Tuesday morning ITC/weather briefing from Jeff:
Fire continues to burn with a smoke plume being generated and moving W to WSW over portions of Harris, Fort Bend, and Waller Counties and then west toward central TX.
Weather conditions continue to remain generally fairly stable with no significant frontal boundaries or storm systems expected over the next 24 hours allowing a general easterly surface and transport wind. Winds this morning have become very light ENE or calm over much of the region with mixing heights having lowered to between 500-1000ft this morning. Winds between now and 1000am may become light NE for a period. The low level temperature inversion that has become established and may lower another few 100 feet this morning before surface heating results in the stable surface layer deepening. Mixing heights are forecast to increase to around 6000ft today which will keep the smoke plume generally elevated above the surface.
As we saw yesterday afternoon, winds this afternoon at the surface will veer around to the east and ESE/SE around 8-15mph while transport winds 1000-3000ft above the ground remain out of the east at 15-20mph.
It should be noted that wind direction and speed at the fire site overnight have shown variations that are different from the background state and this is likely a function of the intense heat cores helping to create local weather effects on wind direction and speed. Rapid fluctuations in wind speed and direction are possible at the fire site.
TCEQ air quality measurements this morning continue to show no areas that are above normal standards for a morning with similar weather conditions in an urban area. Ozone is increasing currently, but this is more a function of an increase in morning traffic with calm winds. PM-2.5 levels remain in the “good” range with the current highest reading of 20.5 around Galena Park.
March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
439
FXUS64 KHGX 190937
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of change with the forecast for the short-term as this
dry/mild weather is expected to persist through rest of the week.
Surface high pressure to the east and a flat zonal flow aloft to
help keep things quiet here. With very limited moisture over the
area (given the dry NE/E low-level flow of late) and the push of
the upper flow/clouds further south, another fairly seasonal day
will be on tap for SE TX the next few days. A weak frontal bound-
ary approaching from the NW late Weds is not expected to produce
any significant precipitation for the CWFA with its passage, but
we should see a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air filter into the
region by Thurs.
Onshore winds are finally progged to return to SE TX by Fri with
the associated surface high moving east of the area and the next
storm system moving off the Rockies, into the Great Plains. With
this system moving quickly off to the NE, the focus will then be
with the next one moving in/developing quickly in its wake. This
second system (and its associated upper trof) is progged to trek
slightly more to the south as it moves east with time. Model PWs
for this time frame are not terribly impressive...but forcing dy-
namics are. As such, will keep with elevated POPs for weekend...
with the higher numbers for the northern counties and lower ones
along the coast. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate easterly flow in place with mid 60 temperatures over the
warmer waters. Winds have been a little stronger than most models
predicted as well as higher seas. Will continue the SCA 20-60nm
waters through 02z but this end time is challenging...although winds
should start to relax a bit this afternoon the fetch will like
continue to feed 5-7 foot seas into the area. Otherwise as the weak
boundary sags southward into SETX Wednesday and Wednesday night will
likely see surface winds swing around to the west then become more
variable with weak high drifting over the waters followed by the
weak dry cold front veering winds to the north and strengthening
Thursday. A brief period of SCEC winds possible but not likely with
the passage. Eventually the high over SETX moves eastward and light
southeasterly flow develops Friday strengthening Saturday.
45
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The northeast to easterly winds 5-10 mph will continue today with a
mix of cloud cover with predominately more sun than clouds. RH will
continue on the dry side though probably not quite as low as
yesterdays 23-35 percent range. Transport winds will be primarily
easterly throughout the day with generous mixing heights developing
this afternoon. Greater recovery on tap Wednesday morning and
Thursday morning. Lighter and more variable winds on Wednesday.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 47 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 56 68 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 190937
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of change with the forecast for the short-term as this
dry/mild weather is expected to persist through rest of the week.
Surface high pressure to the east and a flat zonal flow aloft to
help keep things quiet here. With very limited moisture over the
area (given the dry NE/E low-level flow of late) and the push of
the upper flow/clouds further south, another fairly seasonal day
will be on tap for SE TX the next few days. A weak frontal bound-
ary approaching from the NW late Weds is not expected to produce
any significant precipitation for the CWFA with its passage, but
we should see a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air filter into the
region by Thurs.
Onshore winds are finally progged to return to SE TX by Fri with
the associated surface high moving east of the area and the next
storm system moving off the Rockies, into the Great Plains. With
this system moving quickly off to the NE, the focus will then be
with the next one moving in/developing quickly in its wake. This
second system (and its associated upper trof) is progged to trek
slightly more to the south as it moves east with time. Model PWs
for this time frame are not terribly impressive...but forcing dy-
namics are. As such, will keep with elevated POPs for weekend...
with the higher numbers for the northern counties and lower ones
along the coast. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate easterly flow in place with mid 60 temperatures over the
warmer waters. Winds have been a little stronger than most models
predicted as well as higher seas. Will continue the SCA 20-60nm
waters through 02z but this end time is challenging...although winds
should start to relax a bit this afternoon the fetch will like
continue to feed 5-7 foot seas into the area. Otherwise as the weak
boundary sags southward into SETX Wednesday and Wednesday night will
likely see surface winds swing around to the west then become more
variable with weak high drifting over the waters followed by the
weak dry cold front veering winds to the north and strengthening
Thursday. A brief period of SCEC winds possible but not likely with
the passage. Eventually the high over SETX moves eastward and light
southeasterly flow develops Friday strengthening Saturday.
45
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The northeast to easterly winds 5-10 mph will continue today with a
mix of cloud cover with predominately more sun than clouds. RH will
continue on the dry side though probably not quite as low as
yesterdays 23-35 percent range. Transport winds will be primarily
easterly throughout the day with generous mixing heights developing
this afternoon. Greater recovery on tap Wednesday morning and
Thursday morning. Lighter and more variable winds on Wednesday.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 47 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 56 68 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
I don’t care what the air monitors say, I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near downwind of that cancer plume.
I had to go outside when it started getting darker, just to see if it was rain clouds (wasn't expecting rain) alas, it's just the smoke plume that officials "don't anticipate to have any adverse health effects"...
sigh... https://www.readyharris.org/Deer-Park-Fire
I can smell it in the air here in Cypress
https://twitter.com/hashtag/deerparkfir ... t&src=hash
sigh... https://www.readyharris.org/Deer-Park-Fire
air quality is not at a level of concern and is reflective of typical conditions
I can smell it in the air here in Cypress
https://twitter.com/hashtag/deerparkfir ... t&src=hash
This is the website I used when I was working in China monitoring the air quality.
http://aqicn.org/city/texas/houston/houston-east/
http://aqicn.org/city/texas/houston/houston-east/
Alicia/Jerry/Ike/Typhoon Danas/Typhoon Cham-hom/Harvey/Imelda
Current Ozone & PM-2.5 (Particulate Matter?) maps
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/cgi-bin/comp ... _average=1
PLEASE NOTE: This data has not been verified by the TCEQ and may change. This is the most current data, but it is not official until it has been certified by our technical staff. Data is collected from TCEQ ambient monitoring sites and may include data collected by other outside agencies. This data is updated hourly. All times shown are in local standard time unless otherwise indicated.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Here are all the chemicals in the air
Gasoline
Naphtha
Xylene
Pygas
Toluene
So what part of this is good?
Gasoline
Naphtha
Xylene
Pygas
Toluene
So what part of this is good?
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
I’m pretty sure the plume has shifted around and it looks like it’s above me now. Eerie.
recent shot from Terra MODIS, short link: https://go.nasa.gov/2WaecIg
you can download high-res images at the NASA WorldView site link above
I hope they are utilizing NASA data
https://www-misr.jpl.nasa.gov/getData/accessData/
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data
you can download high-res images at the NASA WorldView site link above
I hope they are utilizing NASA data
https://www-misr.jpl.nasa.gov/getData/accessData/
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:44 pm Here are all the chemicals in the air
Gasoline
Naphtha
Xylene
Pygas
Toluene
So what part of this is good?
from https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/1108082474226274305
KHOU 11 News Houston
Verified account @KHOU
38m38 minutes ago
#DeerParkFire storage tank breakdown: the FIVE tanks in RED are still on fire, the THREE tanks in BLUE have burned out, the TWO tanks in YELLOW are the ones that were empty and have collapsed. Five tanks remain. https://on.khou.com/2HLO02R
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:
Overnight offensive fire fighting operations have extinguished fire on all of the tanks. Crews are actively working to cool tanks and maintain vapor suppression to prevent any sort of re-kindle.
Winds are calm across the entire region this morning and small amounts of smoke that continue to be produced at the site are being trapped near the ground immediately surrounding and just to the W and N of the site over portions of Deer Park, northern Pasadena, Galena Park, and Channelview. Winds are expected to remain extremely light and variable this morning which will help to maintain any emitting smoke close to the source site, but mixing heights rapidly rise to near 5000-7000ft by midday which will help to disperse any remaining smoke.
Air quality sensors continue to show “good” to “moderate” readings both from fixed TCEQ sensors and mobile sampling units that are deployed by various agencies over the area. The East Houston (Clinton) TCEQ site is running the highest of PM 2.5 over any of the last 3 days this morning, but is still considered in the “good range”. Another site that can be used (similar to weather bug www.purpleair.com) is showing slightly more elevated levels, but these sites are not QA/QC’ed so they should be used with caution.
Weather:
Luckily, fairly stable weather over the last few days during the incident greatly helped with the smoke plume transport and modeling as well as air quality. A storm system will start to approach TX later this week and into the weekend with an increase in showers and thunderstorms possible over the weekend, especially in our north and western areas. After and brief period of northerly winds tonight into early Thursday, winds will return from the south and increase Thursday afternoon into Friday allowing Gulf moisture to flow into the area. As a storm system ejects into the central plains over the weekend a series of weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft will move across the region resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight offensive fire fighting operations have extinguished fire on all of the tanks. Crews are actively working to cool tanks and maintain vapor suppression to prevent any sort of re-kindle.
Winds are calm across the entire region this morning and small amounts of smoke that continue to be produced at the site are being trapped near the ground immediately surrounding and just to the W and N of the site over portions of Deer Park, northern Pasadena, Galena Park, and Channelview. Winds are expected to remain extremely light and variable this morning which will help to maintain any emitting smoke close to the source site, but mixing heights rapidly rise to near 5000-7000ft by midday which will help to disperse any remaining smoke.
Air quality sensors continue to show “good” to “moderate” readings both from fixed TCEQ sensors and mobile sampling units that are deployed by various agencies over the area. The East Houston (Clinton) TCEQ site is running the highest of PM 2.5 over any of the last 3 days this morning, but is still considered in the “good range”. Another site that can be used (similar to weather bug www.purpleair.com) is showing slightly more elevated levels, but these sites are not QA/QC’ed so they should be used with caution.
Weather:
Luckily, fairly stable weather over the last few days during the incident greatly helped with the smoke plume transport and modeling as well as air quality. A storm system will start to approach TX later this week and into the weekend with an increase in showers and thunderstorms possible over the weekend, especially in our north and western areas. After and brief period of northerly winds tonight into early Thursday, winds will return from the south and increase Thursday afternoon into Friday allowing Gulf moisture to flow into the area. As a storm system ejects into the central plains over the weekend a series of weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft will move across the region resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
077
FXUS64 KHGX 201240
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
740 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019
.AVIATION...
Patchy shallow fog near GLS/LBX this morning but should be very
short lived. BKN deck of AC to the west should expand eastward
today but scatter out as it does so. Cold front moving through
late afternoon/tonight with northerly winds developing in it`s
wake. VFR.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Dry/mild weather to continue the next few days. A weak cold front
is expected to move through SE TX later this evening...and bring-
ing with it a re-inforcing shot of cool/dry air. No precipitation
will accompany this boundary as it moves across the region, given
the very dry air mass already in place. With high clouds making a
return this afternoon/tonight...we are still not going to see any
big changes from the seasonal temperatures of late for today (and
tomorrow) as the quiet pattern persists.
Looking ahead, the main forecast issues with this package will be
with increased rain chances this weekend. A series of upper level
short-waves moving across the Rockies will help to break down the
weak ridging aloft Fri/Sat. The return of a strengthening onshore
flow (in response) should allow for increasing low-level moisture
and low POPs starting Fri night from the W. Embedded disturbances
in the increasingly SW flow aloft will account for scattered act-
ivity at times on Sat/Sun...with a more organized line of showers
and thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front which
is currently progged for Mon afternoon. 41
FIRE WEATHER...
Slow moistening of the lower levels today and not as gusty as
yesterday was across the southern areas. Mixing heights today should
soar into the 4000-7000ft range late morning/and afternoon.
Lingering smoke should be sparse and getting dispersed quickly from
last evenings fire. 1 minute high res GOES 16 data not showing any
signs of the smoke now but will probably have at least some hints of
it lingering after sunrise. Calm winds across the inland areas early
this morning will be light and variable most of the day. Weak cold
front moves through tonight and northerly flow throughout the column
develops but isn`t very strong. RH values should drop into the upper
20s to lower 30s over most of the area Thursday.
45
MARINE...
SCA for the 20-60nm waters through 7 am for seas of 6-7 feet
subsiding as winds relax early this morning. Light winds regime on
tap until the from arrives late tonight with northerly winds
strengthening but the offshore flow will be short lived as weak high
pressure moves into SETX then across the coastal waters and Friday
winds turn around to the southeast. Strengthening flow Friday
night/Saturday with persistent southeasterly flow into Sunday. Rain
chances on the increase Saturday morning. Stronger cold front
arrives Monday night or Tuesday and expect SCA/SCEC conditions in
it`s wake.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 47 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 48 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 57 69 57 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
FXUS64 KHGX 201240
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
740 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019
.AVIATION...
Patchy shallow fog near GLS/LBX this morning but should be very
short lived. BKN deck of AC to the west should expand eastward
today but scatter out as it does so. Cold front moving through
late afternoon/tonight with northerly winds developing in it`s
wake. VFR.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Dry/mild weather to continue the next few days. A weak cold front
is expected to move through SE TX later this evening...and bring-
ing with it a re-inforcing shot of cool/dry air. No precipitation
will accompany this boundary as it moves across the region, given
the very dry air mass already in place. With high clouds making a
return this afternoon/tonight...we are still not going to see any
big changes from the seasonal temperatures of late for today (and
tomorrow) as the quiet pattern persists.
Looking ahead, the main forecast issues with this package will be
with increased rain chances this weekend. A series of upper level
short-waves moving across the Rockies will help to break down the
weak ridging aloft Fri/Sat. The return of a strengthening onshore
flow (in response) should allow for increasing low-level moisture
and low POPs starting Fri night from the W. Embedded disturbances
in the increasingly SW flow aloft will account for scattered act-
ivity at times on Sat/Sun...with a more organized line of showers
and thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front which
is currently progged for Mon afternoon. 41
FIRE WEATHER...
Slow moistening of the lower levels today and not as gusty as
yesterday was across the southern areas. Mixing heights today should
soar into the 4000-7000ft range late morning/and afternoon.
Lingering smoke should be sparse and getting dispersed quickly from
last evenings fire. 1 minute high res GOES 16 data not showing any
signs of the smoke now but will probably have at least some hints of
it lingering after sunrise. Calm winds across the inland areas early
this morning will be light and variable most of the day. Weak cold
front moves through tonight and northerly flow throughout the column
develops but isn`t very strong. RH values should drop into the upper
20s to lower 30s over most of the area Thursday.
45
MARINE...
SCA for the 20-60nm waters through 7 am for seas of 6-7 feet
subsiding as winds relax early this morning. Light winds regime on
tap until the from arrives late tonight with northerly winds
strengthening but the offshore flow will be short lived as weak high
pressure moves into SETX then across the coastal waters and Friday
winds turn around to the southeast. Strengthening flow Friday
night/Saturday with persistent southeasterly flow into Sunday. Rain
chances on the increase Saturday morning. Stronger cold front
arrives Monday night or Tuesday and expect SCA/SCEC conditions in
it`s wake.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 47 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 48 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 57 69 57 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201705
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019
.AVIATION...
Fcst soundings show a saturated layer around 700 feet this
afternoon so will maintain the SCT/BKN deck into this evening.
Winds will remain light and variable as weak high pressure drifts
over the region. GFS soundings show a deep enough saturated layer
for maybe a few showers between 03-06z but did not include in TAFs
for now. Skies should clear from north to south by sunrise in the
wake of a weak cold front. VFR conds on Thursday with generally
light winds. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/
UPDATE...
Just minor changes to forecast...based on latest
observations and satellite which shows overcast areas in NW
zones...mostly sunny elsewhere. High temperature forecast looks on
target. 18
FXUS64 KHGX 201705
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019
.AVIATION...
Fcst soundings show a saturated layer around 700 feet this
afternoon so will maintain the SCT/BKN deck into this evening.
Winds will remain light and variable as weak high pressure drifts
over the region. GFS soundings show a deep enough saturated layer
for maybe a few showers between 03-06z but did not include in TAFs
for now. Skies should clear from north to south by sunrise in the
wake of a weak cold front. VFR conds on Thursday with generally
light winds. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/
UPDATE...
Just minor changes to forecast...based on latest
observations and satellite which shows overcast areas in NW
zones...mostly sunny elsewhere. High temperature forecast looks on
target. 18
Interesting....
Probably no big surprise, but the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have officially retired both Hurricane Florence and Michael. The replacement names for 2024 will be Francine and Milton.
More info: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 226750002/
More info: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 226750002/
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Another day where several school districts are closed. A shelter-in-place has been re-issued for Deer Park after levels of Benzene were reported -
La Porte ISD
Pasadena ISD
Sheldon ISD
Galena ParkISD
Channelview ISD
Deer Park ISD
Following school districts are closed today:BREAKING UPDATE AT 5:15 AM THURS: "As a result of tank fire incident we are experiencing action levels of Benzene. It is recommended that industrial and public neighbors South of Tidal Road, East of Beltway 8, West of Underwood, and North of Pasadena Blvd. take shelter in place precautions until further notice."
La Porte ISD
Pasadena ISD
Sheldon ISD
Galena ParkISD
Channelview ISD
Deer Park ISD
- Attachments
-
- Shelter-In-Place
Last edited by Belmer on Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Braskem's La Porte facility also issued a shelter-in-place notice this morning, it's about 2 miles SSE from ITC, as the crow flies
http://www.ehcma.org/caeronline/
https://goo.gl/maps/aREGkFgKX4C2
http://www.ehcma.org/caeronline/
https://goo.gl/maps/aREGkFgKX4C2
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211008
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Per obs, the latest cold front looks to be just off the coast this
morning. Weak CAA noted in the wake of this boundary thus far, but
the slightly lower dewpoints filtering into the region will likely
have impacts with fire weather concerns this afternoon. Otherwise,
this mild/dry weather will prevail another day or so as high pres-
sure remains the in charge.
With the surface high moving further east by tomorrow...the return
of onshore winds will also herald the return of low-level moisture
and warmer temperatures. This SE flow will be strengthening during
the evening/overnight (Fri night into Sat morning) as the next up-
per trof moves into the Southern Plains and deepens. While progged
PWs are not terribly impressive (1.0-1.3"), there should be enough
to interact with any short-waves (moving in just ahead of the main
system) on Sat to produce isolated/scattered activity. The highest
POPs will likely range from north to south (given the proximity of
the upper low as it lift out to the NE). Will maintain some lowish
POPs for Sun as the onshore flow/slightly elevated PWs remain over
the area. Daytime heating/seabreeze should be the main triggers.
These latest (00Z) runs are not quite as aggressive with this next
cold front on Mon...but are still indicating FROPA late Mon after-
noon. Rain chances look much lower with its passage, perhaps owing
to the pronounced W/SW low-level flow ahead of it early Mon. Drier
and slightly cooler weather expected in its wake for Tues/Weds. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front moving through the coastal waters and winds should
increase a little this morning becoming more northeasterly with time
today. A seabreeze will likely develop and alter winds locally along
the ICW and bays. Southeasterly flow developing Friday strengthening
into Saturday. Gradual moistening through the weekend and could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday around Matagorda bay
(less likely for the nearshore waters and Galveston Bay areas) with
rain chances lingering Sunday through Tuesday morning. A stronger
cold front swings through early Tuesday.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR for the area with a narrow scattered mid level deck around 6000-
7000ft shifting southward this morning. Patchy fog around BYY/LBX
areas this morning should mix out as the north and northeasterly
winds pick up slightly by 13z. Most of the area terminals will see
west or northwest winds becoming northeasterly with time. Weak
seabreeze developing this afternoon to impact GLS/LBX. Cirrus on the
increase tomorrow morning. Again may see some fog around LBX/BYY
areas Friday morning.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 47 77 55 74 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 76 49 78 55 75 / 0 0 0 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 71 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 211008
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Per obs, the latest cold front looks to be just off the coast this
morning. Weak CAA noted in the wake of this boundary thus far, but
the slightly lower dewpoints filtering into the region will likely
have impacts with fire weather concerns this afternoon. Otherwise,
this mild/dry weather will prevail another day or so as high pres-
sure remains the in charge.
With the surface high moving further east by tomorrow...the return
of onshore winds will also herald the return of low-level moisture
and warmer temperatures. This SE flow will be strengthening during
the evening/overnight (Fri night into Sat morning) as the next up-
per trof moves into the Southern Plains and deepens. While progged
PWs are not terribly impressive (1.0-1.3"), there should be enough
to interact with any short-waves (moving in just ahead of the main
system) on Sat to produce isolated/scattered activity. The highest
POPs will likely range from north to south (given the proximity of
the upper low as it lift out to the NE). Will maintain some lowish
POPs for Sun as the onshore flow/slightly elevated PWs remain over
the area. Daytime heating/seabreeze should be the main triggers.
These latest (00Z) runs are not quite as aggressive with this next
cold front on Mon...but are still indicating FROPA late Mon after-
noon. Rain chances look much lower with its passage, perhaps owing
to the pronounced W/SW low-level flow ahead of it early Mon. Drier
and slightly cooler weather expected in its wake for Tues/Weds. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front moving through the coastal waters and winds should
increase a little this morning becoming more northeasterly with time
today. A seabreeze will likely develop and alter winds locally along
the ICW and bays. Southeasterly flow developing Friday strengthening
into Saturday. Gradual moistening through the weekend and could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday around Matagorda bay
(less likely for the nearshore waters and Galveston Bay areas) with
rain chances lingering Sunday through Tuesday morning. A stronger
cold front swings through early Tuesday.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR for the area with a narrow scattered mid level deck around 6000-
7000ft shifting southward this morning. Patchy fog around BYY/LBX
areas this morning should mix out as the north and northeasterly
winds pick up slightly by 13z. Most of the area terminals will see
west or northwest winds becoming northeasterly with time. Weak
seabreeze developing this afternoon to impact GLS/LBX. Cirrus on the
increase tomorrow morning. Again may see some fog around LBX/BYY
areas Friday morning.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 47 77 55 74 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 76 49 78 55 75 / 0 0 0 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 71 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$