FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Yes. Need to dry out. Opening Day for little league is this weekend.
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tireman4
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612
FXUS64 KHGX 110934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Weak shortwave energy is moving across the region producing
iso/sct packets of -ra and even a lone tstm across far north
Houston Co. Elsewhere, fog is the primary issue this morning &
will monitor trends in case the dense fog advsy might need to be
expanded a bit further inland in the next couple hours.

The warm front is still situated from roughly Palacios to
Crockett early this morning. It should make some northward
progress today but slow enough whereas there will be some 5-10
degree differences in highs today across parts of the area.
Combination of weak impulses aloft and waa will continue to
produce sct shra throughout the day. Sea fog will eventually
retreat from the bays, but likely move right back in during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper trough will swing thru the Plains today and swing a surface
pre-frontal trough thru later this evening followed by the front
itself late tonight. Well probably see a thin bkn band of shra and
embedded tsra develop along the prefrontal trough (and possibly
another along the front if there`s enough moisture leftover to
work with). Overall instability isn`t impressive and wouldn`t
expect much of a threat of svr tstms. May see a stronger cell or
two in the ne parts, from say Conroe-Crockett, which are a bit
closer to the rrq of the upper jet exiting ne Tx.

Tue & Wed look to be fairly nice with some periods of sunshine in
between plumes of Pacific cirrus streaming overhead. Surface high
pressure moves east on Wed. The next front should push through on
Friday. This frontal passage should be mostly dry as it looks to
be moisture starved and capped. The weekend should be mainly dry
as well...just a gradual transition period until the next system
arrives Monday-ish. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Will be keeping the Marine Dense Fog Advisory in place over the bays
and nearshore waters until just after mid morning, but could be ext-
ended until noon (per some of the short-range models). Otherwise not
too many changes with the overall forecast of a mostly light onshore
flow today/tonight along with return of sea fog late this afternoon/
early this evening. The cold front is still on track to move off the
coast early Tue morning with scattered showers and isolated thunder-
storms along/ahead of it. Brief SCEC/SCA flags will be possible late
Tue morning through the afternoon. High pressure will be building in
to the region quickly Tue night with winds decreasing. East winds by
Weds are then progged to shift to the SE Weds night as the next cold
front/storm system begins to move down off the Northern Plains. This
next front is forecast to move into the Gulf waters late Fri or so.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
Another messy start to the day as bands of weak showers contend with
the patchy dense fog already in place. These LIFR CIGS/VIS should be
improving by mid morning (expect along the coast) as the slightly el-
evated winds (20-30kts) just above the surface start to mix down. We
should continue to see these bands of showers move across throughout
the day given the persistent SW fetch aloft with MVFR CIGS remaining
in place. This next cold front is progged to move across the CWA at/
just after midnight tonight, with showers and isolated thunderstorms
likely accompanying it. However, ahead of the front, patchy fog will
be possible as VIS/CIGS fall once again. Conditions should be impro-
ving from the north to south by mid Tues morning. 41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 49 62 37 65 / 50 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 54 65 40 66 / 50 60 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 56 64 50 62 / 20 60 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Galveston...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$
mcheer23
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Well 12z GFS certainly had too much coffee this morning.
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:31 am Well 12z GFS certainly had too much coffee this morning.
This run drives the cold air further south....
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 111607
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1007 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Extended the Dense Fog Advisory until Noon for some of our far west
and northwest counties and along the barrier islands where some
visibilities remain at or below 1/4 mile. Boundary remains in/around
the inland advisory area where temperatures are still in the mid 50s.
Elsewhere, seeing 10 AM temperatures ranging from the low to mid 60s
north to around 70 in the Houston area. Rain chances will remain in
the forecast for the rest of the morning and on through the afternoon
hours.

Cold front is still on schedule to move through the area tonight,
and it will bring an end to our area`s rain fog. 42
&&
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CRASHWX
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07184A9E-D95E-456C-9E78-4EF3D38F7CFB.png
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C178061F-6E5D-4CA2-B2CB-7CB9F4E3D25D.png
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GFS AND TEMPS PLUS FV3 STARTING TO HINT AS WELL
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 112008
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
208 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
There will continue to be rain chances in the forecast for the rest
of the day and overnight ahead of a cold front moves across the area
before sunrise. Cannot rule out more fog development (especially near
the coast/Bays/Gulf waters, some of which could become dense) before
the front moves on through. A couple of cool nights and mild days can
be expected behind the front as high pressure builds into the area.
As the high moves off to the east on Wednesday, look for an increase
in moisture levels and humidities to begin once again as winds come
back around to the southeast and south. Temperatures warm up once
again on Thursday as the onshore winds strengthen in response to
pressure falls in the TX/OK panhandle area, and currently anticipate
little to no rain development in advance/associated with the next
cold front scheduled to move through Southeast Texas on Friday.
Temperatures cool back down over the weekend as high pressure ridges
into the area from the north and northwest. Coastal trough development
looks possible at the end of the weekend and on into early next week
which would help to bring increasing clouds and rain chances as
temperatures remain on the cool/cold side. 42
&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Sea fog is
expected to re-develop this evening through early morning Tuesday
particularly across the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Fog will
decrease visibilites to below 1 nautical mile, thus, the marine
dense fog advisory will likely be extended through early Tuesday
morning for the nearshore waters as well as expanded to include the
bays. A cold front will push into the coastline by early Tuesday
morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along/ahead of it. Fog is expected to dissipate after the cold front
moves across. Moderate to strong winds and elevated seas expected in
the wake of the frontal passage, therefore, SCEC and SCA flags will
likely be in effect for the Gulf waters Tuesday morning through
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Onshore flow is forecast to return
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model guidance shows another cold front
moving into the coastal waters Friday and could result in another
surge of winds along with elevated seas. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 62 37 65 52 / 30 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 54 65 40 66 54 / 60 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 64 50 62 58 / 60 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

&&

$$
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Katdaddy
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Hearing some thunder tonight with a narrow line of thunderstorms.
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Katdaddy
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Finally the sun will return today! Light rain and showers will move off the coast this morning with clearing skies. Lots of sun through the rest of week and high temps in the 60s today and Wednesday that will rise into the 70s by then end of week and into the weekend.
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mcheer23
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Should dry out and warm up to around 80 by the weekend before the clouds come back and the temps tumble again early next week.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121801
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1201 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds
will be from the north at 10-15 kts with gusts up to around 25
kts today decreasing late this afternoon as high pressure
continues to move eastward and away from the CWA. Winds will
become more easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Skies are thinning out across Southeast Texas this morning, and all
rains have moved off the coast. Made just some minor grid updates
to match up with current trends. 42
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 122045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
245 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clear across most of Southeast Texas early this afternoon
with just some high clouds lingering mainly across the coastal counties
area. With surface high pressure building into the area from the west
and northwest, occasionally gusty north to northwest winds will be
weakening as the afternoon progresses. Overnight, the combination of
light winds, mostly clear skies and the surface high overhead will
allow for temperatures to cool down into the mid to upper 30s inland
and into the mid to upper 40s coast. An onshore flow will return to
the area tomorrow as the surface high moves quickly off to the east,
and these south to occasionally southwest winds will bring gradually
warming temperatures back to the area through the end of the week
and the start of the weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye on possible
sea fog development once again, maybe beginning as early as late
Thursday night or early Friday morning. Cooler temperatures and the
end of any fog threat can be expected after the passage of the next
cold front Saturday night through early Sunday morning. As temperatures
remain on the cool side heading into the first half of next week,
look for increasing rain chances as possible coastal trough or
coastal low development takes place while mid/upper level disturbances
move across the area in a deepening southwest flow aloft. 42
&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong north to north northwest winds will prevail this
afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved across the waters
earlier today in the wake of a cold front. Winds will decrease
overnight as high pressure over central TX moves eastward. Winds
will become easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
night as the high pressure continues to move eastward and away from
the local area. The onshore flow will begin to return moisture to
the area and patchy fog could return on Friday with an increasing
threat for fog Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to move
across the region late Saturday through Sunday morning and SCEC/SCA
conditions can be expected post front. 24

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds
will continue from the north at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to
around 25 kts decreasing late this afternoon as high pressure builds
over central TX and then moves eastward into the region. Winds will
become more easterly Wednesday morning and southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 64 50 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 66 52 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 61 56 69 61 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Texaspirate11
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Yeah I know its 10 days out...but what?
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jasons2k
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Forecast low last night was 39, actual low was 36. Looking forward to nice weather the next several days.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131611
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1011 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Ridging at all levels this morning with easterly surface flow
veering onshore. This subsidence will translate to mostly sunny
afternoon skies as temperatures warm up a few degrees upon
yesterday`s maximums; average interior middle 60s/coastal lower
60s. As the surface high planted over us shifts eastward through
tomorrow, a more established onshore flow will begin the Gulf
moisture pump and increase daytime (minimum) humidities from the
%30s/40s today into the much more humid %60s/70s by Friday and
Saturday. Thus, a nice post-frontal type day with become more
east Texas-like in the next 48 to 72...thickening clouds, more
humidity and unseasonable warmth will return in our near future.
The next real chance for rain will be early next week. 31

&&
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tireman4
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Tomorrow...the anniversary of the big one...:)

Back on Christmas Eve in 2004, much of South Texas was blanketed in white, as a perfect setup to create a miraculous White Christmas occurred. Galveston received four inches of snow, Angleton six inches, Friendswood three inches, and Bay City 8-10 inches. While the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle stands almost on its own for modern Southeast Texas snowstorms, the great Valentine’s Day snow of 1895 stands alone as Southeast Texas’s and the Gulf Coast’s greatest snowstorm of all-time. The following interactive map shows snow totals from this remarkable event, which affected a swath from Texas to Maryland.


https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sn ... galveston/
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There were a few model pictures which showed what the weather might be or might be like in SE Texas I believe it was either this weekend or sometime next week?
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Katdaddy
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Happy Valentine’s Day

Today marks the 124th year anniversary of the great 1895 Houston-Galveston Valentine snowstorm that dump 20” of snow in Houston.

No snow today with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 70s across SE TX.
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tireman4
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788
FXUS64 KHGX 141332
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
732 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated grids for increased cloud cover/stronger Gulf winds and
higher seas.

45
&&
.AVIATION...
Quick update for the thin stratus deck spreading across the
southern portions of the area...MVFR conditions expected to be
intermittent through 16z then scattering out.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Stronger onshore flow over the warm waters so have upped the SCEC
to an SCA through 10 am...winds offshore should diminish late this
morning back down into the 10-15 knot range and seas subside as
well.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Despite the influx of high clouds from the NW, dry mild weather
is expected to prevail today. Increased S/SW winds will help to
warm temps the next few days...but low-level moisture will be a
bit slower in its return (as the warmer/drier mid level air mix-
es down to the surface). High temperatures the next few days to
range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s (depending on clouds)
with lows in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Rain
chances will remain low/nil until latter parts of the weekend.

The extended forecast models are keeping things interesting for
the weekend with the cold front that was originally progged for
Sat night/early Sun morning is now expected to stall over SE TX
Sun/Mon. Current runs have the boundary waffling along/near the
coast...acting as a focus for showers (perhaps isolated thunder-
storms). Clouds/increased POPs/cooler air filtering in from the
N/NW will make for some cool/damp/gray conditions for the start
of the week. This unsettled pattern may persist through Tues as
the boundary lingers over the nearshore waters...but we are now
seeing the possible development of a coastal low which could be
focus of more precipitation (depending on its track and whether
or not it does form). All of this is then forecast to sweep out
to the E/SE on Weds with another surge of cold air in its wake.
Will be interesting to see how this continues to resolve itself
going forward. 41

MARINE...
Winds at buoy 42019 supporting a SCEC for a little longer (til 8 am
possibly ending sooner) and seas there have built to 5 feet. South
to south-southwest winds should continue today and then relax
tonight as s/w passes by to the northeast. Moisture return will be a
concern as dewpoints continue to increase and have some sea fog
moving into the nearshore/bays Saturday. Models starting to vary
widely on how far the next cold front intrudes into SETX/Coast
Saturday. Trend was for it to stall well inland and now latest runs
bringing the front closer to the coast Saturday morning 6-10am
(possibly even just off the coast) before pulling it slowly back
north. This may enhance the fog threat Saturday afternoon with
dewpoints in the mid 60s flowing slowly back north over the cool
shelf waters leading to a longer residence time with increasing
moisture aloft up through 950mb. Set up for sea fog looking greater.
Broad upper trough over Stronger upper trough swings through the the
Western U.S. and southwesterly flow aloft should hang the front up
Sunday as it pushes off the coast and probably stalls over the
coastal waters or just barely beyond the coastal waters. Winds in
the wake of the front look to support SCA conditions.
45

AVIATION...
VFR with cirrus this morning. Moisture increasing and could have
some brief MVFR conditions with trapped moisture around 2500-3000ft
near CLL this afternoon. MVFR ceilings possible mainly areawide
Friday after 15z. Gusty winds on tap today in southwesterly low
level flow. Sustained winds of 14-19kts with gusts of 20-28kts a
very high likelihood for the CLL/UTS terminals...slightly lighter
closer to the coast.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 58 79 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 60 78 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 62 70 62 67 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
sau27
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Saw yesterday that the NWS is planning to make the FV3 - GFS operational March 20th. I have seen many many people are concerned given the wild swings this mode has shown in its solutions. Hoping they can get things straightened out before its official roll out but if not I worry our modeling is going to fall even further behind.
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