February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

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snowman65
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Portastorm wrote:Didn't see anyone post this yet so I thought I would ... link below to Larry Cosgrove's latest blog entry. He's basically saying look for a major Arctic outbreak in the next 10 days which could set some new record lows in Texas. He's also bullish on one more winter storm. After about Feb. 25th though ... seems like he's suggesting the pattern relaxes and winter may be over (or at least return to normal climatological values).

The link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -600-PM-CT
This is the part I read referring to that storm (Rain and thunderstorms will be the predicament this time around from TX and OK through the Deep South).......looks like normal rain and TS for Se Tx...Unless I read it wrong.
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kayci
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Portastorm wrote:Didn't see anyone post this yet so I thought I would ... link below to Larry Cosgrove's latest blog entry. He's basically saying look for a major Arctic outbreak in the next 10 days which could set some new record lows in Texas. He's also bullish on one more winter storm. After about Feb. 25th though ... seems like he's suggesting the pattern relaxes and winter may be over (or at least return to normal climatological values).

The link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -600-PM-CT
:cry: is it summer yet?
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srainhoutx
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Portastorm wrote:Didn't see anyone post this yet so I thought I would ... link below to Larry Cosgrove's latest blog entry. He's basically saying look for a major Arctic outbreak in the next 10 days which could set some new record lows in Texas. He's also bullish on one more winter storm. After about Feb. 25th though ... seems like he's suggesting the pattern relaxes and winter may be over (or at least return to normal climatological values).

The link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -600-PM-CT
LC forecast are some what correct and in line with what Don Sutherland has stated regarding a relaxing of the blocking pattern. With that said, AO as well as NAO are still very negative. Also, while the GFS ensembles suggested yesterday that the PNA would begin it's fall to neutral, it still continues to climb slowly and remain positive...we shall see...

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wxman57
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Oh sugar. Fudge!

Only a tenth falls in the next 12 hours after the 850 mb freezing line comes through.

But still, an inch or two of snow on my birthday, I'd have to call in sick to work and frolic...
Made up a meteogram of the raw data for you, Ed, mostly because I was curious about what the GFS was forecasting in terms of precipitation timing and the vertical profile.

Meteogram based on 06Z GFS:
Image

It does show temps above freezing. HOWEVER, the projected vertical profile is quite interesting. The GFS indicates temps aloft are all well below freezing before the precip ends, a snow signature. Here's the forecast sounding loop. Look for the images on Feb 28 - March 1 where the red/green lines are together (clouds/precip) to the left of the 0C diagonal isotherm line.

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/readyout/7450 ... f_anim.gif

So the GFS is forecasting snow at 338 hrs. Interesting, but not something I'd consider likely when the GFS predicts a completely different weather for the same date every 6 hours. 00Z GFS had temps in the 50s for your birthday with little or no precip and certainly no chance of snow on the days surrounding March 1st.

Wouldn't you rather have nice 85 degree sunny weather on your birthday after this miserable cold and rainy winter?
redneckweather
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My wife just sent me this picture of my inlaws house which is just off of Hwy. 105 West right before the San Jacinto River. The sleet was coming down pretty good last night and it looks to have accumulated on their roof! Who would of thunk it. I told her to climb up on the roof to make sure that wasn't snow. :shock: :mrgreen:
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wxman57
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12Z GFS says "NO SNOW FOR YOU!", Ed. Sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. The long-range GFS will be just about worthless in this pattern.
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wxman, check yout pm's when you get a sec. Thanks.
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wxman57
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Made a few meteograms off the 12Z GFS. Drier and warmer. I like it! But not nearly warm enough for me. Unfortunately, the GFS is performing so poorly beyond 3-4 days that I wouldn't even trust it for the coming weekend's weather much less 10-15 days from now.

GFS Meteogram of 12Z Raw Data:
Image

GFS Extended Forecast out to 384 hrs:
Image
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srainhoutx
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The GFS ensembles are showing a mighty big winter storm around February 24-27th. While we are getting later in the season, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we may see one more big TX Winter Storm before we finally break this pattern that has plagued us since December. In the meantime, enjoy the sun and dry but cool weather this week. 8-)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... sloop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... sloop.html
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ticka1
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As we know Texas is a really big state so this could hold for DFW or the panhandle but not us.....guess we will just have to wait and see...I got Ed's attitude on this one.
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