http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/
APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month
we had a power outage for about an hr & 1/2 - just when you think it's all clear, you are reminded why it's important to keep your emergency supplies stocked & remember where they are... cell phones = the new flashlights
http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/
http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/
Already 1.26” here more on the way. It also looks like that model run on Channel 2 last night was pretty accurate. The rush hour radar loop looks very similar to what was depicted.
The Navasota River is reaching flood stage.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF2B31508.FloodWarning.125CF2B4E9C8TX.HGXFLWHGX.ea75c33d41db0c18be25cfa3308ba05e from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 06:38 CDT on 04-18-2019
Effective: 16:25 CDT on 04-18-2019
Expires: 18:38 CDT on 04-18-2019
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...
Navasota River near Normangee affecting the following counties in Texas...
Brazos...Grimes...Madison
For Navasota River at Normangee, Minor flooding is forecasted.
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Navasota River near Normangee.
* from this afternoon until further notice or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0600 AM Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise
to near 16.9 feet by Saturday evening.
* At 17.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding continues with widespread inundation of
the flood plain in the vicinity of the gage with the river more than 1 mile
wide. Long Trussel Road in northeast Brazos County below State Highway 21 is
threatened.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM
Location Stage Stage Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon
Navasota River
Normangee 15.0 13.6 Thu 06 AM 16.1 16.8 16.9 16.5
&&
Instructions: Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Madison
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF2B356A8.FloodWarning.125CF2FFA440TX.FWDFLSFWD.3543b18974e6629b3b84626fdc5de2d6 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 08:06 CDT on 04-18-2019
Effective: 23:09 CDT on 04-18-2019
Expires: 08:12 CDT on 04-23-2019
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
Navasota River Near Easterly Affecting Leon and Robertson Counties
The Flood Warning continues for
The Navasota River Near Easterly.
* At 0700 AM Thursday the stage was 14.55 feet.
* Flood stage is 19 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Thursday night and crest near 22 feet by Saturday afternoon. The
river should fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
&&
Instructions: Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.
Target Area:
Leon
Robertson
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF2B31508.FloodWarning.125CF2B4E9C8TX.HGXFLWHGX.ea75c33d41db0c18be25cfa3308ba05e from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 06:38 CDT on 04-18-2019
Effective: 16:25 CDT on 04-18-2019
Expires: 18:38 CDT on 04-18-2019
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...
Navasota River near Normangee affecting the following counties in Texas...
Brazos...Grimes...Madison
For Navasota River at Normangee, Minor flooding is forecasted.
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Navasota River near Normangee.
* from this afternoon until further notice or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0600 AM Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise
to near 16.9 feet by Saturday evening.
* At 17.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding continues with widespread inundation of
the flood plain in the vicinity of the gage with the river more than 1 mile
wide. Long Trussel Road in northeast Brazos County below State Highway 21 is
threatened.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM
Location Stage Stage Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon
Navasota River
Normangee 15.0 13.6 Thu 06 AM 16.1 16.8 16.9 16.5
&&
Instructions: Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Madison
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF2B356A8.FloodWarning.125CF2FFA440TX.FWDFLSFWD.3543b18974e6629b3b84626fdc5de2d6 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 08:06 CDT on 04-18-2019
Effective: 23:09 CDT on 04-18-2019
Expires: 08:12 CDT on 04-23-2019
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
Navasota River Near Easterly Affecting Leon and Robertson Counties
The Flood Warning continues for
The Navasota River Near Easterly.
* At 0700 AM Thursday the stage was 14.55 feet.
* Flood stage is 19 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Thursday night and crest near 22 feet by Saturday afternoon. The
river should fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
&&
Instructions: Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.
Target Area:
Leon
Robertson
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The rain has ended in NW Harris County. I just emptied 2.23 inches out the rain gauge. This ended up be a very beneficial rainfall event, Watch out for gusty NW winds into tomorrow. Good Friday and Easter Day look great! The next weather maker looks to be shaping up early to mid next week. There is a possibility we may see some locations across our Region receive some much more significant rainfall over several days. We will keep an eye on those trends throughout the coming days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
955
FXUS64 KHGX 181119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019
.AVIATION...
Shra and embedded elevated tsra will continue thru mid morning,
then taper off from west to east. Ceilings should lift areawide
into VFR territory shortly, though visibilities could be
restricted at times in the heavier downpours. Apologies in advance
for the fcst winds between now and late morning...they`ll be all
over the place in and around the precip and have low confidence.
Prevailing direction should eventually transition the the wnw then
eventually nw thru the day as the cold front itself makes its way
in. Some of the high res models show the potential for some sct
shra right along the front this aftn. That`s not reflected in the
TAFS attm, however may need to be added later. NW winds should
become quite gusty by mid-late afternoon, taper off by late
evening, then increase once again as we head into the mid morning
hours Fri. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/
An active morning across the northern third of the forecast area
where a ragged line of thunderstorms is currently advancing east
from roughly a Columbus to Conroe to Crockett line. The strongest
storms are advancing through Walker and Houston Counties at the
top of the 3 AM hour. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #81 has been pared
back to just include the northeastern CWA. The more southern
extension of the line is running into quite the capped downstream
environment and it is having a difficult time maintaining any
semblance of organization. Thunderstorms will be rolling through
the metro area within the next hour or two. Expect gusty winds to
30 mph and brief heavy rainfall that may cause street ponding or
minor flooding of low lying areas. The latest and greatest rapid
refresh high resolution modeling has this very ragged line moving
across the eastern CWA through 18Z. It also has the strong to
severe cells moving across CRP`s CWA turning a bit north (left)
and merging with the southern tail of our line. This scenario
might produce a bow echo in the Matagorda Bay area that would push
across our western waters in the 11Z through 14Z range.
West to northwest winds will kick in later this morning and
strengthen this afternoon into the evening hours. Late afternoon
northwest to western county wind magnitudes may briefly achieve
Wind Advisory criteria, or sustained 25 mph with higher gusts,
before quickly coming down at sunset. As the core upper low moves
across and into the Piney Woods late this afternoon, there may be
some early afternoon wrap around cloud cover across the northern
tier counties with a low chance for a lingering shower or possible
thunderstorm. The day will warm into the mid 70s up north (more
clouds, rain) and the lower 80s down south (partial clearing, less
rain). Dry air advection will produce overnight clearing and
assist in lowering temperatures into the near sunrise lower to
middle 50s.
Friday will be a windy day with a more areawide Wind Advisory
likely required as daytime sustained northwest winds reach and/or
exceed sustained 20 to 25 mph. Despite mostly sunny skies, strong
northwesterly winds will keep the lower layer mixed enough to
thwart warming and keep afternoon temperature readings in the
lower to middle 70s.
A very nice Easter weekend with onshore flow returning Saturday
and strengthening during a mostly sunny and dry Easter Sunday.
Lower 60 F sunrise temperatures Easter Sunday will be around 10
degrees warmer than Saturday`s min Ts...both days will warm into
the average lower 80s.
Early next week`s precipitation chances will be on the rise each
subsequent day from Monday`s slight chances to Wednesday`s likely
probs. The impetus to return precipitation of (early week showers
transitioning to more stormy mid week conditions) will be the
slow deepening of a very slow eastern-moving upper trough from
the Great Basin Monday into western Texas Wednesday. An associated
surface reflection northeastern Mexico low may evolve an emanating
lower level trough/boundary across South Central and Central
Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. This lower level focus, in tandem
with a series of shortwave disturbances rounding the bend of the
western Texas 5H trough axis, will keep high to likely chance
POPs in the extended. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 50 73 48 81 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 54 74 50 80 / 60 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 54 74 58 75 / 70 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 181119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019
.AVIATION...
Shra and embedded elevated tsra will continue thru mid morning,
then taper off from west to east. Ceilings should lift areawide
into VFR territory shortly, though visibilities could be
restricted at times in the heavier downpours. Apologies in advance
for the fcst winds between now and late morning...they`ll be all
over the place in and around the precip and have low confidence.
Prevailing direction should eventually transition the the wnw then
eventually nw thru the day as the cold front itself makes its way
in. Some of the high res models show the potential for some sct
shra right along the front this aftn. That`s not reflected in the
TAFS attm, however may need to be added later. NW winds should
become quite gusty by mid-late afternoon, taper off by late
evening, then increase once again as we head into the mid morning
hours Fri. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/
An active morning across the northern third of the forecast area
where a ragged line of thunderstorms is currently advancing east
from roughly a Columbus to Conroe to Crockett line. The strongest
storms are advancing through Walker and Houston Counties at the
top of the 3 AM hour. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #81 has been pared
back to just include the northeastern CWA. The more southern
extension of the line is running into quite the capped downstream
environment and it is having a difficult time maintaining any
semblance of organization. Thunderstorms will be rolling through
the metro area within the next hour or two. Expect gusty winds to
30 mph and brief heavy rainfall that may cause street ponding or
minor flooding of low lying areas. The latest and greatest rapid
refresh high resolution modeling has this very ragged line moving
across the eastern CWA through 18Z. It also has the strong to
severe cells moving across CRP`s CWA turning a bit north (left)
and merging with the southern tail of our line. This scenario
might produce a bow echo in the Matagorda Bay area that would push
across our western waters in the 11Z through 14Z range.
West to northwest winds will kick in later this morning and
strengthen this afternoon into the evening hours. Late afternoon
northwest to western county wind magnitudes may briefly achieve
Wind Advisory criteria, or sustained 25 mph with higher gusts,
before quickly coming down at sunset. As the core upper low moves
across and into the Piney Woods late this afternoon, there may be
some early afternoon wrap around cloud cover across the northern
tier counties with a low chance for a lingering shower or possible
thunderstorm. The day will warm into the mid 70s up north (more
clouds, rain) and the lower 80s down south (partial clearing, less
rain). Dry air advection will produce overnight clearing and
assist in lowering temperatures into the near sunrise lower to
middle 50s.
Friday will be a windy day with a more areawide Wind Advisory
likely required as daytime sustained northwest winds reach and/or
exceed sustained 20 to 25 mph. Despite mostly sunny skies, strong
northwesterly winds will keep the lower layer mixed enough to
thwart warming and keep afternoon temperature readings in the
lower to middle 70s.
A very nice Easter weekend with onshore flow returning Saturday
and strengthening during a mostly sunny and dry Easter Sunday.
Lower 60 F sunrise temperatures Easter Sunday will be around 10
degrees warmer than Saturday`s min Ts...both days will warm into
the average lower 80s.
Early next week`s precipitation chances will be on the rise each
subsequent day from Monday`s slight chances to Wednesday`s likely
probs. The impetus to return precipitation of (early week showers
transitioning to more stormy mid week conditions) will be the
slow deepening of a very slow eastern-moving upper trough from
the Great Basin Monday into western Texas Wednesday. An associated
surface reflection northeastern Mexico low may evolve an emanating
lower level trough/boundary across South Central and Central
Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. This lower level focus, in tandem
with a series of shortwave disturbances rounding the bend of the
western Texas 5H trough axis, will keep high to likely chance
POPs in the extended. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 50 73 48 81 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 54 74 50 80 / 60 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 54 74 58 75 / 70 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Yep, just like the model on Channel 2 depicted. I may need to watch the TV weather again.
It is absolutely beautiful outside today!
Yes, it is!! I went for a run with my wife and she said “this breeze feels great! It’s like outdoor air conditioning when you run! In July we’re gonna miss this weather.”
Looking forward to a beautiful weekend ahead. Perfect weather for Easter!
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A beautiful breezy Friday especially along the coast.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
...Wind Advisory is in Effect...
.Expect gusty northwest winds from mid morning through early
evening.
TXZ214-313-335>338-436>438-191715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0009.190419T1500Z-190420T0000Z/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Baytown, Clute, Dickinson,
Freeport, Galveston, La Marque, Lake Jackson, Mont Belvieu,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Stowell, Surfside Beach,
Texas City, and Winnie
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM
CDT this evening.
* EVENT...northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.
* TIMING...mid morning through early evening.
* IMPACT...High winds will blow about light, unsecured objects.
Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
...Wind Advisory is in Effect...
.Expect gusty northwest winds from mid morning through early
evening.
TXZ214-313-335>338-436>438-191715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0009.190419T1500Z-190420T0000Z/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Baytown, Clute, Dickinson,
Freeport, Galveston, La Marque, Lake Jackson, Mont Belvieu,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Stowell, Surfside Beach,
Texas City, and Winnie
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM
CDT this evening.
* EVENT...northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.
* TIMING...mid morning through early evening.
* IMPACT...High winds will blow about light, unsecured objects.
Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads.
1.8 inches of rain IMBY. I thought it might be a little more, but we've had plenty of wet weather.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:58 am The rain has ended in NW Harris County. I just emptied 2.23 inches out the rain gauge. This ended up be a very beneficial rainfall event, Watch out for gusty NW winds into tomorrow. Good Friday and Easter Day look great! The next weather maker looks to be shaping up early to mid next week. There is a possibility we may see some locations across our Region receive some much more significant rainfall over several days. We will keep an eye on those trends throughout the coming days.
An absolutely Chamber of Commerce weather day in College Station with clear skies, sun, and moderate temps with a cool breeze. Enjoy it while it lasts. We may not see this again until October!
Well I see the models are starting to back off on the rain now for next week. Doesn’t surprise me.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The new GFS (FV3-GFS) received some major upgrades to fix the known issues...
Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue · 8h8 hours ago
NOAA's FV3-GFS weather model received some upgrades on Friday, hopefully enough improvement to move into operations in early summer.
Time to seriously compare to operational GFS and monitor good/bad aspects.
Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue · 8h8 hours ago
NOAA's FV3-GFS weather model received some upgrades on Friday, hopefully enough improvement to move into operations in early summer.
Time to seriously compare to operational GFS and monitor good/bad aspects.
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined at 15% chance of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday (Day 5). So far the 12Z models are suggesting a dynamic upper level trough traveling further South across Texas. Everyone enjoy the beautiful Easter Weekend Weather and we'll watch for the next strong storm system arriving this coming Wednesday!
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
On the latest runs of the models, they keep the heaviest rains out over central Texas and we just get about 1-2” here.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
No weather concerns today on this Glorious Resurrection Day! On onshore flow will increase this afternoon as High Pressure slides further to the East. Winds will pickup during that afternoon hours making for a perfect day outdoors!
Our next weather maker is organizing off the California Coast and will begin its journey East tonight into tomorrow. A cold upper trough across the Great Basin will begin to dig into Northern Mexico tomorrow as a disturbance in the mid/upper levels strengthens and pressure falls begin. By Tuesday, a clod front will slowly begin to sag South across Texas and a cold core upper low deepens over Mexico. Moisture off the Gulf looks to increase steadily to near 2 inches. That is rather high for this time of year. There are some differences regarding the evolution of that upper low as it exits Mexico and cross Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some of the models develop a closed circulation at 500mb while other keep the upper trough open. I believe the closed cold core upper low solution is probably the more likely outcome based on what we have seen with these Southern Jetstream storms the past couple of weeks. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southern half of Texas. I believe damaging winds and hail are the primary threat at this time, but if an organized thunderstorm complex develops, an isolated tornado or two is not out of the question. The Storm Prediction Center has again outlined a 15% risk area for Day 4 or Wednesday.
There is a signal for heavy rainfall with this weather event as well. The limiting factor may be the quicker forward speed of this storm system when compared to what we were seeing late last work week. While this event likely will not produce a major flooding issue. Heavy rainfall rates in short order are certainly possible and we will monitor trends the next day or two and fine tune the sensible weather forecast as we near mid week.
Tuesday Weather Map
Wednesday Weather Map
5 Day Rainfall Forecast
Our next weather maker is organizing off the California Coast and will begin its journey East tonight into tomorrow. A cold upper trough across the Great Basin will begin to dig into Northern Mexico tomorrow as a disturbance in the mid/upper levels strengthens and pressure falls begin. By Tuesday, a clod front will slowly begin to sag South across Texas and a cold core upper low deepens over Mexico. Moisture off the Gulf looks to increase steadily to near 2 inches. That is rather high for this time of year. There are some differences regarding the evolution of that upper low as it exits Mexico and cross Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some of the models develop a closed circulation at 500mb while other keep the upper trough open. I believe the closed cold core upper low solution is probably the more likely outcome based on what we have seen with these Southern Jetstream storms the past couple of weeks. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southern half of Texas. I believe damaging winds and hail are the primary threat at this time, but if an organized thunderstorm complex develops, an isolated tornado or two is not out of the question. The Storm Prediction Center has again outlined a 15% risk area for Day 4 or Wednesday.
Tuesday Weather Map
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Models are really backing off on rain now. Might not even get an inch out of this anymore 