February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[wxman57]

The GFS ensembles are showing a mighty big winter storm around February 24-27th. While we are getting later in the season, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we may see one more big TX Winter Storm before we finally break this pattern that has plagued us since December. In the meantime, enjoy the sun and dry but cool weather this week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... sloop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... sloop.html

They do show "something somewhere" in TX during that time, and some show nothing. Not much agreement other than that there may be a weather event somewhere in Texas the last week of February.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS ensembles are showing a mighty big winter storm around February 24-27th. While we are getting later in the season, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we may see one more big TX Winter Storm before we finally break this pattern that has plagued us since December. In the meantime, enjoy the sun and dry but cool weather this week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... sloop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... sloop.html

They do show "something somewhere" in TX during that time, and some show nothing. Not much agreement other than that there may be a weather event somewhere in Texas the last week of February.

Oh, I agree wxman57. I did state it is getting late in the season, but as you have posted on several occasions this pattern may not break until Mid March. Part of the reason behind posting the ensembles is to let folks make a judgment on their own. As you have pointed out many time, the GFS will show something somewhere in TX and will likely be right, but the wrong location. I just hope the mother lode of bottled up cold air doesn't try to descend S and we will all be in the deep freeze.

[jasonhoutx]

no one answered my question on the old board.

Is it possible that El Niño will stick around and we will have a summer like the last one? I can really dig another hot summer with no Hurricanes.

[kayci]

no one answered my question on the old board.

Is it possible that El Niño will stick around and we will have a summer like the last one? I can really dig another hot summer with no Hurricanes.

DITTO!

[TexasMetBlake]

Jason, I think last summer has affected your ability to think properly. Your talking rubbish already! Another hot summer? Please tell me this is a joke. Am I on Candid Camera?

[jasonhoutx]

Jason, I think last summer has affected your ability to think properly. Your talking rubbish already! Another hot summer? Please tell me this is a joke. Am I on Candid Camera?

nope, I love the sun and hot stuff. The more the better, thats why I live in Houston. The added benefit of last summers pattern is we didn't have to run from a stupid hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

no one answered my question on the old board.

Is it possible that El Niño will stick around and we will have a summer like the last one? I can really dig another hot summer with no Hurricanes.

El Niño is expected to fade by the summer. Keep in my mind, some really hot summers in Houston occurred in Neutral and La Niña. La Niña is hot and dry for Houston as well, but hurricane season is more active. Neutral is generally hot and dry, but hurricane season is a mixed bag, active or not as active. 1980 summer was very hot and it was Neutral. I remember the summer of 1997 was an El Niño and it was not that hot compared to 2009.

[TexasMetBlake]

Jason, I think last summer has affected your ability to think properly. Your talking rubbish already! Another hot summer? Please tell me this is a joke. Am I on Candid Camera?

nope, I love the sun and hot stuff. The more the better, thats why I live in Houston. The added benefit of last summers pattern is we didn't have to run from a stupid hurricane.

Well just for the record, I have been tickled pink by this winter. I'm loving this. I was so cotton-picken miserable last summer. You know what they say...payback's a *cough*

[Ptarmigan]

Well just for the record, I have been tickled pink by this winter. I'm loving this. I was so cotton-picken miserable last summer. You know what they say...payback's a *cough*

LOL! I like mild weather, but not too hot. I don't want another cockroach ridge during the summer.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 PM CST MON FEB 15 2010

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

.CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A COLD DRY AIR MASS SETTLING
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LIGHT FREEZE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER TWENTIES WITH NORTH WINDS TO DIMINISH AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ALL AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION TO INLAND CAMERON...SOUTHERN HIDALGO
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES CAN EXPECT A
FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

TXZ248>254-160330-
/O.UPG.KBRO.FZ.A.0005.100216T0600Z-100216T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.W.0005.100216T0600Z-100216T1500Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE
134 PM CST MON FEB 15 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO AND ALL OF
CAMERON COUNTIES AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. UP TO 4
HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH AS FEW AS TWO
HOURS IN URBAN AREAS AND AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS OR MORE IN RURAL AREAS.

[wxman57]

Perhaps we should start another thread to discuss the upcoming hurricane season? I have a few thoughts, but won't post them here so that we don't stray too far off-topic.

[ticka1]

Good idea wxman....only 3 1/2 months until the official start of the season.....it will be here before we know it.

[sleetstorm]

What can people in SE Texas anticipate during the last week and weekend of this month, weatherwise? Should I desist praying & waiting for more sleet and snow after this month is done or wait until sometime next month since wxman57 stated that this cold and wintry pattern could feasably last into next moth.

[Paul]

The 12z GFS really shows nothing out until 288hr which it isnt much. I think we will see near normal temps from here on out. Of course I said that until the last front pushed through.

[C2G]

The 12z GFS really shows nothing out until 288hr which it isnt much. I think we will see near normal temps from here on out. Of course I said that until the last front pushed through.

Well then........my prayers have been answered.

[wxman57]

What can people in SE Texas anticipate during the last week and weekend of this month, weatherwise? Should I desist praying & waiting for more sleet and snow after this month is done or wait until sometime next month since wxman57 stated that this cold and wintry pattern could feasably last into next moth.

Although there are indicators which suggest winter is far from over across the U.S., I'm not seeing anything specific for next week at this time as far as any winter weather threat (or opportunity?). There are hints of another moderate West Gulf Low late next week, but there is too much variance in the models and from run to run in the same models to have any confidence in such a storm.

Now I've seen some pretty cold weather even through March down here, and I'm expecting the much below normal temperatures to persist through next month. It's not out of the question that we could get some frozen precip down here as late as March, but that's just a possibility, not a forecast.

[niner21]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

[wxdata]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

The closest city that the models spit out data for is Del Rio. The GFS shows middle 60's Friday, low 70's Saturday, upper 70's Sunday (all for Del Rio.) Overnights in the 40's and 50's. A few showers possible. NWS forecast for Rocksprings seems to be just about right.

[wxman57]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

The GFS puts out data for any lat/lon, so there is data for Rocksprings (30.02N/-100.21W). You can find it on the ARL website (http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php). I made a meteogram for you to indicated temps/precip this weekend. Looks nice. Lows in the low 50s, highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. That's warm to you? I've never camped in that cold of weather.

[srainhoutx]

Pattern is giving the models fits! It was 27 at my location this morning with a heavy frost.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
402 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 20 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 23 2010


USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES
DAYS 3-6...BLENDING IN ABOUT A THIRD OF THE 12Z/15 ECENS MEAN DAY
7 MAINLY TO SOFTEN THE CYCLOGENESIS SIGNATURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OFF
THE WEST COAST COMING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE DAY 3 OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FACTORS HEAVILY INTO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. DURING THE PAST WEEK...THE GFS...AND THEN THE ECMWF
DEVELOPED A STRONG CYCLONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE
22ND OF THE MONTH...AND HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY BACKED OFF THAT IDEA.
THE CURRENT CYCLE BRINGS THE WAVE BACK...WITH THE GFS ON THE FLAT
END OF THE ENVELOPE...THE GEM GLOBAL DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW
OFFSHORE...AND THE ECMWF BOMBING OUT A MONSTER RIGHT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ORIGINAL SOLUTIONS
DEPICTING THE EVENT. THE INCORPORATION OF THE MOST RECENT EC MEAN
SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE BITE OUT OF A MASSIVE ERROR ON THE PART OF
THE ECMWF...BUT...THE PRELIMINARY MANUAL PROGS ARE STILL PRO-STORM
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE BLOCK GETS SO STRONG THIS
PERIOD...THAT THE SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE WEST COAST GET RIPPED TO
PIECES...WITH POOR ONSHORE FLOW.

CISCO