FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

redneckweather wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:45 pm We will have a couple sharp cold fronts after the first week in February and that will be it (nothing out of the ordinary and no winter precip...Fort Worth might get a little). Soon after Valentine's Day, strong signs of Spring will start to appear right on cue. The pattern since winter started has not changed as models have showed the arctic coming....always 2 plus weeks out only to lose it. Here we are again with models showing the cold....2 weeks out. lol This will not change through February. We have 4 weeks left, that's it. Sure, we might have a couple half decent fronts in March but nothing has ever happened down here in March. I would absolutely love to eat crow but....4 SHORT WEEKS LEFT.
We had a ice storm that shut down the city in March of 2014. Schools were out and flyovers were caked.

I remember well. I drove from conroe to the Beltway and back in it.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.
Team #NeverSummer
cperk
Posts: 768
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

BlueJay wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:55 am
cperk wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:04 am
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.
Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins. :D
No we won't, cperk. We just like warmer temperatures. ;)

And you will get plenty of warm weather in July. ;)
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:06 pm https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.
I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

I remember it, there were even some power outages in the Katy area due to small limbs falling, what stopped the storm from being a major event was that temps were borderline hovering around 32-33F with heavy rain.If temps were a couple degrees colder the March 2014 storm would have rivaled the major ice storm of 1997, some parts of Southeast Texas saw up to an inch of ice accumulation from that event.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

redneckweather wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:06 pm https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.
I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.
Any winter weather is rare but that winter we had 7 separate ice events. Hell, this last decade has been one of the best decades ever for Winter events in SE Texas.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Trends the last 24 hours and again overnight suggest a cold front arrives next Wednesday/Thursday ending the warm weather that we will experience this weekend into early next week.

An active highly progressive pattern develops as several storm systems crash into the west Coast and spread inland. It appears there are at least 3 storms that will impact the West Coast and California spreading heavy lower elevation rainfall and higher elevation snow inland over the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances ride across Texas and a Coastal trough/low organizes Friday bringing at least a chance of rainfall beginning Thursday night and continuing into Saturday. Rainfall amounts do not look that heavy, but will need to monitor trends for Saturday as that may be the best chance of any meaningful rainfall.

Next week, very cold air that will be building across our source Region of Western Canada looks to begin dropping South of the Canadian Border. Virtually all the Global guidance is in agreement lending to some confidence of a rather strong Canadian Front arriving next Wednesday/Thursday. The fly in the ointment is a vigorous storm system heading our way from the Eastern Pacific. That strong wet storm system embedded in the sub tropical jet could present p type issues across Texas if the cold front arrives 12 to 24 hours ahead of the deep tropical moisture that is depicted in some of the model schemes. Don't get too caught up in the precipitation maps via the models right now. 7+ Days out, it's best to focus on the ensembles and their respective upper air pattern as the days role forward.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
sau27
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:04 am
Location: Bellaire
Contact:

One thing that has always plauged me is identifying these coastal troughs on the models. Other than precip I am having a hard time picking out wind or pressure signals. Does anyone have some insight on how best to spot these?
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

redneckweather wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.
It was about a month and a couple weeks before my wife and I got married. We were getting married at my parents land in Cat Spring an hour west of Houston. They lost so many trees and tree limbs from that storm that we spent the next month every weekend going out and picking it all up and transporting it to the burn pile so the place would be as beautiful as we had imagined. It looked like a twister had gone through.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Wxman57 on s2k talking about his "Canadian Wall" may fail in the coming weeks. Hints in the long range building cold air in western Canada may drop south in the coming weeks. Models have been rough though lately so it is a big grain of salt...
Post Reply
  • Information