE WORST OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
WHEN REMAINS IN THE FINE DETAILS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE SCIENCE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME, TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS
WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. HOWEVER,
WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 5-8" WITH HIGHER TOTALS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
BEYOND SATURDAY... WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS TO BE IN THE
FORECASTS AT LEAST INTO WED.
EVANS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2019
.DISCUSSION...
BUSY THIS AFTERNOON, SO LITTLE TIME TO WRITE. CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT HOLDING ACROSS ERN TX. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT... OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO NERN TX WILL
BECOME EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK CAPPING, WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SMALL BOW ECHOES AND SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS (CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
AFTERNOON). EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF HOUSTON ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD, TRAILING END OF
THE FRONT WILL PIVOT MORE NE-SW ORIENTATION AND LIMIT CONVERGENCE.
FORTUNATELY, H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER
HEAVIEST AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
TORNADO WATCH AND THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... TOMORROW SHOULD START SIMILAR TO TODAY.
HOWEVER, BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE TODAY'S SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS. BY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR THE
STALLED FRONT, WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN TX OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A REPEAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PARAMETERS
CERTAINLY IN PLAY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WPC DAY 2/3) MDT RISKS
CERTAINLY VALID. WHO GETS THE WORST OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
WHEN REMAINS IN THE FINE DETAILS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE SCIENCE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME, TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS
WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. HOWEVER,
WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 5-8" WITH HIGHER TOTALS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
BEYOND SATURDAY... WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS TO BE IN THE
FORECASTS AT LEAST INTO WED.
EVANS
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
is there confirmation of a tornado touch down in c.s. today? any info? thanks
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19611
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Nothing official yet. Bet there are several videos out there in wx twitter world of the event...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Had flashbacks to Harvey yesterday afternoon through today. Numerous cars stalled and in the median along Settlers Way in Sugar Land. Our subdivision and many others flooded due to the Levee District closing the gates to the Brazos as it was already running high. Needless to say, been at home all day today with water slowly being pumped out. Didn't get into our house but it sure is wet outside. The lightning, thunder and torrential rain was a true Texas Gullywasher yesterday and last evening. Hoping this does not repeat itself.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Its amazing that you guys in Houston get a deluge of 14” of rain and just a tad NE of you here in Beaumont, in The last 3 days many have not seen a drop. I had sprinkles just west of Beaumont but that quickly deminished. Have a feeling Thu-Sat will tell a diff story for us but until then, many of us in Beaumont are hurting for rain. Hope I didnt speak too soon as we certainly dont need 14” in a day like you guys. Prayers for all of you flooded out of your homes.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Totally caught us off guard. Wasn't expecting the real heavy rain to set up til tomorrow through Saturday. Mother nature sure likes to remind us who is boss.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
I guess it's your turn not to keep up with us on rain accumulation. I think I remember during Harvey that Beaumont was hanging with us inch for inch, until Harvey finally decided to pay a visit to y'all. We conceded. Y'all hang in there.djmike wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 5:50 pm Its amazing that you guys in Houston get a deluge of 14” of rain and just a tad NE of you here in Beaumont, in The last 3 days many have not seen a drop. I had sprinkles just west of Beaumont but that quickly deminished. Have a feeling Thu-Sat will tell a diff story for us but until then, many of us in Beaumont are hurting for rain. Hope I didnt speak too soon as we certainly dont need 14” in a day like you guys. Prayers for all of you flooded out of your homes.
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php
60 Hour Forecast
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 2019050812
Analog Table
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 12&map=tbl
Some of the analog dates raise eyebrows.
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php
60 Hour Forecast
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 2019050812
Analog Table
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR ... 12&map=tbl
Some of the analog dates raise eyebrows.
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