APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

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tireman4
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363
FXUS64 KHGX 241039
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
We have been keeping a close eye on the line of storms over NCTX
through the overnight hours, and have noted its much slower push
to the S/SE. However, there is a weak outflow associated with it
and it appears to be moving into steadily toward our NW counties
at present. This feature may be a concern for later today as the
other ingredients come together for strong/severe storms by late
this afternoon/evening. SE TX is now in the Slight Risk category
for severe weather for later this afternoon through tonight.

We should start the day here fairly quiet/warm/humid with onshore
winds picking up later this morning. As per some of the near-term
models an initial round of storms will be possible along the out-
flow boundary across the Brazos Valley by the afternoon. WV loops
are hinting at a vort max/shortwave (currently about to cross the
Rio Grande) that fits the time frame for this. These rains should
set the stage for potential flooding problems for areas in/around
the Brazos Valley as we head into this evening. A second round of
storms remains possible as the main upper low moves eastward into
our CWA. Progged dynamics continue to look strong and with a very
favorable upper jet pattern/shear profile, the severe threat will
likely remain in place even as the line of storms move into SE TX
during the evening/night time hours. Did add the mention of heavy
rain and possible severe thunderstorms for generally the northern
half of the CWFA this evening. Hail and damaging winds look to be
the primary threats but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out at
this time.

As this upper trof and its associated cold front moves out to the
east, we should see rapidly improving conditions across the area.
Clearing skies with much drier air moving in from the north could
make for favorable insolation for Thurs/Fri. Did lean more toward
the warmer side of MOS numbers for this time frame. Otherwise, no
real change in the extended as the warm temps persist through the
weekend and into the start of next week. Our next best chances of
rain look to be next Tues with the passage of the next upper trof.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Fetch has led to moderate seas of 4 to 6 feet across the UTCW this
morning. As the low over the Big Bend slides off to the ENE
today/tonight will see the SE flow of 10 to 18 knots continue so
will be extending the SCEC into Thursday morning for the 20-60nm
waters.

The cold front should push out into the Gulf Thursday morning
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Given the abundant
instability tonight over the waters would rule out strong storms
with gusty winds. The front lags the outflow boundary but should be
off the coast 8-11 am Thursday. Weak Pacific high noses into and
across SETX and out into the waters before weakening further
followed by a more continental airmass maintaining the offshore flow.
Saturday return flow gets underway and should persist through
Thursday morning. The gradient Tuesday-Thursday is impressive and
could be looking at an extended period of large swells.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Again this morning a mix of IFR (north)-VFR (middle)-MVFR (south)
with winds having backed to the east near the coast and just inland.
Spotty light rain moving out of the eastern Hill Country and into
the CLL area with an outflow boundary pushing into KGRK area.
Expecting the line of storms to the northwest of the area to weaken
but impressive WAA should fuel the development of showers so will be
looking to add VCSH a little sooner to the CLL taf. Throughout the
day expect mix of MVFR/VFR conditions before the upper jet intrudes
and enhances the synoptic scale lift dramatically increasing the
chances for showers/thunderstorms over the CLL area gradually
shifting east and southeast tonight. Significant aviation impacts to
area with a large band of showers and thunderstorms reducing
ceilings/visibility streaming SW to NE through the region. The rains
should taper off and ceilings improve at least briefly after 09z but
some MVFR ceilings could redevelop with frontal
inversion...confidence on persistence of these is low.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 60 78 60 83 / 70 100 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 63 80 62 85 / 40 90 30 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 78 68 80 / 30 90 50 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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04242019 mcd0157.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
926 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...west-central to east-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241321Z - 241900Z

Summary...Rounds of heavy rain with repeating cell motions at
times will pose a flash flood threat into early afternoon from
west-central to east-central Texas. While not expected to be
widespread, flash flooding may occur with regions that pick up 3-5
inches in a 3 hour time frame.

Discussion...12Z surface analysis placed an outflow boundary from
near JDD, southwestward to BAZ and west to DRT. As mid-level
height falls/CVA begin to advance into western Texas ahead of an
eastward advancing closed low in northern Mexico, convection has
picked up to the north of the outflow boundary over the past hour.
850 mb flow was fairly weak at 12Z, with area VAD wind plots and
RAOB data showing roughly 15-20 kt from the south across
south-central Texas. Another low level convergence axis, centered
near 850 mb, was located from near the Big Bend region to just
east of the DFW metroplex. Locations just north of this
convergence axis were co-located with heavy rain from overnight
with roughly 2-4 inches falling. Lastly, a 110 kt upper level jet
streak was approximated via RAP analyses to be over northern
Mexico with strong diffluence and divergence aloft located over
the Trans Pecos region to western portions of the Edwards Plateau.

As the closed low over northern Mexico continues to advance east
over the next 3-6 hours, 850 mb flow is expected to strengthen to
near 30 kt as far north as roughly the I-10 corridor, east of San
Antonio while a somewhat weaker branch of the 850 mb jet curls
northwestward toward the Trans Pecos region. Low level convergence
along the surface outflow should be located with increasing MLCAPE
of near 1000-1500 J/kg per recent RAP/HRRR forecasts and
increasing upper level divergence/diffluence out ahead of the
advancing northern Mexico jet streak. Periods of rain with
rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5 in/hr and 3-hourly rates of 3-5 inches
will be possible in the vicinity of southern portions of the
outflow boundary through 19Z. Farther north near the 850 mb
convergence axis, there will be less available instability but
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low such that
repeating rounds of heavy rain with potential for 2-4 inches on a
localized basis will exist from near FST eastward to roughly ACT
in connection with the slow moving 850 mb axis of convergence.

Otto

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Katdaddy
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Severe threat with all modes increasing for Central and SE TX. Could be interesting being S and SE of the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening if discrete cells develop.

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...central into southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241511Z - 241715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A WW issuance may be needed in portions of the discussion
area - most likely from 16Z onward.

DISCUSSION...Mostly sub-severe convection continues currently amidst
a complicated surface pattern, with a remnant outflow extending from
near CLL to 40 S SAT to near DRT. Surface-based convection persists
near the outflow, with one dominant cell over western Gonzales
county exhibiting signs of mid-level rotation. Though low-level
wind fields remain weak, any favorable interaction between updrafts
associated with this convection along the remnant outflow may result
in a brief tornado.

Over time, strengthening low-level wind fields associated with
low-level cyclogenesis and approach of a mid-level wave centered
over northern Mexico will probably result in 1) stalling and/or slow
northward retreat of the outflow and 2) gradually increased
organization of convection. Any storms near/south of this outflow
will be surface-based owing to near 70F dewpoints, while steepening
mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy and result in an
increased threat for all modes of severe. North of the boundary, a
gradually organizing linear complex near SJT and other scattered
convection near HDO/SAT/AUS may pose a threat for marginally severe
hail and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust. Convective trends
continue to be monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed at some
point after 16Z or so.
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Katdaddy
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 98
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Parts of south central Texas and the Hill Country

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing through the afternoon, with large hail the main threat.
Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado, will be possible
with storms closer to the outflow boundary that will sag southward
near the southern edge of the watch area.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west northwest
of Cotulla TX to 50 miles east southeast of Austin TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
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04242019 mcd0158.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241845Z - 250015Z

SUMMARY...Merging streams of moisture/training repeat cells
through saturated ground conditions pose likely flash flooding
across Northern Texas. Highly efficient but faster moving storms
along front may lead to more scattered possible flash flooding
through 00z over Hill county/South Central Texas

DISCUSSION...Dynamic environmental setup with sufficient to
localized above average moisture in place across Texas. GOES-16
WV suite depicts a deep closed low is tracking across N Chihuahua
with an elongated extension of height-falls associated with a
smaller scale shortwave currently crossing out of the N Coahuila N
of the northern bend of the Rio Grande. An associated 100kt 3H
jet is oriented to favorably enhance divergence near the northeast
edge of the shortwave spurring surface deepening an low level flow
response, while providing excellent upper level outflow for strong
updrafts and deep rainfall production layer. At the surface,
last evening's cold pool remains shallow but in place from COT to
NW of VCT to 3T5, limiting surface instability across much of the
area of concern. Yet increasing LLJ from 850-7H of 30-40kts is
saturating the low level environment, with the leading
edge/moisture convergence leading to broken convective line
lifting north which will act as a pivoting deformation zone later
this evening into early overnight.

A surface low is analyzed near MKN with a cold front dropping
south-southwest just passing JCT to DRT. Strengthening NW surface
flow and deepening surface wave is starting to press the cold
front eastward, faster at the southern end with the surface low
acting as a pivot point. The strong moisture convergence is
supporting deep convection with cooling tops in 10um EIR and
increased lightning indicative of increased hail/rainfall
production. WBZ/Freezing level spread is minor and around 9-10K
supporting more efficient rainfall production given TPW of
1.5-1.7" loaded mainly below 7H/10K. This will support rates of
1.5"/hr given modest elevated instability, especially further
south. Further north, while instability is reduced, the duration
is increased as the pivot point is setting up near the surface low
and I-35. North of which was affected last evening lowering FFG
values below 1.5"/3hrs.

Hi-Res CAMs are much too slow with the eastward advancement of the
cold front, but also depict increased low level flow with the
retrograde of the old stationary outflow boundary from PSN to 3T5
will allow for increased moisture confluence as well as warmer
more unstable air...it is expected that the convergence of the
cold front and the warmer air will occur between I-35 and I-45
south of DFW likely closer to I-35 around 22-23z...this will lead
to a significant increase in rainfall rates up to 2-2.5"/hr with
slow eastward motions, leading to 3-4" totals likely north of GTU.
Given lowered FFG values due to recent and longer-term (2 week
positive anomalies per AHPS)...flash flooding is considered likely
in that 22-00z time frame.

South of the GTU, the speed of the cold front will be faster
though with greater moisture (up to 1.8" TPW), leading to reduced
totals relative to north, but faster rates like 3-4"/hr but
lasting 20-30 minutes while passing. Higher FFG values in further
south should also reduced the likelihood for flash flooding
conditions from 22-00z to possible.

Further east, the outflow boundary that stalled from 3T5 to PSN,
warm unstable air SE of the boundary is characterized by low to
mid-70s Temps and upper 60s/low 70s TDs with ideal perpendicular
flow to the boundary. As such convection has been active and
rather efficient with rates over 2.5"/hr occasionally given the
moisture flux convergence. Mean cell motions are generally
parallel or slightly east of the dying outflow boundary supporting
short-term training/repeating. Stronger height-falls and eroding
cold pool should allow for this boundary to retrograde west over
the next few hours and with high FFG values in the
region/relatively dry longer-term conditions, Flash flooding is
only considered possible for the next hour or so for Lavaca to
Madison county.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.AVIATION...
Some convection moving into the KCLL area and will carry a
prevailing thunder group to start the TAF period. Further south,
convective potential is a bit more iffy as capping will limit
potential through the early evening. Better jet dynamics and an
approaching front will give rain chances a boost tonight and
leaned toward a blend of guidance for timing. Convection should
reach the Houston terminals between 04-08z. Fcst soundings show
low level moisture hanging around for part of the morning and will
maintain a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings before they scatter out after
15z. 43

&&
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Any thoughts of severe threat shifting more east towards HGX?
unome
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watching The Weather Channel, saying it should come through here in the middle of the night, so maybe not as severe, but that always makes me worry when we expect bad weather at night
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NWS SPC
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Sun is beginning to break out in parts of the area. This should help aid thunderstorm development this evening.
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Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF30FE2D8.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CF30FFEF8TX.HGXSPSHGX.956b4c75383e62d09b9ba0ba8c40ac51 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:58 CDT on 04-24-2019
Effective: 12:01 CDT on 04-24-2019
Expires: 15:30 CDT on 04-24-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BURLESON...NORTHERN
GRIMES...EAST CENTRAL BRAZOS AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kyle Field, or near College Station, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, southeastern Bryan, Bedias, Kyle Field, Iola and
Wellborn.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Madison
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch being considered for the Brazos Valley and Northern areas of SE Texas in an little while...
04242019 mcd0435.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and east Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242032Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing MCS over central Texas will eventually enter an
environment favorable for surface-based storms, with all severe
modes possible. A WW is being considered for areas downstream.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing strong to severe MCS continues from near AUS
to near SAT currently. These storms likely remain slightly elevated
atop a cool surface later left behind from early morning convection.
Recent observations suggest that the eastern edge of this cool
layer was eroding due to advection and surface warming, with upper
60s to low 70s F dewpoints now located roughly 50-75 miles
downstream of the ongoing MCS. As these storms migrate eastward,
they will gradually become surface-based, with the ongoing threat
shifting toward damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes. As
such, a Tornado Watch is being considered for areas downstream.

..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Storms really started popping to our SW just over the last hour. Mid evening should be fun.
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Meso models continue to be less than impressive with this system once it arrives in our area. Sadly I think the cap wins again.
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Harris County and southward not included in the new Severe Thunderstorm Watch...cap has been just too strong today...so far...
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Looks like some damage reports coming in from Boonville.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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The College Station area and points north have sure been a battle ground these last few events.
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Folks in the College Station/Bryan area need to pay attention. Possible Tornado Warning coming for that area shortly associated with squall line heading your way.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 512 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF HEARNE, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WIXON VALLEY AROUND 545 PM CDT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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04242019 mcd0436.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...middle TX coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242223Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/severe
gusts are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates intensifying
updrafts (via glaciation) on the southern portion of the composite
front/outflow draped southwest-northeast across south TX. Visible
imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field along the boundary. As mid-
to upper-level forcing for ascent encroaches on the region as the
shortwave trough moves east this evening, additional storm
development is forecast to occur south of the McMullen/Live Oak
county storm. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary
hazards with the stronger storms this evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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