February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[weatherguy425]

Something's going on with the GFS page, but it appeared that it cut off precip before hieghts become cool enough for the houston metro....will post grpahics as soon as the websiteis back up

[TexasMetBlake]

0z GFS is running. Stand by..

[Mr. T]

Something's going on with the GFS page, but it appeared that it cut off precip before hieghts become cool enough for the houston metro....will post grpahics as soon as the websiteis back up

Whatever you are looking at, that isn't correct.

[weatherguy425]

ew that's so wierd it was out to like hour 120 on the 0z, I was sure of it... now its only on hour 18?

[Mr. T]

0z GFS is running. Stand by..

Go study

I'll tell you when it takes away our snow

[Andrew]

Something's going on with the GFS page, but it appeared that it cut off precip before hieghts become cool enough for the houston metro....will post grpahics as soon as the websiteis back up

Whatever you are looking at, that isn't correct.

Yea we haven't even gotten to hour 24 yet...

Now it is...

[sleetstorm]

Something's going on with the GFS page, but it appeared that it cut off precip before hieghts become cool enough for the houston metro....will post grpahics as soon as the websiteis back up

Uh oh, that is not good, weatherguy425.

[rnmm]

Thank you sleetstorm...the kiddos are just excited!! We appreciate it!! I can always hope and pray!!

[Mr. T]

Something's going on with the GFS page, but it appeared that it cut off precip before hieghts become cool enough for the houston metro....will post grpahics as soon as the websiteis back up

Whatever you are looking at, that isn't correct.

Yea we haven't even gotten to hour 24 yet...

Now it is...

also, "hieghts become cool enough" doesn't make any sense

[TexasMetBlake]

I encourage you guys to open up a second tab and load the 18z gfs in one tab and open the 0z gfs in another and toggle back and forth. You can see the sutlte differences...

[Andrew]

I encourage you guys to open up a second tab and load the 18z gfs in one tab and open the 0z gfs in another and toggle back and forth. You can see the sutlte differences...

Yea I was just doing that. (Got to love Windows 7). Not really anything new out to hour 30...

[weatherguy425]

also, "hieghts become cool enough" doesn't make any sense

If you looked at the "former" GFS or whatever I saw by the time the 0 degree line was far enough south to produce snow (hour 60), the next set (hour 66) didnt show that any precip had fallen, so basically just flurries would have fallen according to that model.

[Andrew]

At hour 42, their is more moisture to work with, but so far the freezing mark is identical to the 18z run.

[TexasMetBlake]

WOW, toggle back and forth between 18z and 0z and NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE! Precip a good bit further south at 42 hours...and colder--albeit slightly

[sleetstorm]

If a good band of moderate to heavy sleet/snow could just form and move into southeast Texas, and again, rain down long enough at a heavy enough rate then south and southeast Texas would be in business in getting it to stick and getting some accumluation.

[Andrew]

Everyone has some more fun:

[Mr. T]

also, "hieghts become cool enough" doesn't make any sense

If you looked at the "former" GFS or whatever I saw by the time the 0 degree line was far enough south to produce snow (hour 60), the next set (hour 66) didnt show that any precip had fallen, so basically just flurries would have fallen according to that model.

Our focus is now on the 48 and 54 frames, so I don't know what you were looking at

Anyway, this run is definitely slightly colder (like the NAM) and shows an area of widespread light precip by 6z wednesday. Snow to the coast

[Mr. T]

Definitely nothing "holy cow! We're gonna get slammed!", but this run is telling me that we will all likely see some snow, however light it may be...

There's still a question as to if we can get this stuff to accumulate. This run does show areas farther north, like around CLL and UTS, could see several inches (4"+?)!

We've got a fun system ahead

[weatherguy425]

OK guys remember what wxman has said before...if you look ta hour 54 the 0 degree line is clear to the coast so what you need todo is go ahead and look at hour 60 to see what has accumulated and look..NOTHING



EDIT: to have to take out the pic, wont fit

[TexasMetBlake]

The 0z GFS is noticeably lighter with the QPF, but who cares. It's just a model. Bring on the snow bands. That's what matters. After reviewing this, I'd say we're just a few hours away from being under a Winter Storm Watch for at least a lot of us.