FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Something I read today:
A study in the British medical journal The Lancet reached the following conclusion:

Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries.
harp
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:34 pm Good sign if you want winter wx here. 18z GFS is a soaker for our area:

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If those maps of the CFS verify that srain posted then it should be plenty cold for frozen stuff here.
Louisiana as well!!! :) :)
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Long ways out but:

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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Warming temperatures along with rain chance through the weekend.

Arctic high pressure under the much dramatized term “polar vortex” is starting to move eastward into the NE US and this is allowing winds locally to shift more toward the E and ESE today. Solid mid level cloud deck is in place and this deck will lower and thicken through the day as moisture continues to increase from the SW. A coastal trough and surface low has formed near Brownsville this morning and will drift slowly NNE today and then ENE out over the Gulf waters tonight. Lift and moisture advection on the northern side of this feature will support high rain chances over the Gulf waters and into the coastal sections of SE TX this afternoon and tonight. It is uncertain how far inland the rain showers may extend, but think areas south of I-10 have the best chances this afternoon and evening.

SW flow aloft will continue to bring weak short waves across the area today-Saturday. With increasing southerly flow and moisture advection, rain chances will be in the forecast and really just about any time through Saturday. Will keep rain chance below 50% for now as none of the short wave moving up from the SW look overly strong, so the end result will likely be scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Saturday morning wave looks to be the strongest and may result in a few more thunderstorms over the area.

Other item of interest over the next few days will be the onset of nearshore sea fog which seems increasingly likely given the prolonged onshore winds and the threat for dewpoints rising above nearshore water temperatures. Wind flow out of the ESE/SE is most favorable for widespread sea fog bank formation and that will be in place today into Friday. Dewpoints will steadily rise into the 60’s and likely mid 60’s over the weekend and with nearshore water temperatures in the mid 50’s sea fog is looking likely. Sea fog will spread into the coastal sections of the area each evening and linger well into the daylight hours. Rapid visibility reductions can be expected near the coast for the next few days.

Next front is not expected until sometime toward the middle of next week allowing a decent period of weather. Highs will rise toward 70 by Sunday and then into the mid 70’s early next week under a continued warm air advection pattern.
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snowman65
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harp wrote: Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:41 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:34 pm Good sign if you want winter wx here. 18z GFS is a soaker for our area:

Image

If those maps of the CFS verify that srain posted then it should be plenty cold for frozen stuff here.
Louisiana as well!!! :) :)
y'all should know better by now lol
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

.AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings/visibilities and increasing -RA/-SHRA coverage can
be expected today and tonight. MVFR levels are anticipated, and IFR
levels are possible. Think best TSRA potential will be off the coast.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019/

DISCUSSION...

After a pleasant, albeit cold, start to the week, we`ll begin a
transition where both descriptors are likely to flip. Temperatures
are expected to become warmer - with low temperature values near
seasonal highs - but also more dreary, with frequent chances of
rain, clouds, and sea fog. This may well continue deep into next
week, until a cold front comes to clear rain chances out and cool
things down on Wednesday or Thursday.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A solid ceiling of 4-6k feet has covered Southeast Texas, and
an overcast sky should be expected to continue through the day.
Despite that, look for a warmer day tomorrow, due in large part to
the fact that temperatures across the area are already near their
daily max from yesterday, and are probably only on their way up as
moderate to strong onshore flow sets up over the Gulf and warm
advection taking place at 850 mb. If there were sun, we could
perhaps make more of a run at warmer temperatures, but we should
look to build to around 60 degrees across the area.

While the radar is relatively empty until you get down to
Brownsville, there is a weak surface low developing down there,
and it should slowly scrape up the lower Texas coast, and rain
showers should accordingly drift up our way as well. As the low
moves up, we should start to see better convergence along the
coast as rain becomes more likely deeper into the day. Further
inland, things are perhaps a little less clear. A shortwave trough
does look to pass across the region today, and the TTU WRF, HRRR
and NAM hint at development of some light showers over much of the
area, while the RAP stays drier. The HREF is also pretty dry,
keeping rain largely confined to the Gulf and much of the
immediate coastal area. Tend to suspect the TTU WRF and HRRR may
be overconvective a bit, so I`ll keep the highest PoPs right on
the coast, but will not go HREF/RAP dry, either.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A bit of uncertain certainty tonight in the behavior of this
coastal low - some guidance brings the low itself out over the
Gulf, while other guidance brings the original low slowly inland
and fills it in, while an MCS sets up over the Gulf and spawns a
mesolow. In the end, it may not make much of a difference, as the
effective result is pretty similar. Rain showers will be most
likely over the water, a bit less so on the coast, and less of a
chance inland, and the low pressure (however it gets there) over
the Gulf moves off to the east, decreasing rain chances by
morning.

Look for another shortwave to roll through Friday, and only a
brief moment of upper ridging Friday night until a more
substantial upper trough rolls through Texas on Saturday. It is
probably little surprise, then, that rain chances never really
leave us through the first half of the weekend. The sustained,
slow warming trend also continues through this period. Again,
clouds and rain will hold things back some, but persistent onshore
flow and low level warm advection should keep on nudging temps up.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

If we have a stretch most likely to dry out...and maybe see a bit
of a break in the cloud cover, it will be Sunday and Monday. An
upper trough will drop off the Rockies and eject northeastward to
the Great Lakes, bringing a deepening surface low along with it.
That low will drop a front down into Texas, but a lingering
midlevel ridge over the Gulf looks to be just strong enough to
hold that front off and wash it out short of our area. We appear
to be on a bit of a razor`s edge with this, but there`s pretty
strong consensus in the guidance that this weak ridging will hold,
so outside of a little bit of a veering in winds up around College
Station...have no impact in our area.

However, by midweek, that ridge`s axis should move off to the
eastern edge of the Gulf, which will provide just enough of a
window for the next front to at least push into the region on
Wednesday. And here is where the guidance begins to diverge
wildly. The GFS slams things on through with a quick frontal
passage on Wednesday and a strong progressive motion of the upper
trough. The Euro, on the other hand, holds the pattern a bit more
stagnant, and doesn`t bring through the upper trough/front combo
until Thursday. This...plays right into these models`
stereotypical bias at medium/long range. Thanks, models, very
helpful of you. FWIW, the Canadian appears to be even slower than
the Euro. For now, given little compelling evidence to sell out
for either a quicker or slower FROPA, will take the forecast of
least regret at this point with a compromise front moving through
Wednesday night. This may well end up working out...at the very
least, this buys us some time to gain clarity on the situation
before shifting the forecast to the end that appears most likely.

MARINE...

Moderate east winds (caution speeds most of the time) and
elevated seas (caution/advisory levels) will persist through
the end of the week. Areas of rain with maybe some embedded
showers or thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Lighter southeast to south winds will return to the area
over the weekend. Look for a slight increase in south winds
during the first half of next week. The area`s next cold front
is not expected to push off the coast until Wed/Thu of next week.

A warmer airmass will begin moving over the colder shelf waters
Friday and into next week setting the stage for some sea fog
development. This could end up being a somewhat prolonged fog
event considering the next cold front isn`t expected to push
off the coast until Wed/Thur of next week. There`s still a lot
of details to be worked out in the meantime (timing, sct showers
that could temporarily mix things out, etc). 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 53 67 56 68 / 40 30 20 30 40
Houston (IAH) 60 54 67 57 68 / 40 40 20 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 59 57 62 58 63 / 70 60 30 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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srainhoutx
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Our Teleconnection Indices are beginning to suggest a much more favorable Hemispheric Pattern for potentially delivering colder air to our Region. These Indices are actually the most favorable we have seen all Winter. Will they deliver colder air down here to Texas? That remains to be seen.
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redneckweather
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I'm seeing some negative teens/20's through the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada with -30's plus north of there over the Amundsen Gulf and Banks Island. That's a good start with cold continuing to build in those regions per models. We will see...
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:03 am Long ways out but:

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12z showed a severe ice storm across central and north central texas. Should be a fun model watching week.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Frankly, for us to get a nice storm down here we need north Texas to have their fun first followed right up with another front with an active STJ.

The 1997 storm was a great example of that.
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Cpv17
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Models aren’t too enthusiastic atm about a strong front making it down here for next week. Most of the cold air stays locked up north.
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CRASHWX
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What’s interesting is the GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC all show a winter storm in Texas...all three flitting with SETEX...don’t know about Euro...yesterday evening Greg Bostwick with KFDM said he was watching this one because the set up was looking favorable...he never says anything unless he has some degree of confidence.
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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CRASHWX wrote: Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:59 pm What’s interesting is the GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC all show a winter storm in Texas...all three flitting with SETEX...don’t know about Euro...yesterday evening Greg Bostwick with KFDM said he was watching this one because the set up was looking favorable...he never says anything unless he has some degree of confidence.
EURO didn't show much....still plenty of time..
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yeah euro is blah blah but it looks wet next weekend thats for sure
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CRASHWX wrote: Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:59 pm What’s interesting is the GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC all show a winter storm in Texas...all three flitting with SETEX...don’t know about Euro
None of the models are really showing any cold air in Texas. Nothing that makes you say wow anyway..actually not even close to that..especially the Euro. All the models seem to have the cold air stay up in Canada and across the northern parts of the U.S.

Seems like we’re lacking something to drive it south. Maybe a stronger high pressure that actually moves south out of Canada instead of ese?
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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook for Day 6 to 10 suggests below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The Forecast Discussion for this period is in very good agreement via the guidance. Note where the coldest air is located. That is completely opposite of what we have seen lately. I will add the Day 8 to 14 Outlook is much less straight forward there is an extreme lack of uncertainty with volatility in the guidance. I did notice the CFSv2 and NAEFS Climate Models are much more aggressive with colder air all the way into Texas and are showing abundant moisture from a noisy sub tropical jet into at least the mid February timeframe. For the time being, watch our Source Region of NW Canada temperatures over the next week and see if they in fact turn much colder. If we are going to get some very chilly cold air down here in Texas, we need to see a 1050mb+ Arctic High dropping out of Canada into Montana/Wyoming and the Central Plains. We haven't seen that yet so far and the closet we got to actually getting a cold high was way back last November when we had received flurries in SE Texas and that was just a 1045mb high if I recall correctly.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 31 2019

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 10 2019

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA.
DOWNSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT INDICATES NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER
THE REST OF ALASKA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
UNDERNEATH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 90 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE MULTIPLE WAVES OF VERY LARGE
NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER FORECAST
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, UNDER PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THERE IS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. AN ACTIVE STORM
TRACK IS FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST, LEADING TO PROBABLE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
GULF COAST REGIONS NORTHEASTWARD, DUE TO MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND GULF OF MEXICO, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND ALSO FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER A PREDICTED
STORM TRACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO AN EXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK.

THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8
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01312019 CPC 610temp_new.gif
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srainhoutx
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NWS WPC‏Verified account @NWSWPC · 1h1 hour ago
Thirty years ago, Alaska was well into a long and significant cold wave with record high sea level pressures and temperatures below -60F (-51C) being recorded. From 1989.

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jasons2k
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It’s hard to believe that was 30 years ago. Seems like yesterday (if I’m getting the timing right, there were a few outbreaks that winter).

Anyway, we were living in Dallas - we had just moved to Texas from Savannah, Ga. - but we were visiting here in Houston for a family event. It was warm and muggy down here. Like May weather muggy. The front came through and the temp. instantly dropped like a rock. We woke-up to hearing they had up to 6” of snow up in Dallas. I remember headed home, driving (technically riding - Dad was driving) on the North Loop and the car thermometer read a chilly 28 degrees. We started seeing snow flurries in Conroe. Nothing much was on the ground until we got into Dallas County and as soon as we hit the I-20 interchage - boom - like a light switch there was snow piled everywhere and traffic slowed to a crawl. About two hours later, we made it home to Plano.

I’ll never forget the images on the TV news of giant sheets of ice falling off the tops of buildings in downtown Dallas. There was some dramatic footage of a car getting smashed up by the falling ice and the reporter saying something like “imagine if that were a person instead of a car.”

Since there were a few events in that timeframe so I’m not positive which was which, but I belleve during that outbreak, one day we had a high of only 14 at the house. We had another ice event a few weeks later. I think we even had another one in March too. It just kept coming in waves. For a kid who just moved to North Texas from warmer locales, it was quite exciting.
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Models once again back off of any big arctic front for next week which makes perfect sense to me. That's been the model pattern for the entire winter season. Next week will just be another good seasonal front.
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jasons2k
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On another note, it’s pouring rain here under a 20% chance of rain...
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