February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

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weatherguy425
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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by weatherguy425 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:18 pm

I am getting pretty much all sleet BUT the band has set up south of me so im only getting occasional light precip

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srainhoutx
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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:27 pm

Just got a report from vbhoutex near Spring Branch. All sleet.
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Mr. T
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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by Mr. T » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:28 pm

More sleet in Kingwood

Of course, HGX is behind the curve and isn't mentioning this in the forecast for tonight.

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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by weatherguy425 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:29 pm

Is there some sort of disturbance up in NE New Mexico, lookin at radar there's something up there...

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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by vbhoutex » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:53 pm

weatherguy425 wrote:Is there some sort of disturbance up in NE New Mexico, lookin at radar there's something up there...
I notice that too. Haven't checked anything yet since I've been busy with the sleet here. I've had heavy sleet showers to the point of minor accumulation on my vehicles here in the spring Branch area of Houston.

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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by weatherguy425 » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:56 pm

i read that on S2K...Lucky!! I've been on the northern fringe of the band the whole time!

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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:42 am

Appears to be a lot of uncertainty via the HPC Morning Prelim Discussion on just how things will play out this week...but the ECMWF and it's ensemble members are the choice for now...
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
818 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 19 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 22 2010

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED LARGE SCALE MEAN FLOW THRU THE PERIOD BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL ISSUES THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO BE
RESOLVED. MEANS SHOW TWO PROMINENT CORES OF POSITIVE HGT
ANOMALIES... ONE NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT AND ANOTHER CLOSE TO THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. A MODERATE NEG ANOMALY CENTER SHOULD EVOLVE OFF
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE UNDER NEG
HGT ANOMALIES AS WELL. THIS ANOMALY PATTERN IS ASSOC WITH REX
BLOCK TYPE CONFIGURATIONS COVERING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES/GREENLAND REGION AND ERN PAC/NWRN NOAM. ALSO
UNDERCUTTING PAC FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE WRN CONUS BY FRI-SAT.

HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY THIS FCST PERIOD INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF SRN
CANADA/NWRN CONUS ENERGY AS AN UPR HIGH CLOSES OFF NEAR OR JUST E
OF THE AK PANHANDLE... AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ERN PAC
ENERGY. LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS GENERALLY INDICATE MORE SRN
CANADA/NWRN CONUS ENERGY MAY RETROGRADE COMPARED THE 00Z UKMET/CMC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. LACK OF A WELL DEFINED CONSENSUS FAVORS A
BLEND AMONG THE RANGE OF CURRENT SOLNS. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
00Z GFS BECOMES A NRN OUTLIER WITH ITS UPR LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
BY DAY 7 MON WITH THE 06Z GFS COMPARING MUCH BETTER TO
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. HOWEVER TO DIFFERING DEGREES BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BRING MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. THE CONSENSUS APPEARS MORE
REASONABLE BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO AK PANHANDLE/DAVIS
STRAIT RIDGING... WHICH COMBINED WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TROFFING
FROM SRN CANADA AND NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO THE ERN CONUS.

THERE IS FAIR CLUSTERING OF SOLNS WITH AN ERN PAC SHRTWV FCST TO
REACH THE WEST COAST BY DAY 5 SAT WITH 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS HOLDING
THIS ENERGY FARTHER NWWD AT THAT TIME COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS. EWD MOTION OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING A WAVE INTO THE ERN CONUS BY DAY 7 MON. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
TO OFFER AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE TRACK IN LIGHT OF POOR ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT ORIENTATION OF NRN
STREAM FLOW WHICH WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION.

EARLIER IN THE FCST ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A COMPACT
SHRTWV/UPR LOW FCST TO BE OVER ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS AS OF DAY 3 THU.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING/TRACK ALREADY
BY DAY 4 FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE BROAD SOLN SPREAD...
BETWEEN THE FAST/NWD 06Z GFS AND SLOW 00Z GFS. THE UKMET/CMC ARE
FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS. HOPEFULLY 12Z GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME
IMPROVED CLUSTERING WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST USES A BLEND INCORPORATING HALF WEIGHTING
OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE REMAINDER CONSISTING OF THE 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... AS THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES BETTER TO
ENSEMBLES AND TELECONNECTIONS THAN SOME ASPECTS OF LATEST GFS RUNS
AND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT SOME
OPERATIONAL MODEL DETAILS.

RAUSCH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by gregco31 » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:54 am

Again, same system different city. My flight last Wednesday to Philly got cancelled and rescheduled to this wednesday. This one looks like it has a better chance. Are there any suprises I should expect?

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don
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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by don » Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:16 am

FWIW 6z GFS brong back are fantasy winterstorm of the century that it showed a few days ago around the same time :lol:

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Portastorm
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Re: More Cold Air On The Way In Mid/Late February For TX/OK/LA?

Post by Portastorm » Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:52 am

Didn't see anyone post this yet so I thought I would ... link below to Larry Cosgrove's latest blog entry. He's basically saying look for a major Arctic outbreak in the next 10 days which could set some new record lows in Texas. He's also bullish on one more winter storm. After about Feb. 25th though ... seems like he's suggesting the pattern relaxes and winter may be over (or at least return to normal climatological values).

The link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -600-PM-CT

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