APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:54 pm According to the 12z Euro, next Saturday is the day to watch for us here in southeast TX.
I have a 5k in college station Saturday. It better cool it with the tornadoes since every system seems to have produced them up there lately.
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:54 pm According to the 12z Euro, next Saturday is the day to watch for us here in southeast TX.
I have a 5k in college station Saturday. It better cool it with the tornadoes since every system seems to have produced them up there lately.


Good luck with your 5K. What time are you shooting for?
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tireman4
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NWS HGX 7 Day Outlook
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tireman4
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697
FXUS64 KHGX 291010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
510 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The warm weather will continue this week. Earlier forecasts
brought a cold front through the region on Thursday/Thursday
night. The current suite of models now bring it close to SETX or
stall it over SETX Saturday.

In the short term the issues are winds and sky cover with the
gradient drawing Gulf moisture into the area. The gradient may
relax a bit today but then strengthen Tuesday. Strong cap should
be in place across the southern half of the region leading to only
a slight/very slight chance of showers with daytime heating.
Closer to the College Station/Crockett area the cap may weaken
enough for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. Chances
increase for precipitation Wednesday as SW flow aloft brings a
series of upper level disturbance through Mexico and up through TX
though the storm track has shifted further northwest with SETX
likely a little more capped than in previous forecasts for
Wednesday...again the greater rain chances will be over the
northern counties. Thursday still is a challenging forecast as
flow aloft becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a
sheared out upper trough...while PW surges up in the region.
GFS/ECMWF still differ dramatically on where deep convection
develops and tracks...ECMWF brings a cluster/line through SETX
while the GFS and (GFS ensemble) takes the heavier precipitation
axis across the far northern counties or just north of the CWA.
This should alleviate some of the heavy rain concerns from
earlier. Of course it will be early May and mesoscale phenomenon
occasionally build upscale altering the forecast and the shortwave
associated with this feature hasn`t been well sampled yet. This
may leave a boundary for later convection to develop off of Friday
so will continue with chance pops Friday. PW forecast for Friday
approaches 2.0" which is closer to the second deviation from
normal. Trend is for the weak frontal boundary to sag close to
or into the northern areas Saturday with weak capping but light
winds in the lower levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should remain in the forecast for Saturday with lower rain chances
for Sunday. Temperatures this week should run near to slight
above normal for highs but above normal for low temperatures with
the relatively persistent onshore flow and Gulf moisture.

45

&&
.MARINE...
While the onshore winds have decreased a bit overnight, do think
that speeds will pick up again later this morning/afternoon. Did
keep the SCEC in place (for the most part) for today through to-
night. Winds/seas should increase to SCA criteria over the near/
offshore waters tonight and persist through perhaps early Thurs.
This weakening pressure gradient...in response to an approaching
(and then stalling) frontal boundary over inland SE TX will help
decrease winds at that time. This boundary and upper level storm
system aloft associated with it will also produce increased rain
chances starting Weds. The unsettled weather is expected to per-
sist through the end of the week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
We`ll likely start the day (and 12Z TAFS) with a mix of IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS as low-level moisture continues to increase over SE TX.
These decks should mix out by the late morning hours with gener-
ally VFR conditions expected for this afternoon. Low clouds with
some very patchy BR will be returning this evening through early
Tues morning. 41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 72 86 71 84 / 0 30 20 30 60
Houston (IAH) 84 72 84 72 83 / 0 20 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 79 73 79 / 0 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT early this
morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...41
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings across the SE TX terminals this
afternoon. Anticipate ceilings to lower back to high MVFR
criteria early this evening before lowering further closer to low
MVFR by the morning hours. Moderate southeasterly winds, gusty at
times, can be expected through the rest of the afternoon before
diminishing slightly during the overnight hours. Winds will still
remain between 10-15 knots overnight with gusty conditions
possible along the coast. With moderate southeasterly winds in
place, thinking ceilings will remain at MVFR criteria, and
struggle to lower further to IFR. If and where the winds lower in
speed, there will be a better possibility for IFR ceilings.
Better moisture returns by early morning, and as a result, some of
these low to middle clouds could result in some scattered showers
starting shortly before before sunrise. Not confident with
development and placement at this time to mention in this TAF
package. Winds also pick back up near sunrise tomorrow, with gusty
conditions expected area wide.

Hathaway
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tireman4
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Cromagnum
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:38 am
Cromagnum wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:54 pm According to the 12z Euro, next Saturday is the day to watch for us here in southeast TX.
I have a 5k in college station Saturday. It better cool it with the tornadoes since every system seems to have produced them up there lately.


Good luck with your 5K. What time are you shooting for?
Im just doing it for fun. This is the Chuck Norris sponsored one where everyone wears a beard and belt buckle
Cpv17
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This is a bit more encouraging..

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Cpv17
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6z GFS is nuts:

Image
Cromagnum
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That's over two weeks away. Zero trust in that.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:52 am That's over two weeks away. Zero trust in that.
Don’t pay attention to the exact totals. The point is that it’s showing a very wet pattern. Same thing on the Euro.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:33 am 6z GFS is nuts:

Image
The amount of river flooding in this area would be very high
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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tireman4
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845
FXUS64 KHGX 301513
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1013 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast looks to be on track. Another mcldy, breezy & humid day
is on tap. Temps only fell to 76 at IAH, 77 at HOU, and 75 at CLL
last night & early this morning. These will be all be record high
minimums for the day assuming they don`t fall below those values
before 1 am CDT. 47

&&
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jasons2k
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Looks like another feast or famine scenario. A wall along I-10...
Cpv17
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jasons wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:31 pm Looks like another feast or famine scenario. A wall along I-10...
Yep and I’m on the dry side as has been the case for a while now.
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