FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances
- srainhoutx
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Temperature has dropped to 45F in my backyard. That's a 27 degree drop since 2:00 AM. Rain out West looks to be a bit further N as well.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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- tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281800
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019
.DISCUSSION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
A weak front continues to slowly move across the southern portions
of the CWA and into the coastal waters. Visibilities and ceilings
have been slow to improve this morning with most TAF sites still
under LIFR-IFR conditions. A gradually improvement in visibilites
is expected this afternoon though ceilings are expected to remain
MVFR to IFR throughout the TAF period.
An upper level disturbance will move across the region today.
This will result in periods of SHRA and Iso TSRA mainly south of
I-10 this afternoon. Strong storms are capable of producing
frequent cloud-cloud and cloud-ground lightning, gusty variable
winds, and possible small hail. Heavy rainfall could also result
in periods of LIFR-IFR visibilites. VCTS are in place from 22-01Z
for IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS and TEMPOs may be issued for these sites
this afternoon.
Winds will be mainly from the N at 5-10 knots decreasing this
evening to around 5 knots or less and becoming E to SE early
Friday morning. 24
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 281800
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019
.DISCUSSION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
A weak front continues to slowly move across the southern portions
of the CWA and into the coastal waters. Visibilities and ceilings
have been slow to improve this morning with most TAF sites still
under LIFR-IFR conditions. A gradually improvement in visibilites
is expected this afternoon though ceilings are expected to remain
MVFR to IFR throughout the TAF period.
An upper level disturbance will move across the region today.
This will result in periods of SHRA and Iso TSRA mainly south of
I-10 this afternoon. Strong storms are capable of producing
frequent cloud-cloud and cloud-ground lightning, gusty variable
winds, and possible small hail. Heavy rainfall could also result
in periods of LIFR-IFR visibilites. VCTS are in place from 22-01Z
for IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS and TEMPOs may be issued for these sites
this afternoon.
Winds will be mainly from the N at 5-10 knots decreasing this
evening to around 5 knots or less and becoming E to SE early
Friday morning. 24
&&
So tired of the damned rain. Yard is a swamp. Weeds are rampant because I cannot do anything about it, and the mosquito plague is on the way.
Rain chances for today have been raised up to 50% but that’s still behind the curve. The fine folks at the NWS do an outstanding job but boy did they bust today.
In Stafford make that 100%! It's been raining here most of the afternoon. It is light, but still rain. Glad we went to the rodeo last night and not going this evening.
When I looked at the weather forecast on my phone this morning and observed a 50% chance of rain here and there I did not think that meant basically 100% chance of rain everywhere all day, which is what I've experienced.
I love the rain, but must admit the weather has been putting a damper on my jogging grove. Hard to enjoy a nice run when everywhere is rainy and wet all the time. Rain today, rain yesterday, rain the day before that... feels like the spring rains have arrived early this yer. Oh, well, guess I'll try to make the best of it.
I love the rain, but must admit the weather has been putting a damper on my jogging grove. Hard to enjoy a nice run when everywhere is rainy and wet all the time. Rain today, rain yesterday, rain the day before that... feels like the spring rains have arrived early this yer. Oh, well, guess I'll try to make the best of it.
from NWS on "Precipitation Probability", light reading: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/Weath ... on/pop.pdf
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the most least understood elements of the weather forecast.