APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF30FE2D8.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CF30FFEF8TX.HGXSPSHGX.956b4c75383e62d09b9ba0ba8c40ac51 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:58 CDT on 04-24-2019
Effective: 12:01 CDT on 04-24-2019
Expires: 15:30 CDT on 04-24-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BURLESON...NORTHERN
GRIMES...EAST CENTRAL BRAZOS AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kyle Field, or near College Station, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, southeastern Bryan, Bedias, Kyle Field, Iola and
Wellborn.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Madison
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch being considered for the Brazos Valley and Northern areas of SE Texas in an little while...
04242019 mcd0435.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and east Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242032Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing MCS over central Texas will eventually enter an
environment favorable for surface-based storms, with all severe
modes possible. A WW is being considered for areas downstream.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing strong to severe MCS continues from near AUS
to near SAT currently. These storms likely remain slightly elevated
atop a cool surface later left behind from early morning convection.
Recent observations suggest that the eastern edge of this cool
layer was eroding due to advection and surface warming, with upper
60s to low 70s F dewpoints now located roughly 50-75 miles
downstream of the ongoing MCS. As these storms migrate eastward,
they will gradually become surface-based, with the ongoing threat
shifting toward damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes. As
such, a Tornado Watch is being considered for areas downstream.

..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Storms really started popping to our SW just over the last hour. Mid evening should be fun.
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sau27
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Meso models continue to be less than impressive with this system once it arrives in our area. Sadly I think the cap wins again.
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srainhoutx
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Harris County and southward not included in the new Severe Thunderstorm Watch...cap has been just too strong today...so far...
Attachments
04242019 ww0099_overview_big_wou.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Looks like some damage reports coming in from Boonville.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cromagnum
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The College Station area and points north have sure been a battle ground these last few events.
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srainhoutx
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Folks in the College Station/Bryan area need to pay attention. Possible Tornado Warning coming for that area shortly associated with squall line heading your way.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 512 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF HEARNE, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WIXON VALLEY AROUND 545 PM CDT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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04242019 mcd0436.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...middle TX coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242223Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/severe
gusts are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates intensifying
updrafts (via glaciation) on the southern portion of the composite
front/outflow draped southwest-northeast across south TX. Visible
imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field along the boundary. As mid-
to upper-level forcing for ascent encroaches on the region as the
shortwave trough moves east this evening, additional storm
development is forecast to occur south of the McMullen/Live Oak
county storm. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary
hazards with the stronger storms this evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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