FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

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jasons2k
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Belmer wrote: Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:20 pm I think the key word in Steve's post was 'potential' though chances are fairly low.

Yep. The threat was also mentioned in Jeff’s email this morning.

Chilly game at the fields tonight. Late game, too.
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A wet weather pattern will be in place for the next several days.

A coastal surface low has formed over the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and has really tightened the pressure gradient over the region. Winds at 600am were gusting to 28mph at IAH and nearly 30mph along the coast out of the E and NE. Radar shows an expansion of the showers and drizzle over the region with a few thunderstorms especially up north and east of Houston where NLDN has shown a few strikes this morning.

Warm front is advancing toward the coast with good lifting of the air mass over SE TX as a warm southerly flow aloft overruns the cool NE winds at the surface. Moisture levels have greatly increased overnight with Lake Charles PWS rising from .85 of an inch into the 1.0 inch range and a reservoir of 1.5 inches is shown just off the coast moving northward. Radar is much more convective looking than expected, but coverage is also not as widespread as expected thus far. Will focus the heaviest rains today NE of Houston where good 850mb frontal lift is most likely and taper amounts lower toward the SW around Matagorda Bay. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible around Lake Livingston with .50 to 1 inch around Houston and then .25 of an inch around Matagorda Bay. Warm front may get close to the coast this afternoon, but think it will remain just offshore and keep the entire region in the cool sector (lower 50’s).

Surface low will move NE of the area tonight allowing a slightly drier air mass to filter in, but enough to reduce rain chances and maybe even have a little sun on Wednesday. Next short wave in the active sub-tropical flow approaches the area starting Wednesday night with the old Gulf cold front stalling offshore and another surface low forming along the boundary. Entire process of today will repeat on Thursday into Friday with a coastal low moving NE along the coast, but this time a warm front looks to swing further inland. Will bring rain chances back on Thursday and maintain into Friday and Saturday although Friday if the warm sector can move decently inland may end up more cloudy and humid than actually wet.

Next short wave approaches on Saturday and this one looks fairly strong. Decent shear and instability may be able to develop over SE TX with a more well defined arm sector air mass in place Friday and Saturday. Parameters are marginal, but pointing toward some strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening with the passage of our next cold front. This system should be strong enough to send the post frontal air mass well out into the Gulf of Mexico and allow at least a day of dry weather on Sunday.

Active sub-tropical flow out of the Pacific refuses to abate and the next short wave loads into the SW US and ejects toward TX early next week with the entire pattern repeating with a coastal surface low forming along the coast spreading rain inland over a cool surface air mass. In fact the latest guidance progs keep a fairly active and wet pattern in place through the end of the month.


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tireman4
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Interesting factoid
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Cpv17
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I thought it was supposed to be raining this morning lol
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
542 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.AVIATION...
Low pressure and an associated warm front will approach SE TX
today. Ceilings are expected to lower in advance of the warm
front. MVFR cigs will transition to IFR between 16-18z and could
fall to LIFR by 21z. Bands of precipitation are expected to move
into the area from the south through 20z and then slowly diminish.
Best dynamics are over the northern TAF sites and a few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. Once the surface low move north of
the region, it`ll drag a cod front across the area between 08-12z.
Cigs/vsby will improve in the wake of the front. Prior to the
improvement, patchy fog and drizzle will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continued to pool into the region and resulted
in overcast skies as well as passing showers mainly across the
Gulf waters into the southern portions of the forecast area
overnight and early this morning. Tight local pressure gradient
resulted in a moderate to strong wind flow, particularly over the
coastal regions and coastal waters. Winds generally from the east
at 5 to 15 MPH inland and at 25 to 30 MPH with higher gusts
across the Gulf waters were observed overnight and early this
morning.

Surface low located over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue
to move north northeast today. Ahead of the low, an associated
warm front will provide sufficient lifting for additional shower
development across the region. Model consensus shows the core of
the low entering the Gulf waters around late morning/early
afternoon. Increase in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
can be expected during the late morning hours and continues
through the night as an upper level trough approaches and moves
across the local area. As stated in the previous forecast package,
model guidance shows the right entrance region of the upper level
jet moving closer to the SE Texas region later today as well as
an increase in the low level jet, which in combination with the
southerly moist air mass, favorable 500mb vorticity as well as
divergence aloft, supports the development of scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region
today. PWAT values for today range from 1.50 to around 1.80
inches.

The surface low should exit near the southeastern portions of the
CWA this evening/tonight and the cold front associated to the
upper level trough should move across the local area Wednesday.
Shower activity is forecast to decrease Wednesday morning but
increases once again Wednesday night as low level moisture
increases over SE TX. With respect to the winds, velocities will
decrease today and a southerly wind flow will set in this
afternoon and evening. However, winds will once again increase and
become northerly overnight and early Wednesday morning.

During the rest of the forecast period, a wet weather pattern is
expected to continue as several surface coastal lows and upper
level troughs move in and out of the region. Periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms are forecast throughout the long term
period with a few rests in between when drier air pools across
the local areas in the wake of the cold fronts. This will also
continue to result in fluctuating wind direction and speed during
the next couple of days. 24

MARINE...

A fairly complex/changing marine forecast this week with virtually
all kinds of hazards in play at some point. Low pressure off the
Mexican coast will move north today and should approach Galveston
Bay this evening. The pressure gradient will remain tight this
morning but will begin to weaken from south to north as the low
moves north. Will maintain the SCA for the Gulf waters through 18z
but replace the SCA over the bays with a SCEC. The low will bring a
warm front north and this feature will bring periods of light rain
to the coastal waters. The surface low will move into Arkansas
tonight and the low will drag a cold front across the coastal waters
late tonight. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow will
develop in the wake of the front as high pressure builds into the
southern plains. Another area of low pressure will develop off Deep
South Texas on Thursday and this feature will take a similar track
and approach SE TX by late afternoon. Warmer and more moist air will
flow over the cooler shelf waters and a brief period of sea fog will
be possible Fri/Sat. Another cold front on Sunday should clear the
fog with a moderate offshore flow.

Strong east winds this morning will boost tide levels and water
levels could briefly reach or exceed 3 feet early this morning.
since the impact will be very localized and the duration so
short, will forego a coastal flood advisory. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 48 41 62 43 57 / 90 40 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 56 48 63 49 59 / 90 50 20 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 65 53 63 57 64 / 90 60 40 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:02 am I thought it was supposed to be raining this morning lol
It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191656
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes planned for the grids for this afternoon as
conditions remain favorable for the development of widespread SHRA
(and isolated TSRA). Moderate to strong onshore winds (courtesy of
the coastal low over the Lower/Middle TX coast) will help keep the
moisture levels elevated over the area today/tonight. While we are
getting a bit of break from the stronger overnight activity at pre-
sent...radar is indicating increased coverage near/along the coast
with the last several scans. This activity is expected to eventual-
ly spread inland through the rest of the day. 41

&&
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

TXZ177-178-199-212-213-191745-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1118 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pinehurst, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Tomball, Willis, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Panorama Village,
Magnolia, New Waverly, Montgomery, Stagecoach, Huntsville State Park
and Lake Conroe Dam.

LAT...LON 3003 9567 3012 9585 3064 9556 3051 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 210DEG 49KT 3020 9569

$$
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CrashTestDummy
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:13 am
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:02 am I thought it was supposed to be raining this morning lol
It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard
We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week. :?
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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Cpv17
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I didn’t expect the isolated thunderstorms around. I expected more of a widespread light to moderate steady rain around today. Never happened.
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Winter doesn’t appear to be over with according to the CPC.

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srainhoutx
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48F with drizzle now. We had some small hail not too far away earlier in the day with the isolated storms. I have seen this sort of pattern many time over the years during Trail Ride. Rodeo time seems to always bring a good cold shot and a chance at dreary weather.
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CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:12 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:13 am
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:02 am I thought it was supposed to be raining this morning lol
It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard
We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week. :?
I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.
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Light rain and mist this morning across along the Upper TX Coast will move E and NE today into LA. Another round of sun possible later this afternoon and evening before more clouds and rain chances Thursday through Saturday morning.
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Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

After a cloudy and in some places wet morning…skies will clear from the NW to the SE in the next few hours allowing some sun…enjoy…it will be short lived.

Coastal trough and associated surface low responsible for the fog, drizzle, and rain on Tuesday has moved inland over the central Gulf coast with the associated cold front pushing back into the central Gulf of Mexico. Low clouds over the area will decrease this morning, but upper level cirrus will continue to stream across the region as the sub-tropical jet stream remains overhead.

Next short wave in the nearly stationary SW US trough will begin to approach the region tonight and low clouds will rapidly develop and lower with drizzle and fog also likely as the central Gulf front begins to back northward toward the coast. As another surface low forms over the NW Gulf lift develops over the top of the surface cold pool in place with showers and maybe a thunderstorm developing on Thursday. Warm front will advance inland Thursday night with drizzle, sea fog, and passing showers continuing into at least Friday morning. Warm sector air mass may become entrenched enough over the area by Friday afternoon to result in a more convective shower. Sea fog will likely plague the coastal locations early Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures and winds will be all over the place with frontal passages and surface lows moving across the NW Gulf. Sun today will help warm the area into the 60’s, but cool NE winds and rain on Thursday will keep us locked in the 50’s. Warm frontal passage Thursday night will result in 70’s on Friday and mid 70’s on Saturday prior to a cold front Saturday evening.

Surface low yesterday and strong easterly winds pushed water on to Bolivar and required a short fused coastal flood advisory. Don’t think the surface low event coming up on Thursday will be as strong with lower wind speeds and tides should not cause any significant issues.

Next storm system and cold front will move across the area on Saturday afternoon. SPC has outlooked areas just to our NE for a severe weather threat Saturday afternoon and evening as this cold front comes crashing into the well defined warm sector. Think areas of SE TX will see a line of showers and thunderstorms at some point on Saturday and then a much drier air mass with westerly winds will filter into the area for Saturday night and Sunday which will help clear skies and allow for a sunny Sunday.

Pattern repeats again early next week with yet another short wave and coastal trough/surface low combo moving up the coast. Expect rapidly increasing clouds and rain chances starting as early as Sunday evening, but more likely Monday into Tuesday.

While the overall pattern is wet, rainfall amounts will generally be light…on the order of .25 to .75 of an inch over the next 2-4 days with the greatest amounts to the NE and the lesser amounts toward Matagorda Bay. Much of the weather will be fog, drizzle, and light rain with an occasional passing heavier shower or thunderstorm.
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:58 pm
CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:12 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:13 am

It dampened my driveway south of town. If that's all we get, it will be great. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so I can mow and treat my jungle of a backyard
We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week. :?
I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.
The ground is so saturated around here, .10" gets us back to water standing in the yard. We've had .12" in the past 24 hours.
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CrashTestDummy wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:40 am
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:58 pm
CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:12 pm

We've had 0.08" so far today. That's still too much. Need 2-3 weeks with zero rain so we can smooth out the trenches my wife created trying to mow the back yard a couple of weeks ago burying the tractor up to it's hubs. We could only get to about 1/3 of the yard then.

I'm afraid that the rain is just starting for this week. :?
I don’t really think it’ll rain that much. Sure, the rain chances are high this week, but don’t let that fool you. There was basically a 100% chance of rain today and most places across the viewing area haven’t even picked up any accumulating rainfall. I see the same thing happening for the rest of the week. If it does rain, it’ll probably just be something very light. Might pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain for the rest of the week. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places don’t even receive that much.
The ground is so saturated around here, .10" gets us back to water standing in the yard. We've had .12" in the past 24 hours.
That’s how it was here two weeks ago. It’s dried out pretty well since then though.
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FULL MOON TONIGHT!
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srainhoutx
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Elevated storms are sweeping N across the Region this morning. The 3rd round of thunderstorms are arriving now. Woke me out of a sound sleep. Those storms where not expected until later today. Just goes to show how progressive our weather pattern is right now.
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