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APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month
Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:53 am
by BlueJay
I am wish-casting a perfect Chamber of Commerce like weather for Easter weekend on April 20th and 21st.
But, what is really going to happen?.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Spring Continues
Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:59 am
by Andrew
GFS and ECMWF to a certain degree have been relatively consistent at upper-level flow turning more meridional towards the end of the month into the beginning of April. Could see some increases in rain chances during that period and a good late season front. April may start a little bit on the chilly side if models continue in this direction.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Spring Continues
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:19 pm
by Ptarmigan
We should have a better idea as April comes closer. April has severe weather.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Spring Continues
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:04 am
by srainhoutx
April is looking like it may start off rather chilly. The overnight guidance suggest low 40's possibly upper 30's are not out of the question for morning lows. There may be some over running clouds and showers around as April begins as well.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Spring Continues
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:02 am
by Cpv17
Man, the GFS is very wet! Crickets on the Euro.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:46 am
by Katdaddy
A cold April morning across SE TX with temps in the upper 30s and 40s. Tuesday will be a beautiful day with lots of sun and high around 70F. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday and Thursday. The upcoming weekend continues to look wet.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:34 am
by srainhoutx
We dropped to 38F this morning in NW Harris County. If the clouds clear out, it could be a couple of degrees colder in the morning!
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:01 am
by srainhoutx
Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Unusually strong cold front for early April has progressed well into the Gulf of Mexico this morning with a cold Canadian air mass in place over the region. BUSH IAH has fallen to 39 degrees this morning tying the record low from 1987.
A short wave in the westerly flow aloft is currently moving across TX, but a large layer of dry air below the cloud bearing level is preventing much more than an increase in clouds and a few showers from College Station to Huntsville. Clouds will continue to increase this afternoon with a few isolated showers over the area.
Southeast winds begin to return on Tuesday as the large Canadian surface high moves off to the east. A prolonged onshore flow will develop through the end of the week allowing moisture to gradually build. Models are noting a short wave for Thursday afternoon that may be able to work with the increasing moisture and result in a round of showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms could be strong with hail being the main threat.
Area should see a break in any weather on Friday, before a fairly potent looking storm system approaches from the west this weekend. Moisture values really increase on Saturday with PWS rising over 1.5 inches and nearly to 1.80 inches Saturday evening. A sub-tropical jet stream structure will be in place with upper level winds showing decent looking divergence over the area by Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Upper trough ejects into TX and then begins to slow down some while taking on a slight negative tilt. All this points to high rain chances starting Saturday and likely lasting into Sunday morning. Strong and potentially severe thunderstorms also look possible along with heavy rainfall should the track of this system be maintained over the next few days.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:36 am
by jasons2k
Mother Nature:
It’s springtime!!!!!!
April Fools!!!
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:20 pm
by Belmer
"No April Fool's joke here"... NWS Houston tweeted about several reports of sleet up near College Station.
Re: APRIL 2019: Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:28 pm
by srainhoutx
I see trends via the guidance that suggest a rather strong upper low ejecting out of the Baja Peninsula across Mexico late this week with a negative tilted trough. That typically mean rain and storm chances would be rather high across portion of Texas and our Region. It has been dry the past month and little in the way of appreciable rainfall has come to pass when the models a week out were showing some impressive rainfall totals. In a way some of us don't wish for rain like we once did. It seems we get a flood more often than a good soaking rain!
Best chances look to be over the coming weekend for some meaningful rainfall. Best guess at this time would be a convective system developing across the Higher terrain of Mexico, West of the Rio Grande Valley and then pushing East into S Central Texas Saturday evening. Sunday morning may be a bit wet and stormy locally. We'll watch the trends and keep folks posted.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:32 pm
by jasons2k
37F is my forecast low. Pretty chilly for April.
Austin had a record low this morning of 34F.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:42 am
by djmike
Just hit 38 here in Beaumont at 5:29am. Look like this could be our very last 30’s for this winter shot. Weekend looks stormy and wet as Spring shows whos boss and takes over Saturday.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:43 am
by Katdaddy
A chilly across SE TX this morning.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:49 am
by jasons2k
I had a low of 37. It appears some of the stations touched freezing. If so, a pretty big miss there.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:44 am
by jasons2k
The baseball game was frigid last night and there was some frost on the rooftops this morning. This should hopefully be the last gasp of winter. Now, onto Spring...for real this time.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:56 pm
by srainhoutx
The afternoon Updated 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is looking hopeful regarding some much needed rainfall across our Region. Fingers Crossed!
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:51 pm
by Ptarmigan
Rain would be nice. Even with El Nino there are dry spells.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:43 am
by djjordan
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
115 AM CDT THU APR 4 2019
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 200 AM CDT.
* At 114 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lake Houston,
or near Kingwood, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Kingwood, Plum Grove, Kenefick, Dayton Lakes, Lake Houston Dam,
Lake Houston and Atascocita.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
If on or near Lake Houston, get away from the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
Re: APRIL 2019 -- Cool WX To Start. When Will Rain Return?
Posted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:44 am
by Belmer
We'll need to monitor Saturday carefully as it is looking like we could see a decent storm threat late afternoon... though timing is still uncertain with some models.
SPC AC 040638
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Broad corridor of potential severe will be noted across Texas,
Louisiana, Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. Hail, wind, and
tornadoes are possible. A few strong storms may also develop across
the central High Plains.
...TX to Mid-South...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is forecast to eject across northern
Mexico into south-central TX by the start of the day3 period. Latest
NAM and FV3 agree on the general timing of this feature, though the
FV3 is a bit farther north. Considerable amount of convection is
expected Friday night across portions of TX and storms will likely
be ongoing at the beginning of the period. Latest thinking is
steepest mid-level lapse rates will be overturned Friday night into
Saturday morning but ample moisture/buoyancy will lift north across
the ArkLaTex as a warm front advances north in response to the
ejecting short wave. Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate
across central TX into AR which will encourage organized convection
and embedded supercells within a larger complex of storms. Forecast
soundings favor deep rotating updrafts and while supercells should
evolve, organized line segments may be common, along with clusters
due to warm advection. Overall, day3 convective scenario appears
complex and should generate a diversity of severe threats, including
hail, wind, and tornadoes.
...Central High Plains...
Modified boundary-layer moisture will return across the central High
Plains as a sharp lee trough/front materializes from south-central
SD into eastern CO by late afternoon. Latest guidance suggests
strong boundary-layer heating will be noted from the Black Hills
region into eastern NM. Heating near the surface trough should allow
surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures and isolated
thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Hail is the primary
risk with this diurnally driven convection.
..Darrow.. 04/04/2019