February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[sambucol]

Feasible lower thirties to twenties if not colder for daytime highs with feasible twenties to teens for nighttime lows?

That's cold. Possible snow?

[randybpt]

I don't think so, highs in the upper 30's maybe more like temps in 40's depending on cloud cover which in this case would be a good bet no lows in the teens not even close more like upper 20's to near 30. remember guys it is almost march and sun angle is against us. still long ways out but if this pattern was set up in late december or january then i think we would have some problems with deep freeze.

[Portastorm]

I don't think so, highs in the upper 30's maybe more like temps in 40's depending on cloud cover which in this case would be a good bet no lows in the teens not even close more like upper 20's to near 30. remember guys it is almost march and sun angle is against us. still long ways out but if this pattern was set up in late december or january then i think we would have some problems with deep freeze.

I would respectfully disagree. This winter has proven to be a historic one and the larger-scale atmospheric parameters continue to point to a major Arctic outbreak later this month. While your "sun angle" point is a credible one, whatever effect that would have will easily be overridden by cross-polar flow transported into the Southern Plains. Furthermore, with an airmass that stout, it is likely to push the southern jet well south of us ... meaning little cloud cover and what I would consider not "a good bet." Finally, Wxman57 has demonstrated that he doesn't buy into model hype so when he quotes temperatures, you better believe it!

[randybpt]

well, good point bout this being a HISTORIC winter but WXMAN did not quote temps actually that was sleetstorm asking what temps to expect in a form of a question. now being historic is really not what this winter has been for us maybe mid-atlantic states but this winter is really just typical southeast texas winters.....1970's style

[Portastorm]

well, good point bout this being a HISTORIC winter but WXMAN did not quote temps actually that was sleetstorm asking what temps to expect in a form of a question. now being historic is really not what this winter has been for us maybe mid-atlantic states but this winter is really just typical southeast texas winters.....1970's style

Oops! Thanks for pointing that out, randybpt. My bad. I would stand by all my points but the last one!

I guess what I mean is that the entire winter weather pattern for the nation has been historic. Seldom do we see a moderate El Nino accompanied by so many frequent blocking episodes and stratospheric warming like we have seen this year. It has been a historic winter for North Texas and, if you consider the early December snow in parts of SE Texas, it has been somewhat historic there. For my area ... there's been nothing historic about it. But I'll spare everyone more of my whining about the lack of wintry precip in Austin.

I would agree that we are quickly running out of time in terms of longer days, sun angle, etc. But if the sensible weather ends up like many pro long-range mets think, it could indeed overpower the daylight/sun factor in this part of the world. I guess we'll see.

[C2G]

I was told to move last time I mentioned this winter (minus the Dec. 4th snow) has been boring in southeast Texas........so be careful. There's some on this board that take deviations from normal temperatures to heart and consider that plus cold rain EXCITING.
Bring on the heat. Place I'm living in is much more efficient in the summer Vs. winter. My electric bill for that oh so EXCITING arctic outbreak minus precip was the highest I've ever had here in 3 years. That bill is anything BUT exciting.
GFS forecast precip still shows no frozen precip in southeast Texas for the next 7 days, sorry.

[wxman57]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

How "possibly cold"? Low teens or even single digits would certainly be "possible" with cross-Polar flow and an ice pack down through Oklahoma - even in February. It's much easier to get that kind of cold down here given the current snowcover than in December at the start of winter. But just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. There are too many variables to even speculate on temps here for the last week of February and early March. The air is still across the Pole in Siberia. We don't know for sure IF any will cross over and how cold it might be if it does move south through Canada.

[sambucol]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

How "possibly cold"? Low teens or even single digits would certainly be "possible" with cross-Polar flow and an ice pack down through Oklahoma - even in February. It's much easier to get that kind of cold down here given the current snowcover than in December at the start of winter. But just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. There are too many variables to even speculate on temps here for the last week of February and early March. The air is still across the Pole in Siberia. We don't know for sure IF any will cross over and how cold it might be if it does move south through Canada.

Is the cold air going to be as cold as the pipe-busting cold we had in January? Colder? Thanks.

[Mr. T]

I was told to move last time I mentioned this winter (minus the Dec. 4th snow) has been boring in southeast Texas........so be careful. There's some on this board that take deviations from normal temperatures to heart and consider that plus cold rain EXCITING.
Bring on the heat. Place I'm living in is much more efficient in the summer Vs. winter. My electric bill for that oh so EXCITING arctic outbreak minus precip was the highest I've ever had here in 3 years. That bill is anything BUT exciting.
GFS forecast precip still shows no frozen precip in southeast Texas for the next 7 days, sorry.

lol

You need to find a new hobby. You're the worst weather enthusiast I've ever seen.

[randybpt]

you think you have it bad what bout ranchers,,,,last summers drought meant less hey which in turn means less food for cattle you like beef wait til spring when cattle prices surge up

[redneckweather]

Yea bring on the heat. Now THAT is exciting.

[wxman57]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

How "possibly cold"? Low teens or even single digits would certainly be "possible" with cross-Polar flow and an ice pack down through Oklahoma - even in February. It's much easier to get that kind of cold down here given the current snowcover than in December at the start of winter. But just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. There are too many variables to even speculate on temps here for the last week of February and early March. The air is still across the Pole in Siberia. We don't know for sure IF any will cross over and how cold it might be if it does move south through Canada.

Is the cold air going to be as cold as the pipe-busting cold we had in January? Colder? Thanks.

It's possible but not likely. Models aren't even forecasting it to come down here yet. It's in the very early stages of setting up a pattern that COULD bring it down.

[C2G]

you think you have it bad what bout ranchers,,,,last summers drought meant less hey which in turn means less food for cattle you like beef wait til spring when cattle prices surge up

Sorry about the ranchers. Just talking about my personal experiences with this exciting cold weather. I don't know, but I'd probably be more inclined to buy a few T-bones, maybe a fillet or two if my electric bill didn't put me in the poor house?
Don't things grow in the spring.......maybe things the cattle feed off of?

[C2G]

It's possible but not likely. Models aren't even forecasting it to come down here yet. It's in the very early stages of setting up a pattern that COULD bring it down.

Here's hoping the models don't forecast the cold air to surge south, unless the models want to bring snow to this area. Otherwise, it's just cold and miserable weather.
Feeling very enthusiastic about warmth and spring.

[srainhoutx]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-196-198-151145-
BRAZOS-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
533 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE WATER ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES COULD LEAD TO ICY
ROADS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 31 DEGREE RANGE INLAND
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

[srainhoutx]

12Z NAM suggests we may not get above freezing until Wednesday now.

[wxman57]

Just out of curiosity, I made a couple of meteograms for Houston off the 06Z (12AM) GFS run. Now by no means is this what I think will actually happen here, it's just what the GFS is saying. Long-range signals (very low AO/NAO, warm PDO) and the long-range EC indicate cross-Polar flow developing that could bring some very cold air out of Siberia. But the GFS sees none of this.

Hours 0-180:


Hours 180-384:

[srainhoutx]

Just out of curiosity, I made a couple of meteograms for Houston off the 06Z (12AM) GFS run. Now by no means is this what I think will actually happen here, it's just what the GFS is saying. Long-range signals (very low AO/NAO, warm PDO) and the long-range EC indicate cross-Polar flow developing that could bring some very cold air out of Siberia. But the GFS sees none of this.

Hours 0-180:


Hours 180-384:

HPC is thinking the Euro is more correct. We will see...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
803 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

VALID 12Z THU FEB 18 2010 - 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE IN TIME THIS PERIOD AS THE WRN CONUS
RIDGE RETROGRADES ABOUT 10 DEGREES. A MEAN VORTEX LOCKS IN OVER
THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL ERN
SHIFT TO EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES OVER LOWER DAVIS STRAIT WITH THE NEG AO/NAO
PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SWD TO NEAR 70N 100W. THIS
FEATURES ARE AGREED UPON.

WESTWARD AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES TO THE EPAC HTS BUILD
NWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST INTO THE YUKON AND ERN AK INTO A CLOSED
MID LEVEL HIGH WITH GFS AGAIN TODAY ALLOWING MORE UNDERCUTTING
FLOW. ECMWF AND ITS MEAN ALONG WITH THE UKMET DROP SWD MUCH MORE
ENERGY FROM ALBERTA FORMING A DEEPER TROF OVER AND TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES SUPRESSING THE SRN STREAM FLOW LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND.
IN TIME..BY DAY 8 BOTH MODELS BUILD AN EPAC REX BLOCK BUT ECMWF
AND ITS ENS MEAN HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MID NATION TROF CONTINING TO
SUPRESS THE SRN STREAM FLOW WITH GFS AND ITS MEAN LESS AMPLIFIED
AND HAVING A STRONGER SRN STREAM. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON THE ERN
NOAM POSITIVE HT ANOMALY NEAR DAVIS STRAIT INDICATE SOME MDT EPAC
RIDGING AND A TROF OVER ERN CONUS. TELECONNECTING ON THE WRN
ANOMALY ALONG THE SRN AK COAST YIELDS A TROF FROM THE HUDSON BAY
REGION TO SOUTHWEST CONUS. THESE DUAL VERY STRONG POSITIVE
ANOMALIES WOULD YIELD A HYBRID OF THE TELECONNECTIONS THIS PERIOD
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. WHILE THE GFS FORECAST OF THE PNA
PATTERN IS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY STRONGLY
NEGATIVE AO/NAO BELIEVE THE LONGER TERM GFS IN ERROR AND THE
STRONGER PNA TYPE PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF A CENTRAL TO ERN CONUS TROF WILL
PREVAIL. D+8 ANALOGS THAT BEST FIT A STRONG NEG AO/NAO AND WARM
ENSO YEARS CONT TO BE FEB 1978 AND 1958.
HPC PRELIM PROGS START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
ITS ENS MEANS FOR DAYS 3-5 WED/THU INCREASING TO A DOMINENT ECMWF
ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7 SAT/SUN.

BREEZY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER ERN CONUS WED TO
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SWD OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE SOME
LT UPSLOPE SNOWS THRU THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK. ECMWF AND ITS MEAN PREFERENCE OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF
SWINGING THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK INDICATE A
POTENTIAL HVY SNOW THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CO TO KS AND
MO FRI AND SAT.
ROSENSTEIN

[srainhoutx]

FYI: extremeweatherguy in OKC is reporting a heavy snow squall at this hour.

[C2G]

We just can't escape the cold air........yet. Looks like our northern counties could get some wintry precip this evening. The long range continues to show more cold air in our future.

NWS-Houston/Galveston
increasing moisture though not abundant
by any stretch am expecting some patchy light rain and isolated
showers to develop along and ahead of the front this afternoon.
The tricky part will be tonight...GFS has been progging the cold
air to drive south faster than the NAM and with the upper jet
streak sweeping through the area sufficient Post frontal lift for
rain looks to be present...in the extreme north and northeast
counties the profile appears to be cold and moist enough for a mix
of rain and snow...the surface doesn't look to get cold enough
during this quick shot to accumulate any significant
accumulations...on car tops and grass maybe but that should be
about it.

Still expecting
increasingly cloudy skies Thursday...overcast and periods of rain
Thursday night- Saturday as low treks east and another cold front
plunges south on Saturday. GFS/European model (ecmwf) now agree on arrival time of
the cold front 12z Saturday into the County Warning Area. Overrunning clouds and
rain Saturday and Sunday. Still some question on how cold the
airmass will be but will need to keep a close eye on it as it has
been trending colder.