FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[Cpv17]

Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.

Models and forecasts seem to be getting worse instead of better imo.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings persist across SE TX. The clouds are
thin and would expect strong mixing to allow VFR conditions to
prevail this afternoon into this evening. A tight pressure
gradient will also foster strong and gusty S-SW winds across area
TAF sites into this evening. The winds will relax this evening but
not fully decouple. A wide variety of model solutions for tonight
but there is a general consensus that MVFR ceilings will
develop after 06z with a transition to IFR ceilings after 10z.
SREF fog products show high probabilities of fog over the W-SW TAF
sites tonight. Not sure this will occur as winds don`t fully
decouple. MVFR ceilings on Friday will mix out with scattered
clouds developing after 18z. 43

[unome]

Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.

Models and forecasts seem to be getting worse instead of better imo.

Capital Weather Gang/Jason Samenow wrote a column on that yesterday: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... 42cb790867

The Weather Service prepares to launch prediction model that many forecasters don’t trust

Dr Shepherd has a kinder view: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... b0d9c36c2b

[srainhoutx]

Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.

Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.

Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...

[sau27]

Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.

Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.

Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...

I am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.

[Cpv17]

Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.

Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.

Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...

I am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.

If the Europeans can get it right (or at least somewhat right) I don’t understand why us Americans can’t.

[jasons2k]

The weather today was absolutely gorgeous!! Convertible weather!

[Andrew]

Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.

Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.

Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...

I am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.

If the Europeans can get it right (or at least somewhat right) I don’t understand why us Americans can’t.

A lot of it has to do with funding. If the NWS charged as much as the ECMWF does for their products you would have more than enough to support it. At the end of the day though I feel like both models have improved rather dramatically over the last 10 years and will continue to do so as technology advances.

[Cromagnum]

Pea soup outside this morning. Bring on that front to blow this mess out of here. I got flower beds to weed and mulch.

[mckinne63]

Started out warm and muggy this morning. Had a few sprinkles on the windshield. Temps feel pretty darn good right now though.

[Katdaddy]

The cold front is slowing moving across the Upper TX. The front passed through Houston with temps in the low 60s now while its 75F in Angleton. It will stall along the coast or just offshore before moving back inland tonight. A few brief rays of sun would be nice but not likely today. Perhaps tomorrow some brief sun before, you guessed it………more gloomy and wet weather arrives Monday through next weekend. BLAAAAHHHHH!!!

[mckinne63]

Very overcast this morning. Had some drizzly rain this morning. We were going to cut our palm fronds, but everything is very damp outside.

[BlueJay]

Peeks of sun for us on this chilly afternoon.

[mckinne63]

The sun! The SUN! I see the sun!

[Katdaddy]

Well the clearing moved across the Upper TX Coast this afternoon resulting in a beautiful mostly sunny evening followed by a beautiful sunset. Very well needed after the gloomy skies and the sun was so refreshing!!!

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to monitor for the potential of heavy training rainfall and possibly some stronger storms capable of dropping some isolated small hail Tuesday into Tuesday night. A vigorous storm system ejects into the Plains and a Coastal Low/Trough with favorable dynamics associated with upper level disturbances riding a very noisy sub tropical jet may bring some weather excitement to the area.

[Texaspirate11]

Hey it`s El Nino what did you
expect sunshine and dry?
45

Good one, NWS

[Cpv17]

We'll need to monitor for the potential of heavy training rainfall and possibly some stronger storms capable of dropping some isolated small hail Tuesday into Tuesday night. A vigorous storm system ejects into the Plains and a Coastal Low/Trough with favorable dynamics associated with upper level disturbances riding a very noisy sub tropical jet may bring some weather excitement to the area.

What makes you say that? None of the models I’ve looked at have more than 1-2” across our area for the whole week. The heavier training rainfall appears to be well north and east of us.

[Belmer]

I think the key word in Steve's post was 'potential' though chances are fairly low. Great discussion by Overpeck today from the NWS -

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
252 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Temperatures this afternoon have reached the mid 60s with a
steady stream of thin high clouds with some breaks. High pressure
continues to build over the Plains keeping NE winds in place over
SE Texas with dewpoints in the 30s. Frontal boundary continues to
push into the central Gulf slowly. Overall it has been a nice day
to be outside and enjoy.

Upper level analysis from 12Z upper air data shows a very potent
jet stream from west Texas NE to New England today with an upper
low approaching the Four Corners region. Jet streak and vorticity
maximum seen in water vapor imagery along the California coast
should continue to round the base of the low tonight into
tomorrow. As this happens, model guidance shows isentropic lift
increasing overnight in response to lowering 850mb heights in the
lee of the Rockies. Isentropic lift should be ongoing on just
about any level, but the 295K theta surface seems to be in the
thick of it all.

All this means is that moisture will be riding over the frontal
surface leading to drizzle, rain and eventually fog tomorrow
morning. Fog looks to be somewhat delayed and a function of
drizzle. To avoid any weather type confusion, forecast will read
showers but there will be a mix of drizzle/light rain when there
are not showers passing.

Overpeck

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Tomorrow it is going to rain for a number of reasons. First there
is the aforementioned isentropic lift that only increases during
the day which will support areas of showers. As the upper low
moves into the southern Rockies, the right entrance region of the
upper level jet becomes more oriented over SE Texas allowing for
large scale ascent for more rain. Next in response to this jet
streak, there is an increase in the LLJ in which by tomorrow
afternoon there could be 850mb winds near 40 knots across the
eastern half of the area. This will serve as a moisture axis as
well helping to channel shower activity. After that, let`s throw
in an increase in moisture with precipitable water values around
1.7 to 1.8 inches for the eastern half of the forecast area
aligned with the LLJ. Looking at forecast soundings, lapse rates
will be enough to support elevated thunderstorms. Recent SPC day 2
outlook has a marginal risk drawn closer to the forecast area
than before. Given the set up of the LLJ this seems to make sense
and where elevated convection may be strongest for a hail/wind
threat. Individual storms will be moving quickly from S/SW to N/NE
so rainfall rates may not be quite as high. Rain rates may also
be limited due to the instability being elevated and not as robust
as compared to surface based convection. A coastal low should
develop along the front tomorrow and move along it up the Upper
Texas Coast. This will continue to help pump moisture north and
increase tide levels at the coast. Not only that, there is the
small chance the warm sector could move just inland but guidance
is consistent with keeping the warm sector airmass just inland of
SW LA. This might be where there is a slightly higher threat for
severe weather than SE Texas.

Where may we expect higher rainfall amounts tomorrow? First along
the LLJ and moisture axis. Hi-res models keep this mainly east of
I-45 but still a chance it could be centered to the west. Even
then, rainfall totals look to be around a half inch with passing
showers albeit somewhat training. The second location will likely
be from Huntsville to Lufkin NE into the Arklatex where 850mb
frontogenesis will be maximum. Models are really hitting areas NE
into Arkansas with the higher rainfall amounts over 1 inch. Closer
to SE Texas along this axis, rainfall amounts look to be between
a half inch and an inch. Again a solid half inch to an inch of
rain across the area probably will not cause much of a flood
problem although given very moist soils, any rainfall should run
of pretty quickly. There could be some rapid rises on area creeks
and bayous but likely stay in banks.

A cold front should push through in wake of this upper level
trough and push into the Gulf Wednesday night. The front then
stalls as upper level flow remains from the SW and another trough
forms over the Great Basin by Thursday morning.

Overpeck

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

We are going to quite literally write wash...rinse...repeat for
this part of the forecast discussion for Thursday through Saturday
and then again next Monday and Tuesday. You can pretty much copy
what was written above and insert hear for the discussion of the
Friday/Saturday system, take a break Saturday night into Sunday
and copy it again for Monday next week. Now there is more
uncertainty in the details for next week but there is some model
consistency to be had. That means we will be looking at another
half inch to an inch of rain for the area and the sogginess
continues (thanks El Nino).

Overpeck

[Texaspirate11]

We're going to be in this wet pattern for a while.
Like our NWS said
"THANKS, EL NINO"