APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.AVIATION...
Onshore winds have returned to the area but moisture return will
be slow to make its comeback tonight (per the low dewpoints over
the Gulf and the strong mixing we have going on right now). How-
ever, as the gradient tightens overnight/tomorrow, we should see
a more rapid influx of low-level moisture. In the meantime, will
be going with brief MVFR CIGS around sunrise. We will likely be-
gin seeing an increase of mid/high clouds tonight. Otherwise, no
major changes from the VFR conditions already in place. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019/

SHORT TERM...
High pressure over LA/MS will allow for southerly winds over SE
Texas today. Overall looking at a warm dry day with high
temperatures getting up into the upper 70s to low 80s and
dewpoints in the 50s. Forecast looks on track in the near term.
Main concern will be the threat for severe weather Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. We will take a look at that with the 12Z
model guidance.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 59 81 67 80 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 80 60 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 73 66 75 70 77 / 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro sucks for our area. 0z looked way better.

[Katdaddy]

A mild morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the 60s and light SSE winds as the GOM moisture returns ahead of the next storm system Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again especially for areas already hard hit across ETX from Saturday’s severe weather and tornadoes. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk area across Central/W OK and W AR, across Central and ETX Wednesday afternoon and evening surrounded by a large Slight Risk area across the S Plains.

[srainhoutx]

The strongest storms look to remain N of Metro Houston with a chance of a weakening squall line approaching in the wee hours of Thursday morning for our area. Storms look to ramp up east of us during the Thursday as a stout West Wind brings an end to rain chances for SE Texas.

Cooler drier air filters in on a NW flow bringing us very pleasant weather for Good Friday. Easter Sunday is looking good with a slight uptick in humidity and sunny and warm weather for those Easter Egg Hunts and outdoor activities!

[unome]

WPC sure looks like they have the "weather" closer to us Wed/Thur

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NationalF ... rt/map.php#

SPC's Day 2 update in a couple hours will be interesting, but for now, the upcoming holiday weekend looks gorgeous

[unome]

this was clarifying, thanks SPC

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1118211235500167174

14/16 12:55 PM CDT: Severe storms capable of scattered damaging winds and very large hail are expected tomorrow (Wednesday) across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas during the day, and eastern Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana overnight. Isolated tornadoes may also occur.

SPC AC 161731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind and hail are expected
Wednesday across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas during the day,
developing into eastern Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana
overnight. A few severe storms are also possible overnight across
Missouri and into western Illinois.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern and central
Plains providing lift, cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer wind
shear. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen over the
TX Panhandle during the day with a dryline arcing across southwest
OK into central TX. Behind the low, a cold front will become quite
strong and will surge south overnight across much of western TX and
OK.

A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will likely develop ahead of the
dryline, extending as far north as southeast KS. Upper 60s dewpoints
are likely generally south of the Red River and along the I-35
corridor in TX. Strong heating will occur west of the dryline, and
when combined with cooling aloft, will result in very steep lapse
rates especially over the TX Panhandle, western OK, and northeast
NM, favorable for rapid storm formation. Damaging wind and hail are
likely from late afternoon across the TX Panhandle, developing
through evening from TX into MO. The greatest risk of significant
severe will be centered over TX and OK.

...OK/TX panhandles, northwest OK, southern KS (Late afternoon) into
Missouri and Illinois (Overnight)...
Storms will rapidly form during the early afternoon over northeast
NM, spreading eastward ahead of the cold front across the OK and
northern TX Panhandles, and eventually into northwest OK and far
southern KS. Very large hail is possible initially, and perhaps a
brief/weak tornado. Then, a transition to damaging winds is expected
as activity produces outflow and surges east/northeastward into
early evening. Wind profiles will be marginally favorable for
supercells given veering with height, but relatively weak in the
low-levels. Still, the very steep lapse rates may compensate, aiding
storm vigor.

During the evening, activity will likely spread across eastern KS,
MO, and into western IL ahead of a cold front. Sufficient
instability may exist to support an ongoing MCS, with wind threat.

...Much of central into northeast TX and Arkansas // Early evening
through overnight...
Strong heating will occur west of the dryline, but capping will
exist most of the day. Storms are forecast to form near or just
after peak heating in TX, and into southwest OK. Steep lapse rates
and long hodographs will favor large damaging hail. Wind profiles
exhibit a veer-back signal in the lower 3 km, suggesting
less-than-optimal supercell/tornado environment. Still, robust
storms capable of severe hail and wind are likely. These will likely
progress eastward during the evening in mixed-mode fashion across
northeast TX and into western AR. Here, a brief tornado is possible,
with stronger SRH overnight (but cooler boundary layer).

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

..Jewell.. 04/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1815Z (1:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[tireman4]

503
FXUS64 KHGX 161616
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1116 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes planned for this update. High clouds moving in
from the west are not expected to impact afternoon temperatures
too much, but the continued onshore winds will help to increase
low-level moisture through the day. Current grids look to be on
track at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
The moderate onshore flow will gradually strengthen tonight and a
longer stronger fetch should help to build seas and increase runup.
Will continue the SCEC for the Gulf waters through 7 PM then up it
to an SCA for all the Gulf waters. Periods of SCA conditions will
prevail through Thursday morning then with the cold frontal passage
will likely return.

Tide levels this morning about 0.5 to 1 foot above normal and these
should creep up as well...more so for the Gulf facing as runup
contributes tonight and Wednesday. Will need to keep an eye on
water levels Wed night as they`ll top out around 3 to 3.5 ft MLLW
which may cause some minor issues at the HWY 124/87 intersection on
the Bolivar Peninsula.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
Mix of VFR/MVFR this morning with cloud streets that abound under
the expanding cirrus shield. CU developing around 2100-2800ft so far
this morning but should rise and likely scatter out more this
afternoon. Strong inversion around 3500 feet should cap out the CU.
Gusty SSE winds on tap throughout the day 10-20g20-29kt should be
the range for most of the inland sites. MVFR ceiling developing
tonight between 02-06z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 67 79 62 74 / 0 20 60 90 20
Houston (IAH) 81 68 79 67 77 / 0 10 50 90 60
Galveston (GLS) 75 70 75 69 77 / 0 10 30 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

NWS SPC

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Another strong storm system will affect TX Wednesday and Thursday with severe weather possible.

Low level warm air advection has returned to the region on SE winds allowing dewpoints to increase into the 60’s. Air mass will continue to moisten and destabilize during the day Wednesday, but mid level capping should prevent much more than a few northward moving showers. Ejection of the SW US trough into the southern plains Wednesday will send a dryline and cold front combo eastward across the state with a resulting line of thunderstorms given favorable moisture, wind shear, and jet stream dynamics. Expect storms to develop mid evening Wednesday across the TX Hill Country and SW TX…mainly as supercells with a very large damaging hail threat. As storms approach and cross I-35, expect the scattered supercells to grow upscale into a line of thunderstorms or line segments with an increasing potential for damaging straight line winds.

SPC outlook for Wednesday has the highest severe threat probabilities across the Brazos Valley and north of HWY 105 or across areas that were very hard hit on Saturday with tornadoes. Capping will begin to increase after dark on Wednesday evening and it is somewhat in question how far south the line of storms will extend across SE TX. Areas around Matagorda Bay may not see much of a line of storms. With areas north of I-10 and especially N of HWY 105 likely seeing the strongest storms and more solid line of weather.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Wednesday):

[/i]

[DoctorMu]

I took a couple of photos of the destructive cell passing north of Bryan towards Franklin on Saturday. It certainly looked ominous and general rotation could be seen. Hope we escape the next round.

[Cpv17]

There’s a strong rain signal (especially for the northern half of the viewing area) coming up on the 24th/25th.

[Texaspirate11]

This was in San Antonio on Saturday at 410 /Ingram Mall
this is the storm that went into Franklin

[Katdaddy]

A few showers and an isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across SE TX. Strong to severe thunderstorms will fire along the dry line late this afternoon and move across the eastern half of TX through the night and early morning hours. The most significant severe weather will be N of Houston similar to last weekend with heavy rain being the main threat. Some large hail and damaging downburst winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that become severe. The main concern will be the timing of the line thunderstorms which will likely be during the Thursday morning Houston rush hour.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the greatest threat for this afternoon into early Thursday could be the heavy rainfall potential mainly along and North of a Columbus, Conroe, Lake Livingston line, where training thunderstorms could drop 2 to 4 inches of heavy rain in about a 6 hour timeframe. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across those portions of our Region.

[Cpv17]

Srain, I think I’m gonna need you to talk about what’s going on with the 0z Euro because wow I understand that’s a ways out though and we have a busy weather day ahead today. Still would like your input if possible please.

[stormlover]

Srain, I think I’m gonna need you to talk about what’s going on with the 0z Euro because wow I understand that’s a ways out though and we have a busy weather day ahead today. Still would like your input if possible please.

What is it showing I don’t see much of anything

[Cpv17]

Srain, I think I’m gonna need you to talk about what’s going on with the 0z Euro because wow I understand that’s a ways out though and we have a busy weather day ahead today. Still would like your input if possible please.

What is it showing I don’t see much of anything

Not much for your area, but a huge swath of 10-20” over south central Texas.

[tireman4]

Wednesday Night Hazardous Outlook

[tireman4]

Reed Timmer Tweet

[stormlover]

Hrr has been struggling as of late