March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

So just got a text from a friend saying its hailing at 249/spring cypress. I hadn't even checked the weather recently since it was cool and quiet.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

JDsGN wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:50 pm So just got a text from a friend saying its hailing at 249/spring cypress. I hadn't even checked the weather recently since it was cool and quiet.
just logged on to report some brief & tiny hail here in Cypress, temp sure has dropped !
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

Had a brief heavy downpour with some pea-size hail here in Pasadena. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder, too.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

We’re over in SW Austin, went for a walk outside, 58 degrees but it was sleeting due to evaporative cooling.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

It looks like a warming trend will begin by the middle part of this upcoming week. Temps should rebound to near normal or slightly above normal, but with the rising temperatures comes some good rain chances. Next Saturday looks particularly interesting to me right now.
User avatar
Kludge
Posts: 254
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:53 pm
Location: Bedias, Texas
Contact:

Light Thundersleet in northern Grimes County (cue Cantore) :D
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

unome wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:16 pm NWS Omaha evacuated due to flooding, radar temporarily off - hope everyone stays safe
NWS Hastings is backing up NWS Omaha. We will do the best we can to continue the flow of information. Please bear with us.
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-03-1 ... st-impacts
https://www.weather.gov/oax/
https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha
https://www.facebook.com/pg/NWSOmaha/posts
https://twitter.com/iembot_oax
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/?current ... fresh=true
from National Weather Service Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Twitter feed https://twitter.com/NWSMBRFC
Preliminary record-breaking stages in the Missouri Basin

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1vMKbMXQAM8PiV.jpg
1.jpg
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Nebraska and Iowa have some serious flooding right now.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

all along the Mississippi Valley River Forecast Centers: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?rfc=mvrfc

while parts of TX in Moderate Drought, albeit slightly improved over precious week https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Fortunately an inversion remained high enough and light Northerly winds helped in mixing to keep smoke from the tank fires in Deer Park aloft. Winds should swing around to the NE and E as the day progresses and increase a bit.

We have a good stretch of weather ahead with just mid/high level clouds, but dry and comfortable. We may see increasing rain chances this weekend, but most of the heavier rain looks to be to our West and North as of this morning.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

When we drove in from Austin yesterday, I could see the smoke down in Deer Park from a few high points on the Grand Parkway, before we knew what it was. I told my wife “I think there’s a big fire, and it looks like it’s all the way down by the chemical plants.” And sure enough when we got home, I checked the news and saw it.

That smoke plume went a long ways, stretched west to the other side of the metro area. It may be aloft but I wouldn’t want to be downwind of that thing for sure.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Deer Park Industrial Fire weather update from Jeff:

A large industrial fire that has involved multiple storage tanks continues in Deer Park at the ITC facility.

Winds are currently light from the east over SE Harris County with transport winds (1000-2000ft) above the ground from the E at 15-18mph. Transport winds are currently blowing the smoke plume toward the WSW over portions of SE/S Harris County into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. A low level inversion this morning around 300ft at Hobby Airport should start to mix out in the next 1-2 hours as the surface begins to heat allowing the mixing height to rise to near 5,500ft by late morning and early afternoon. Surface winds will increase from the ENE/E this morning into the 5-10mph range while transport winds remain E at 15-20mph.

Recent plume modeling shows the smoke plume shifting toward the west late this morning and early this afternoon more toward central Harris County into Fort Bend and Waller Counties, but again this will be mainly elevated above the surface.

At this time, TCEQ fixed air monitoring stations are not indicating any air quality concerns.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

527
FXUS64 KHGX 180906
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
406 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very few changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Pleasant,
mostly dry springtime wx should persist the workweek.

Satellite imagery continues to show some mid/high level Pacific
cloudiness streaming overhead in the sw flow aloft. Expect this
to continue, but precip should be confined well out into the Gulf
beyond our forecast area.

Shortwave will be dropping sse into the northern Plains and
eventually into the Tennessee Valley by early Thurs. Its
associated surface front will become increasingly diffuse as it
edges toward, or into, se TX Wed night or Thurs. Very little
impact if any is expected. As high pressure moves off to the east,
look for an onshore flow to resume late in the week bringing a
gradual increase in Gulf moisture. Large scale lift will increase
with approaching western trof as we head into the weekend. Showers
and tstms should increase in areal coverage Sat-Sun morning.
Guidance isn`t showing much in the way of significant llvl
forcing with this system, but we`re still a ways off until
confidence in its evolution increases. Only change to the extended
was to bump POPs up about 10% across northern parts of the CWA.
47

&&

.Deer Park Fire...
Aircraft reports out of Hobby Airport indicate inversion situated
around 400-500ft...a couple hundred feet higher than the lowest
guidance would indicate. Though they have probably since dropped a
bit and will continue to do so, I went ahead and raised the mixing
heights into mid morning from our last spot forecast (will be
adding about 100ft). Surface winds are light...generally out of
the north 0-5 mph, though transport wind (above the surface) are
out of the east 10-15mph. Mixing heights will steadily increase
after about 8am, and surface winds will gradually veer from the
north, to northeast then east at 7-11 mph by late morning. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light NE/E winds will prevail today for the bays and the
nearshore waters...but winds over the offshore waters are expected
to strengthen this afternoon (likely in relation to activity deve-
loping from a strong upper level disturbance embedded in the south
west flow aloft). SCEC flags may be needed late this afternoon and
tonight. With the passage of this system, we should return to this
mostly light NE/E across the marine forecast area through the rest
of the week. As the next low pressure system develops and moves in
to the lee of the Rockies on Fri, we could start to see the return
of as onshore flow at that time. These SE winds to strengthen over
the weekend as the storm system moves into the Southern Plains. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Still not expecting any issues with the next TAF package with only
BKN/OVC mid/high clouds remaining in place. The active upper level
jet has shifted a bit more to the south and the bulk of the storms
developing via the embedded disturbances will likely stay offshore.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 46 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 49 71 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 66 57 67 / 0 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CrashTestDummy
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:02 am Deer Park Industrial Fire weather update from Jeff:

A large industrial fire that has involved multiple storage tanks continues in Deer Park at the ITC facility.

Winds are currently light from the east over SE Harris County with transport winds (1000-2000ft) above the ground from the E at 15-18mph. Transport winds are currently blowing the smoke plume toward the WSW over portions of SE/S Harris County into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. A low level inversion this morning around 300ft at Hobby Airport should start to mix out in the next 1-2 hours as the surface begins to heat allowing the mixing height to rise to near 5,500ft by late morning and early afternoon. Surface winds will increase from the ENE/E this morning into the 5-10mph range while transport winds remain E at 15-20mph.

Recent plume modeling shows the smoke plume shifting toward the west late this morning and early this afternoon more toward central Harris County into Fort Bend and Waller Counties, but again this will be mainly elevated above the surface.

At this time, TCEQ fixed air monitoring stations are not indicating any air quality concerns.
Luckily, we have a break in the rain, or this would be a nasty surprise downwind. We could see the black clouds in the air yesterday evening, and I can look northwestward and see the black clouds from our place in northern Brazoria county. This may be burning for another day, or two, if all goes well.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

This is 11 miles from me.
I bought a gallon of Rocky Road ice cream.
I'm not worried...much
Attachments
0_IMG_20190318_145422_155.jpg
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
javakah
Posts: 128
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:20 pm
Location: Fulshear
Contact:

fire.jpg
GOES-16 Band 7 (Shortwave IR)
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Looking at GOES 16 Veggie (NIR) you can see the smoke plume (black line) extending West from just to the NE of Galveston Bay. The plume appears to extend all the way to Fayette County.
Attachments
03182019 2032Z NIR COD-GOES-East-local-Houston.03.20190318.203218-over=map-bars=.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I see it out my window
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

What are these clouds around the past few days? Cirrus clouds right? They need to go away! I’m ready to see some sun! Hopefully tomorrow will be better. I’ll be ready to see an inch or two of rain by the weekend if we can get a few days of some sunshine this week.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s through Friday as SE TX finally sees the sun for multiple days. The massive smoke plume will continue drifting across the Houston area for a 3rd day from the Deer Park ITC fire.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2019-03-19 at 5.30.32 AM.png
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 57 guests