March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

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jasons2k
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When we drove in from Austin yesterday, I could see the smoke down in Deer Park from a few high points on the Grand Parkway, before we knew what it was. I told my wife “I think there’s a big fire, and it looks like it’s all the way down by the chemical plants.” And sure enough when we got home, I checked the news and saw it.

That smoke plume went a long ways, stretched west to the other side of the metro area. It may be aloft but I wouldn’t want to be downwind of that thing for sure.
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srainhoutx
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Deer Park Industrial Fire weather update from Jeff:

A large industrial fire that has involved multiple storage tanks continues in Deer Park at the ITC facility.

Winds are currently light from the east over SE Harris County with transport winds (1000-2000ft) above the ground from the E at 15-18mph. Transport winds are currently blowing the smoke plume toward the WSW over portions of SE/S Harris County into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. A low level inversion this morning around 300ft at Hobby Airport should start to mix out in the next 1-2 hours as the surface begins to heat allowing the mixing height to rise to near 5,500ft by late morning and early afternoon. Surface winds will increase from the ENE/E this morning into the 5-10mph range while transport winds remain E at 15-20mph.

Recent plume modeling shows the smoke plume shifting toward the west late this morning and early this afternoon more toward central Harris County into Fort Bend and Waller Counties, but again this will be mainly elevated above the surface.

At this time, TCEQ fixed air monitoring stations are not indicating any air quality concerns.
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527
FXUS64 KHGX 180906
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
406 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very few changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Pleasant,
mostly dry springtime wx should persist the workweek.

Satellite imagery continues to show some mid/high level Pacific
cloudiness streaming overhead in the sw flow aloft. Expect this
to continue, but precip should be confined well out into the Gulf
beyond our forecast area.

Shortwave will be dropping sse into the northern Plains and
eventually into the Tennessee Valley by early Thurs. Its
associated surface front will become increasingly diffuse as it
edges toward, or into, se TX Wed night or Thurs. Very little
impact if any is expected. As high pressure moves off to the east,
look for an onshore flow to resume late in the week bringing a
gradual increase in Gulf moisture. Large scale lift will increase
with approaching western trof as we head into the weekend. Showers
and tstms should increase in areal coverage Sat-Sun morning.
Guidance isn`t showing much in the way of significant llvl
forcing with this system, but we`re still a ways off until
confidence in its evolution increases. Only change to the extended
was to bump POPs up about 10% across northern parts of the CWA.
47

&&

.Deer Park Fire...
Aircraft reports out of Hobby Airport indicate inversion situated
around 400-500ft...a couple hundred feet higher than the lowest
guidance would indicate. Though they have probably since dropped a
bit and will continue to do so, I went ahead and raised the mixing
heights into mid morning from our last spot forecast (will be
adding about 100ft). Surface winds are light...generally out of
the north 0-5 mph, though transport wind (above the surface) are
out of the east 10-15mph. Mixing heights will steadily increase
after about 8am, and surface winds will gradually veer from the
north, to northeast then east at 7-11 mph by late morning. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light NE/E winds will prevail today for the bays and the
nearshore waters...but winds over the offshore waters are expected
to strengthen this afternoon (likely in relation to activity deve-
loping from a strong upper level disturbance embedded in the south
west flow aloft). SCEC flags may be needed late this afternoon and
tonight. With the passage of this system, we should return to this
mostly light NE/E across the marine forecast area through the rest
of the week. As the next low pressure system develops and moves in
to the lee of the Rockies on Fri, we could start to see the return
of as onshore flow at that time. These SE winds to strengthen over
the weekend as the storm system moves into the Southern Plains. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Still not expecting any issues with the next TAF package with only
BKN/OVC mid/high clouds remaining in place. The active upper level
jet has shifted a bit more to the south and the bulk of the storms
developing via the embedded disturbances will likely stay offshore.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 46 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 49 71 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 66 57 67 / 0 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:02 am Deer Park Industrial Fire weather update from Jeff:

A large industrial fire that has involved multiple storage tanks continues in Deer Park at the ITC facility.

Winds are currently light from the east over SE Harris County with transport winds (1000-2000ft) above the ground from the E at 15-18mph. Transport winds are currently blowing the smoke plume toward the WSW over portions of SE/S Harris County into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. A low level inversion this morning around 300ft at Hobby Airport should start to mix out in the next 1-2 hours as the surface begins to heat allowing the mixing height to rise to near 5,500ft by late morning and early afternoon. Surface winds will increase from the ENE/E this morning into the 5-10mph range while transport winds remain E at 15-20mph.

Recent plume modeling shows the smoke plume shifting toward the west late this morning and early this afternoon more toward central Harris County into Fort Bend and Waller Counties, but again this will be mainly elevated above the surface.

At this time, TCEQ fixed air monitoring stations are not indicating any air quality concerns.
Luckily, we have a break in the rain, or this would be a nasty surprise downwind. We could see the black clouds in the air yesterday evening, and I can look northwestward and see the black clouds from our place in northern Brazoria county. This may be burning for another day, or two, if all goes well.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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Texaspirate11
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This is 11 miles from me.
I bought a gallon of Rocky Road ice cream.
I'm not worried...much
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srainhoutx
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Looking at GOES 16 Veggie (NIR) you can see the smoke plume (black line) extending West from just to the NE of Galveston Bay. The plume appears to extend all the way to Fayette County.
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03182019 2032Z NIR COD-GOES-East-local-Houston.03.20190318.203218-over=map-bars=.gif
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I see it out my window
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What are these clouds around the past few days? Cirrus clouds right? They need to go away! I’m ready to see some sun! Hopefully tomorrow will be better. I’ll be ready to see an inch or two of rain by the weekend if we can get a few days of some sunshine this week.
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Mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s through Friday as SE TX finally sees the sun for multiple days. The massive smoke plume will continue drifting across the Houston area for a 3rd day from the Deer Park ITC fire.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning ITC/weather briefing from Jeff:

Fire continues to burn with a smoke plume being generated and moving W to WSW over portions of Harris, Fort Bend, and Waller Counties and then west toward central TX.

Weather conditions continue to remain generally fairly stable with no significant frontal boundaries or storm systems expected over the next 24 hours allowing a general easterly surface and transport wind. Winds this morning have become very light ENE or calm over much of the region with mixing heights having lowered to between 500-1000ft this morning. Winds between now and 1000am may become light NE for a period. The low level temperature inversion that has become established and may lower another few 100 feet this morning before surface heating results in the stable surface layer deepening. Mixing heights are forecast to increase to around 6000ft today which will keep the smoke plume generally elevated above the surface.

As we saw yesterday afternoon, winds this afternoon at the surface will veer around to the east and ESE/SE around 8-15mph while transport winds 1000-3000ft above the ground remain out of the east at 15-20mph.

It should be noted that wind direction and speed at the fire site overnight have shown variations that are different from the background state and this is likely a function of the intense heat cores helping to create local weather effects on wind direction and speed. Rapid fluctuations in wind speed and direction are possible at the fire site.

TCEQ air quality measurements this morning continue to show no areas that are above normal standards for a morning with similar weather conditions in an urban area. Ozone is increasing currently, but this is more a function of an increase in morning traffic with calm winds. PM-2.5 levels remain in the “good” range with the current highest reading of 20.5 around Galena Park.
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439
FXUS64 KHGX 190937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of change with the forecast for the short-term as this
dry/mild weather is expected to persist through rest of the week.
Surface high pressure to the east and a flat zonal flow aloft to
help keep things quiet here. With very limited moisture over the
area (given the dry NE/E low-level flow of late) and the push of
the upper flow/clouds further south, another fairly seasonal day
will be on tap for SE TX the next few days. A weak frontal bound-
ary approaching from the NW late Weds is not expected to produce
any significant precipitation for the CWFA with its passage, but
we should see a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air filter into the
region by Thurs.

Onshore winds are finally progged to return to SE TX by Fri with
the associated surface high moving east of the area and the next
storm system moving off the Rockies, into the Great Plains. With
this system moving quickly off to the NE, the focus will then be
with the next one moving in/developing quickly in its wake. This
second system (and its associated upper trof) is progged to trek
slightly more to the south as it moves east with time. Model PWs
for this time frame are not terribly impressive...but forcing dy-
namics are. As such, will keep with elevated POPs for weekend...
with the higher numbers for the northern counties and lower ones
along the coast. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterly flow in place with mid 60 temperatures over the
warmer waters. Winds have been a little stronger than most models
predicted as well as higher seas. Will continue the SCA 20-60nm
waters through 02z but this end time is challenging...although winds
should start to relax a bit this afternoon the fetch will like
continue to feed 5-7 foot seas into the area. Otherwise as the weak
boundary sags southward into SETX Wednesday and Wednesday night will
likely see surface winds swing around to the west then become more
variable with weak high drifting over the waters followed by the
weak dry cold front veering winds to the north and strengthening
Thursday. A brief period of SCEC winds possible but not likely with
the passage. Eventually the high over SETX moves eastward and light
southeasterly flow develops Friday strengthening Saturday.
45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The northeast to easterly winds 5-10 mph will continue today with a
mix of cloud cover with predominately more sun than clouds. RH will
continue on the dry side though probably not quite as low as
yesterdays 23-35 percent range. Transport winds will be primarily
easterly throughout the day with generous mixing heights developing
this afternoon. Greater recovery on tap Wednesday morning and
Thursday morning. Lighter and more variable winds on Wednesday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 47 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 56 68 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&
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jasons2k
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I don’t care what the air monitors say, I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near downwind of that cancer plume.
unome
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I had to go outside when it started getting darker, just to see if it was rain clouds (wasn't expecting rain) alas, it's just the smoke plume that officials "don't anticipate to have any adverse health effects"...

sigh... https://www.readyharris.org/Deer-Park-Fire
air quality is not at a level of concern and is reflective of typical conditions

I can smell it in the air here in Cypress

https://twitter.com/hashtag/deerparkfir ... t&src=hash
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This is the website I used when I was working in China monitoring the air quality.

http://aqicn.org/city/texas/houston/houston-east/
Alicia/Jerry/Ike/Typhoon Danas/Typhoon Cham-hom/Harvey/Imelda
unome
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Current Ozone & PM-2.5 (Particulate Matter?) maps

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1

PLEASE NOTE: This data has not been verified by the TCEQ and may change. This is the most current data, but it is not official until it has been certified by our technical staff. Data is collected from TCEQ ambient monitoring sites and may include data collected by other outside agencies. This data is updated hourly. All times shown are in local standard time unless otherwise indicated.
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Texaspirate11
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Here are all the chemicals in the air

Gasoline
Naphtha
Xylene
Pygas
Toluene

So what part of this is good?
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jasons2k
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I’m pretty sure the plume has shifted around and it looks like it’s above me now. Eerie.
unome
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recent shot from Terra MODIS, short link: https://go.nasa.gov/2WaecIg

you can download high-res images at the NASA WorldView site link above

I hope they are utilizing NASA data

https://www-misr.jpl.nasa.gov/getData/accessData/
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data
unome
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:44 pm Here are all the chemicals in the air

Gasoline
Naphtha
Xylene
Pygas
Toluene

So what part of this is good?
:( :cry: :evil:

from https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/1108082474226274305
KHOU 11 News Houston
‏Verified account @KHOU
38m38 minutes ago

#DeerParkFire storage tank breakdown: the FIVE tanks in RED are still on fire, the THREE tanks in BLUE have burned out, the TWO tanks in YELLOW are the ones that were empty and have collapsed. Five tanks remain. https://on.khou.com/2HLO02R
wtf.jpg
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