FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[Cpv17]

I didn’t expect the isolated thunderstorms around. I expected more of a widespread light to moderate steady rain around today. Never happened.

[Cpv17]

Winter doesn’t appear to be over with according to the CPC.

[srainhoutx]

48F with drizzle now. We had some small hail not too far away earlier in the day with the isolated storms. I have seen this sort of pattern many time over the years during Trail Ride. Rodeo time seems to always bring a good cold shot and a chance at dreary weather.

[Cpv17]

I thought it was supposed to be raining this morning lol

It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard

We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week.

I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.

[Katdaddy]

Light rain and mist this morning across along the Upper TX Coast will move E and NE today into LA. Another round of sun possible later this afternoon and evening before more clouds and rain chances Thursday through Saturday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

After a cloudy and in some places wet morning…skies will clear from the NW to the SE in the next few hours allowing some sun…enjoy…it will be short lived.

Coastal trough and associated surface low responsible for the fog, drizzle, and rain on Tuesday has moved inland over the central Gulf coast with the associated cold front pushing back into the central Gulf of Mexico. Low clouds over the area will decrease this morning, but upper level cirrus will continue to stream across the region as the sub-tropical jet stream remains overhead.

Next short wave in the nearly stationary SW US trough will begin to approach the region tonight and low clouds will rapidly develop and lower with drizzle and fog also likely as the central Gulf front begins to back northward toward the coast. As another surface low forms over the NW Gulf lift develops over the top of the surface cold pool in place with showers and maybe a thunderstorm developing on Thursday. Warm front will advance inland Thursday night with drizzle, sea fog, and passing showers continuing into at least Friday morning. Warm sector air mass may become entrenched enough over the area by Friday afternoon to result in a more convective shower. Sea fog will likely plague the coastal locations early Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures and winds will be all over the place with frontal passages and surface lows moving across the NW Gulf. Sun today will help warm the area into the 60’s, but cool NE winds and rain on Thursday will keep us locked in the 50’s. Warm frontal passage Thursday night will result in 70’s on Friday and mid 70’s on Saturday prior to a cold front Saturday evening.

Surface low yesterday and strong easterly winds pushed water on to Bolivar and required a short fused coastal flood advisory. Don’t think the surface low event coming up on Thursday will be as strong with lower wind speeds and tides should not cause any significant issues.

Next storm system and cold front will move across the area on Saturday afternoon. SPC has outlooked areas just to our NE for a severe weather threat Saturday afternoon and evening as this cold front comes crashing into the well defined warm sector. Think areas of SE TX will see a line of showers and thunderstorms at some point on Saturday and then a much drier air mass with westerly winds will filter into the area for Saturday night and Sunday which will help clear skies and allow for a sunny Sunday.

Pattern repeats again early next week with yet another short wave and coastal trough/surface low combo moving up the coast. Expect rapidly increasing clouds and rain chances starting as early as Sunday evening, but more likely Monday into Tuesday.

While the overall pattern is wet, rainfall amounts will generally be light…on the order of .25 to .75 of an inch over the next 2-4 days with the greatest amounts to the NE and the lesser amounts toward Matagorda Bay. Much of the weather will be fog, drizzle, and light rain with an occasional passing heavier shower or thunderstorm.

[CrashTestDummy]

It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard

We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week.

I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.

The ground is so saturated around here, .10" gets us back to water standing in the yard. We've had .12" in the past 24 hours.

[Cpv17]

We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week.

I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.

The ground is so saturated around here, .10" gets us back to water standing in the yard. We've had .12" in the past 24 hours.

That’s how it was here two weeks ago. It’s dried out pretty well since then though.

[BlueJay]

FULL MOON TONIGHT!

[srainhoutx]

Elevated storms are sweeping N across the Region this morning. The 3rd round of thunderstorms are arriving now. Woke me out of a sound sleep. Those storms where not expected until later today. Just goes to show how progressive our weather pattern is right now.

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving across SE TX this morning. The cloudy gloomy weather is back for several days. Perhaps some clearing Saturday afternoon and Sunday still looks mostly sunny.

[snowman65]

hey....it's raining...,.imagine that!

[tireman4]

335
FXUS64 KHGX 211148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Low pressure off the lower texas coast will move north today. The
low and associated warm front will produce periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Fcst soundings show some capping
near 700 mb and lapse rates/instability not terribly high so feel
the threat for thunder is low but not zero. Ceilings will lower
throughout the day, transitioning from VFR to IFR by evening with
LIFR expected after 00z. Fcst soundings show drying from the
top/down after 00z and this looks favorable for drizzle between
03-12z. Surface dew points will warm into the lower/mid 60`s after
06z toward the coast and KGLS might have to contend with dense
sea fog later tonight as well. Lastly, another disturbance on
Friday morning will produce additional morning storms over mainly
the eastern half of the CWA and added a VCTS for KIAH, KHOU and
KGLS after 10z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure over central TX has moved eastward while a surface
low pressure located over western Gulf of Mexico continues to move
northwards towards the lower TX coast. After midnight, light to
moderate showers moved inland northward from the Gulf waters as
another area of isolated shower activity to the north expanded
across the northern counties. By 3 AM CST early this morning, most
of the CWA had scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms quickly moving north to northeast. Due to how fast
they were moving, accumulations were not significant...most of
the rainfall totals observed were less than half of an inch.

There are several things to consider for today through Saturday.
A surface low and associated warm front will continue to move
towards the local coastal waters today, resulting in isentropic
lift across the region. Models show a surge of low level moisture
spreading across the CWA this morning with PWAT values of
1.10-1.50 inches by around noon today decreasing slightly
tonight. Expect a wet and unstable weather pattern today with
periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the
local area, slightly decreasing this evening.

Another surge in low level moisture is seen Friday morning and
Friday afternoon which coincides with the timing of the warm front
associated to the surface low moving over the region. Southerly
flow Friday will also aid in the transport of the warm moist air.
An upper level low will gradually move across the Rockies
Thursday night though Friday with the cold front approaching the
northern portion SE TX Saturday morning.

PWAT values Friday afternoon reach up to around 1.70 inches.
Guidance shows pulses of vorticity in the 500 MB layer moving in
and out of the local area, particularly over the eastern and
northern counties Thursday through Friday. Soundings Friday
afternoon show K index values of over 30, while also showing
favorable CAPE and shear values for the development of strong
showers and thunderstorms, particularly over the northern
counties. The latest Hi-Res Precip run is in agreement with
placing the heaviest/strongest activity across the aforementioned
areas through Saturday morning. The current POP model blend
represents this as well, with the highest POPs residing over the
eastern and northern counties of the CWA through Saturday morning.
Additionally, SPCs Day 2 Outlook continues with a marginal risk
of severe storms across the north and northeastern counties for
Friday night through early Saturday morning. In general,
conditions will continue to be favorable for periods of showers
and thunderstorms today through Saturday morning.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday will range between the
upper 60s to the mid 70s due to the warm/moist air mass in place.
Highs should range between the low to upper 60s during the rest of
the forecast period. Low temperatures should range between the
low 40s to upper 50s everyday expect Friday night were lows will
be up in the low to upper 60s. 24

MARINE...

Moderate NE winds have developed in response to high pressure
northeast of the region and low pressure off the south Texas coast.
The pressure gradient will relax later today as the low moves north.
Winds will veer to the E tonight as the low approaches the coast and
continue to veer to the SE on Friday as the low and associated
warm front tracks into Texas.

Warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters could yield
areas of sea fog possibly as early as tonight but more likely Fri
and Sat. However, the onshore flow strengthens Fri nite and
additional mixing may limit the fog threat. A SCEC may be required
for the Gulf waters Fri Nite. The next cold front is expected to
cross the coastal waters late Saturday afternoon. This should end
the fog threat as an offshore flow develops. Another brief SCEC may
be required for the 20-60 NM waters in the wake of the front on
Sunday. Winds will veer to the E-NE on Sun Nite through early Tues
and a fairly stout and persistent east wind will prevail for about
30-36 hours. Tide levels could again briefly exceed 3.0 feet along
the Bolivar peninsula Monday into Tuesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 50 67 58 69 / 50 50 70 70 60
Houston (IAH) 58 55 73 66 74 / 80 60 70 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 63 60 70 65 73 / 70 60 40 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43

[CrashTestDummy]

hey....it's raining...,.imagine that!

Yup! There goes our chances for draining the swamp. :-/

Almost a 1/2" here this morning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211559
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Warm air advection pattern continues this morning with isentropic
lift and elevated instability supporting showers and a few
thunderstorms over top drizzle/light rain. Coastal trough is still
off the coast with a broad area low pressure developing on it
between CRP and 42019 buoy. This pattern should continue today and
tonight with a warm front pushing north tomorrow which will bring
more wet weather to the area. Main changes to the forecast were
to update PoP/Wx/QPF based on current trends. Also updated T/Td
trends as there should not be much warming today.

Overpeck

[jasons2k]

Think there will be a break in the rain so I can get a run in later today or tomorrow? I need to run again before Sunday!

[tireman4]

Think there will be a break in the rain so I can get a run in later today or tomorrow? I need to run again before Sunday!

Well, there is a treadmill. Will be using mine!!

[Kingwood36]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

[BlueJay]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

That is the million dollar question. I think the answer is "Yes" or "No".

[Cpv17]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

No, not yet.