000
FXUS64 KHGX 121801
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1201 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
.DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds
will be from the north at 10-15 kts with gusts up to around 25
kts today decreasing late this afternoon as high pressure
continues to move eastward and away from the CWA. Winds will
become more easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Skies are thinning out across Southeast Texas this morning, and all
rains have moved off the coast. Made just some minor grid updates
to match up with current trends. 42
FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 122045
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
245 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clear across most of Southeast Texas early this afternoon
with just some high clouds lingering mainly across the coastal counties
area. With surface high pressure building into the area from the west
and northwest, occasionally gusty north to northwest winds will be
weakening as the afternoon progresses. Overnight, the combination of
light winds, mostly clear skies and the surface high overhead will
allow for temperatures to cool down into the mid to upper 30s inland
and into the mid to upper 40s coast. An onshore flow will return to
the area tomorrow as the surface high moves quickly off to the east,
and these south to occasionally southwest winds will bring gradually
warming temperatures back to the area through the end of the week
and the start of the weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye on possible
sea fog development once again, maybe beginning as early as late
Thursday night or early Friday morning. Cooler temperatures and the
end of any fog threat can be expected after the passage of the next
cold front Saturday night through early Sunday morning. As temperatures
remain on the cool side heading into the first half of next week,
look for increasing rain chances as possible coastal trough or
coastal low development takes place while mid/upper level disturbances
move across the area in a deepening southwest flow aloft. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to strong north to north northwest winds will prevail this
afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved across the waters
earlier today in the wake of a cold front. Winds will decrease
overnight as high pressure over central TX moves eastward. Winds
will become easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
night as the high pressure continues to move eastward and away from
the local area. The onshore flow will begin to return moisture to
the area and patchy fog could return on Friday with an increasing
threat for fog Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to move
across the region late Saturday through Sunday morning and SCEC/SCA
conditions can be expected post front. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds
will continue from the north at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to
around 25 kts decreasing late this afternoon as high pressure builds
over central TX and then moves eastward into the region. Winds will
become more easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 64 50 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 66 52 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 61 56 69 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 122045
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
245 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clear across most of Southeast Texas early this afternoon
with just some high clouds lingering mainly across the coastal counties
area. With surface high pressure building into the area from the west
and northwest, occasionally gusty north to northwest winds will be
weakening as the afternoon progresses. Overnight, the combination of
light winds, mostly clear skies and the surface high overhead will
allow for temperatures to cool down into the mid to upper 30s inland
and into the mid to upper 40s coast. An onshore flow will return to
the area tomorrow as the surface high moves quickly off to the east,
and these south to occasionally southwest winds will bring gradually
warming temperatures back to the area through the end of the week
and the start of the weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye on possible
sea fog development once again, maybe beginning as early as late
Thursday night or early Friday morning. Cooler temperatures and the
end of any fog threat can be expected after the passage of the next
cold front Saturday night through early Sunday morning. As temperatures
remain on the cool side heading into the first half of next week,
look for increasing rain chances as possible coastal trough or
coastal low development takes place while mid/upper level disturbances
move across the area in a deepening southwest flow aloft. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to strong north to north northwest winds will prevail this
afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved across the waters
earlier today in the wake of a cold front. Winds will decrease
overnight as high pressure over central TX moves eastward. Winds
will become easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
night as the high pressure continues to move eastward and away from
the local area. The onshore flow will begin to return moisture to
the area and patchy fog could return on Friday with an increasing
threat for fog Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to move
across the region late Saturday through Sunday morning and SCEC/SCA
conditions can be expected post front. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds
will continue from the north at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to
around 25 kts decreasing late this afternoon as high pressure builds
over central TX and then moves eastward into the region. Winds will
become more easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 64 50 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 66 52 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 61 56 69 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Yeah I know its 10 days out...but what?
- Attachments
-
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Forecast low last night was 39, actual low was 36. Looking forward to nice weather the next several days.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 131611
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1011 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019
.UPDATE...
Ridging at all levels this morning with easterly surface flow
veering onshore. This subsidence will translate to mostly sunny
afternoon skies as temperatures warm up a few degrees upon
yesterday`s maximums; average interior middle 60s/coastal lower
60s. As the surface high planted over us shifts eastward through
tomorrow, a more established onshore flow will begin the Gulf
moisture pump and increase daytime (minimum) humidities from the
%30s/40s today into the much more humid %60s/70s by Friday and
Saturday. Thus, a nice post-frontal type day with become more
east Texas-like in the next 48 to 72...thickening clouds, more
humidity and unseasonable warmth will return in our near future.
The next real chance for rain will be early next week. 31
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 131611
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1011 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019
.UPDATE...
Ridging at all levels this morning with easterly surface flow
veering onshore. This subsidence will translate to mostly sunny
afternoon skies as temperatures warm up a few degrees upon
yesterday`s maximums; average interior middle 60s/coastal lower
60s. As the surface high planted over us shifts eastward through
tomorrow, a more established onshore flow will begin the Gulf
moisture pump and increase daytime (minimum) humidities from the
%30s/40s today into the much more humid %60s/70s by Friday and
Saturday. Thus, a nice post-frontal type day with become more
east Texas-like in the next 48 to 72...thickening clouds, more
humidity and unseasonable warmth will return in our near future.
The next real chance for rain will be early next week. 31
&&
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Tomorrow...the anniversary of the big one...
Back on Christmas Eve in 2004, much of South Texas was blanketed in white, as a perfect setup to create a miraculous White Christmas occurred. Galveston received four inches of snow, Angleton six inches, Friendswood three inches, and Bay City 8-10 inches. While the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle stands almost on its own for modern Southeast Texas snowstorms, the great Valentine’s Day snow of 1895 stands alone as Southeast Texas’s and the Gulf Coast’s greatest snowstorm of all-time. The following interactive map shows snow totals from this remarkable event, which affected a swath from Texas to Maryland.
https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sn ... galveston/
Back on Christmas Eve in 2004, much of South Texas was blanketed in white, as a perfect setup to create a miraculous White Christmas occurred. Galveston received four inches of snow, Angleton six inches, Friendswood three inches, and Bay City 8-10 inches. While the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle stands almost on its own for modern Southeast Texas snowstorms, the great Valentine’s Day snow of 1895 stands alone as Southeast Texas’s and the Gulf Coast’s greatest snowstorm of all-time. The following interactive map shows snow totals from this remarkable event, which affected a swath from Texas to Maryland.
https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sn ... galveston/
-
Thundersleet
- Posts: 67
- Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:26 am
- Contact:
There were a few model pictures which showed what the weather might be or might be like in SE Texas I believe it was either this weekend or sometime next week?
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Happy Valentine’s Day
Today marks the 124th year anniversary of the great 1895 Houston-Galveston Valentine snowstorm that dump 20” of snow in Houston.
No snow today with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 70s across SE TX.
Today marks the 124th year anniversary of the great 1895 Houston-Galveston Valentine snowstorm that dump 20” of snow in Houston.
No snow today with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 70s across SE TX.
- Attachments
-
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
788
FXUS64 KHGX 141332
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
732 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated grids for increased cloud cover/stronger Gulf winds and
higher seas.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Quick update for the thin stratus deck spreading across the
southern portions of the area...MVFR conditions expected to be
intermittent through 16z then scattering out.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Stronger onshore flow over the warm waters so have upped the SCEC
to an SCA through 10 am...winds offshore should diminish late this
morning back down into the 10-15 knot range and seas subside as
well.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Despite the influx of high clouds from the NW, dry mild weather
is expected to prevail today. Increased S/SW winds will help to
warm temps the next few days...but low-level moisture will be a
bit slower in its return (as the warmer/drier mid level air mix-
es down to the surface). High temperatures the next few days to
range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s (depending on clouds)
with lows in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Rain
chances will remain low/nil until latter parts of the weekend.
The extended forecast models are keeping things interesting for
the weekend with the cold front that was originally progged for
Sat night/early Sun morning is now expected to stall over SE TX
Sun/Mon. Current runs have the boundary waffling along/near the
coast...acting as a focus for showers (perhaps isolated thunder-
storms). Clouds/increased POPs/cooler air filtering in from the
N/NW will make for some cool/damp/gray conditions for the start
of the week. This unsettled pattern may persist through Tues as
the boundary lingers over the nearshore waters...but we are now
seeing the possible development of a coastal low which could be
focus of more precipitation (depending on its track and whether
or not it does form). All of this is then forecast to sweep out
to the E/SE on Weds with another surge of cold air in its wake.
Will be interesting to see how this continues to resolve itself
going forward. 41
MARINE...
Winds at buoy 42019 supporting a SCEC for a little longer (til 8 am
possibly ending sooner) and seas there have built to 5 feet. South
to south-southwest winds should continue today and then relax
tonight as s/w passes by to the northeast. Moisture return will be a
concern as dewpoints continue to increase and have some sea fog
moving into the nearshore/bays Saturday. Models starting to vary
widely on how far the next cold front intrudes into SETX/Coast
Saturday. Trend was for it to stall well inland and now latest runs
bringing the front closer to the coast Saturday morning 6-10am
(possibly even just off the coast) before pulling it slowly back
north. This may enhance the fog threat Saturday afternoon with
dewpoints in the mid 60s flowing slowly back north over the cool
shelf waters leading to a longer residence time with increasing
moisture aloft up through 950mb. Set up for sea fog looking greater.
Broad upper trough over Stronger upper trough swings through the the
Western U.S. and southwesterly flow aloft should hang the front up
Sunday as it pushes off the coast and probably stalls over the
coastal waters or just barely beyond the coastal waters. Winds in
the wake of the front look to support SCA conditions.
45
AVIATION...
VFR with cirrus this morning. Moisture increasing and could have
some brief MVFR conditions with trapped moisture around 2500-3000ft
near CLL this afternoon. MVFR ceilings possible mainly areawide
Friday after 15z. Gusty winds on tap today in southwesterly low
level flow. Sustained winds of 14-19kts with gusts of 20-28kts a
very high likelihood for the CLL/UTS terminals...slightly lighter
closer to the coast.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 58 79 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 60 78 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 62 70 62 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
FXUS64 KHGX 141332
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
732 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated grids for increased cloud cover/stronger Gulf winds and
higher seas.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Quick update for the thin stratus deck spreading across the
southern portions of the area...MVFR conditions expected to be
intermittent through 16z then scattering out.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Stronger onshore flow over the warm waters so have upped the SCEC
to an SCA through 10 am...winds offshore should diminish late this
morning back down into the 10-15 knot range and seas subside as
well.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019/
DISCUSSION...
Despite the influx of high clouds from the NW, dry mild weather
is expected to prevail today. Increased S/SW winds will help to
warm temps the next few days...but low-level moisture will be a
bit slower in its return (as the warmer/drier mid level air mix-
es down to the surface). High temperatures the next few days to
range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s (depending on clouds)
with lows in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Rain
chances will remain low/nil until latter parts of the weekend.
The extended forecast models are keeping things interesting for
the weekend with the cold front that was originally progged for
Sat night/early Sun morning is now expected to stall over SE TX
Sun/Mon. Current runs have the boundary waffling along/near the
coast...acting as a focus for showers (perhaps isolated thunder-
storms). Clouds/increased POPs/cooler air filtering in from the
N/NW will make for some cool/damp/gray conditions for the start
of the week. This unsettled pattern may persist through Tues as
the boundary lingers over the nearshore waters...but we are now
seeing the possible development of a coastal low which could be
focus of more precipitation (depending on its track and whether
or not it does form). All of this is then forecast to sweep out
to the E/SE on Weds with another surge of cold air in its wake.
Will be interesting to see how this continues to resolve itself
going forward. 41
MARINE...
Winds at buoy 42019 supporting a SCEC for a little longer (til 8 am
possibly ending sooner) and seas there have built to 5 feet. South
to south-southwest winds should continue today and then relax
tonight as s/w passes by to the northeast. Moisture return will be a
concern as dewpoints continue to increase and have some sea fog
moving into the nearshore/bays Saturday. Models starting to vary
widely on how far the next cold front intrudes into SETX/Coast
Saturday. Trend was for it to stall well inland and now latest runs
bringing the front closer to the coast Saturday morning 6-10am
(possibly even just off the coast) before pulling it slowly back
north. This may enhance the fog threat Saturday afternoon with
dewpoints in the mid 60s flowing slowly back north over the cool
shelf waters leading to a longer residence time with increasing
moisture aloft up through 950mb. Set up for sea fog looking greater.
Broad upper trough over Stronger upper trough swings through the the
Western U.S. and southwesterly flow aloft should hang the front up
Sunday as it pushes off the coast and probably stalls over the
coastal waters or just barely beyond the coastal waters. Winds in
the wake of the front look to support SCA conditions.
45
AVIATION...
VFR with cirrus this morning. Moisture increasing and could have
some brief MVFR conditions with trapped moisture around 2500-3000ft
near CLL this afternoon. MVFR ceilings possible mainly areawide
Friday after 15z. Gusty winds on tap today in southwesterly low
level flow. Sustained winds of 14-19kts with gusts of 20-28kts a
very high likelihood for the CLL/UTS terminals...slightly lighter
closer to the coast.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 58 79 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 60 78 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 62 70 62 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.
Models and forecasts seem to be getting worse instead of better imo.sau27 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:07 am Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141738
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019
.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings persist across SE TX. The clouds are
thin and would expect strong mixing to allow VFR conditions to
prevail this afternoon into this evening. A tight pressure
gradient will also foster strong and gusty S-SW winds across area
TAF sites into this evening. The winds will relax this evening but
not fully decouple. A wide variety of model solutions for tonight
but there is a general consensus that MVFR ceilings will
develop after 06z with a transition to IFR ceilings after 10z.
SREF fog products show high probabilities of fog over the W-SW TAF
sites tonight. Not sure this will occur as winds don`t fully
decouple. MVFR ceilings on Friday will mix out with scattered
clouds developing after 18z. 43
FXUS64 KHGX 141738
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019
.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings persist across SE TX. The clouds are
thin and would expect strong mixing to allow VFR conditions to
prevail this afternoon into this evening. A tight pressure
gradient will also foster strong and gusty S-SW winds across area
TAF sites into this evening. The winds will relax this evening but
not fully decouple. A wide variety of model solutions for tonight
but there is a general consensus that MVFR ceilings will
develop after 06z with a transition to IFR ceilings after 10z.
SREF fog products show high probabilities of fog over the W-SW TAF
sites tonight. Not sure this will occur as winds don`t fully
decouple. MVFR ceilings on Friday will mix out with scattered
clouds developing after 18z. 43
Capital Weather Gang/Jason Samenow wrote a column on that yesterday: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... 42cb790867Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:52 amModels and forecasts seem to be getting worse instead of better imo.sau27 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:07 am Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.
The Weather Service prepares to launch prediction model that many forecasters don’t trust
Dr Shepherd has a kinder view: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... b0d9c36c2b
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.
Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.
Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...
Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.
Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:23 am Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.
Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.
Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...
If the Europeans can get it right (or at least somewhat right) I don’t understand why us Americans can’t.sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:28 amI am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:23 am Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.
Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.
Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...
The weather today was absolutely gorgeous!! Convertible weather!
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:59 amIf the Europeans can get it right (or at least somewhat right) I don’t understand why us Americans can’t.sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:28 amI am hopeful they will iron out the kinks. I'm sure the mets at NCEP and NWS have noticed the same issues many others have. Personally I have not been a fan of the FV3 to this point, however I will gladly take back my concern on here if it becomes a solid performer as I am sure we all hope it does.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:23 am Clouds and rain chances increase this weekend as a series of Pacific storms and an active sub tropical jet combined with a possible Coastal trough develop. A Pacific front looks to near the Coastal tier of Counties this evening before heading N tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday evening.
Next week looks damp, dreary and cool with temperature struggling to reach 60F for highs and 40's for lows. I enjoyed the sunshine this week. Unfortunately it may be a while before it returns.
Regarding the new FV3-GFS. Elements of the current GFS and the new GFS will be combined during the testing period. The rush to judge any upgrade seems petty and laughable to me. Perhaps it grabs headlines and gets clicks on social media, but often times the dismissive attitude of those that choose to trash the upgrades are proven wrong. I bet we will not see any retractions or positive news grabbing headlines if the intended improvements in the guidance come to fruition...
A lot of it has to do with funding. If the NWS charged as much as the ECMWF does for their products you would have more than enough to support it. At the end of the day though I feel like both models have improved rather dramatically over the last 10 years and will continue to do so as technology advances.
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Pea soup outside this morning. Bring on that front to blow this mess out of here. I got flower beds to weed and mulch.
Started out warm and muggy this morning. Had a few sprinkles on the windshield. Temps feel pretty darn good right now though.