APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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some pretty strong winds even in areas not tornado warned

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srainhoutx
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Confirmed Large and Extremely Dangerous Tornado on the ground near Calvert and Hearne moving NE at 30 MPH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Rotation increasing with this Warned cell. Tornado Warning may be needed shortly...
04132019 1145AM HGX D4C6fydWwAE4-WT.jpg
NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1m1 minute ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Kennard TX, Ratcliff TX, Weches TX until 11:45 AM CDT

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Belmer
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Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131611Z - 131645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...An upscale growing/organizing convective system
continues to evolve across the Interstate-35 corridor of central
Texas, with additional discrete supercell development occurring
downstream, near the surface front. The front may remain a focus
for possible tornado development into early afternoon, with
potential for new storm development gradually increasing within the
warm sector, near/north of Houston.


..Kerr/Grams.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...
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Blake
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch hoisted for portions of SE Texas. The Tornado Watch does not include Harris County at this time. This Tornado Watch is in effect until 7:00 PM CDT
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04132019 TOR Watch HGX D4C9xzpWAAAcWZv.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1123 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...Mesoscale Discussion...
Latest surface analysis has a warm front stretching from NE of
Austin to just north of College Station to Nacogdoches in E TX.
Surface low tracking near Austin should also move along the warm
front as it pushes north slowly. Tornadic supercell near Hearne
north of College Station seems to be riding along this boundary.
Also watching storm in Houston County near Crockett as it nears
better low level shear near the boundary. Storm already has
rotation and severe - monitoring closely.

Environment increasing just south of warm front for higher severe
potential. Latest model guidance from WRF/HRRR continues to
highlight areas north of Brenham to Conroe to Cleveland for severe
weather this afternoon. Instability increasing south of boundary
with clouds clearing allowing for heating. ML CAPE up to around
2000 to 3000 J/kg in warm sector. 0-1km shear up to around
20-30kts near the boundary supporting rotating updrafts. Look for
tornado watch (issued during the writing of this AFD) to be issued
for a portion of the area. Deep layer shear will only increase as
300 mb jet moves over the area. Surface low matches well with left
exit region of the jet with large scale ascent eroding any
capping. Morning soundings showed very little cap and AMDAR
soundings over Houston showed no cap with heating to around 80F at
the surface. Look for severe threats to remain north of Houston at
this time but Houston will be on the edge. We will need to closely
monitor the southern edge of convection this afternoon as a front
moves into the area between 1-5PM.

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srainhoutx
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Tornado Warning for Houston County near Kennard
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Tornado Warning for Madison, Grimes, Walker & Houston Counties. Tornadic cell 8 miles SE of Madisonville.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Getting reports of first responders in Franklin having difficult time getting to the area. Early reports of building collapses, injuries, down power lines, debris and trees down
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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mckinne63
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Have had some rain showers off and on here in Stafford. Currently seeing some big thick raindrops. Coming down pretty good. Not very windy and skies are pretty bright..
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DoctorMu
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Impressive wall cloud sliding north of us. Saw some general rotation.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF267A80C.TornadoWarning.125CF267AB2CTX.HGXSVSHGX.5f7586f5efc49d18afbf6e6d660cd07c from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:07 CDT on 04-13-2019
Effective: 12:07 CDT on 04-13-2019
Expires: 12:15 CDT on 04-13-2019
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...EASTERN MADISON AND WEST CENTRAL WALKER
COUNTIES...

At 1207 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles south of Austonio, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Houston, eastern Madison and west central Walker
Counties.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Houston
Madison
Walker
unome
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:09 pm Getting reports of first responders in Franklin having difficult time getting to the area. Early reports of building collapses, injuries, down power lines, debris and trees down
https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas

Robertson County
Tracked: 3476
Out: 2792
:cry:
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:26 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:09 pm Getting reports of first responders in Franklin having difficult time getting to the area. Early reports of building collapses, injuries, down power lines, debris and trees down
https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas

Robertson County
Tracked: 3476
Out: 2792
:cry:

That's their 2nd tornado/funnel in a week.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

DoctorMu wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:28 pm
unome wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:26 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:09 pm Getting reports of first responders in Franklin having difficult time getting to the area. Early reports of building collapses, injuries, down power lines, debris and trees down
https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas

Robertson County
Tracked: 3476
Out: 2792
:cry:

That's their 2nd tornado/funnel in a week.
it doesn't sound good :cry: https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/2720
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srainhoutx
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Mid day Saturday Update from Jeff:

Tornado Watch issued for areas along and N of HWY 105.

Supercells with large violent tornadoes in progress from N of Collage Station to near I-45 N of Centerville. The City of Franklin TX has taken a direct hit from a large tornado with extensive damage and injuries being reported.

Warm front is drapped along a line from north of College Station toward Lake Livingston and supercells along this boundary are producing tornadoes. Air mass and shear parameters in the Tornado Watch area are favorable for long tracked and highly destructive tornadoes.

South of the tornado watch area across the reminder of SE TX, a line of strong thunderstorms will approach from the west this afternoon. It remains to be seen if this line will hold together or weaken as it moves into SE TX. Thus far showers S of I-10 have struggled to develop with some capping still in place.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF267AFDC.SevereThunderstormWarning.125CF267D23CTX.HGXSVRHGX.c2fafa2e0bc4dbab7c5e4ad99a2fa643 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:27 CDT on 04-13-2019
Effective: 12:27 CDT on 04-13-2019
Expires: 13:15 CDT on 04-13-2019
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
West central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dime Box, or
8 miles east of Lexington, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Western Bryan, Caldwell, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway,
Deanville and Chriesman.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern Texas. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
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DoctorMu
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40 mph gusts IMBY now.

Straight line winds at the moment.
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Rip76
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Stuck in the middle here.
My son has swimming lessons at 2:30 in Clear Lake.

I guess we wait.
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DoctorMu
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NE area folks take cover. The supercell is spinning off more tornadoes.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF267B040.TornadoWarning.125CF267D23CTX.FWDTORFWD.0aab25518b3157e0df9088560af69fcb from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:28 CDT on 04-13-2019
Effective: 12:28 CDT on 04-13-2019
Expires: 13:15 CDT on 04-13-2019
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Freestone County in central Texas...
Northeastern Leon County in central Texas...
Southwestern Anderson County in central Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1228 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located near Buffalo,
or 19 miles southeast of Fairfield, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Buffalo, Elkhart and Oakwood.
This includes Interstate 45 between mile markers 173 and 189.
TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.25IN
Instructions: To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
Target Area:
Anderson
Freestone
Leon
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nlosrgr8
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No rain in Sugar Land, is it possible we could miss the severe weather?
Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine.
Anthony J. D'Angelo
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