January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

A little Joe Bastardi Twitter take...

[Cpv17]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

[harp]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

[srainhoutx]

I don't know, but this looks below normal to me...

[Cpv17]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

If the ao, nao, & epo can all go negative and stay there then I’m not gonna be worried about any torch, that’s for sure lol

[CRASHWX]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

If the ao, nao, & epo can all go negative and stay there then I’m not gonna be worried about any torch, that’s for sure lol

No that was his point in the daily...blowtorch model idea does not add and has no real atmospheric support. Second the current set up has multiple analog years as support for the idea of COLD AND LASTING COLD

[Cpv17]

Even the old GFS is coming around to the idea of a winter storm next week.

[srainhoutx]

HGX is monitoring the recent changes in the models and the over running precipitation as well as the atmospheric profiles for mid next week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS PUSHED 60-70NM OFFSHORE. IT
SHOULD GET ANOTHER PUSH TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER/COOL
AIR ARRIVES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS APPEARS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE
DAY TOMORROW BRINGING A GRADUAL RETURN OF CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH-
TO-NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.

A COASTAL TROF BEGINS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. MOIST UPGLIDE OVER
THE TROF, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY. THERE IS NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM PER SE, OTHER THAN
MAYBE A ZONE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AROUND H85 IF YOU SQUINT
ENOUGH...SO PRIMARILY WOULD EXPECT JUST A STEADY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THRU THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NCNTL
MEXICO THEN EJECT NE AND ACROSS TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS, LOOK FOR THE COASTAL TROF/LOW TO BE PULLED INLAND
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. PW'S CLIMB TO 1.3-1.5"
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THERE COULD NOW BE
A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS PRECIP UPON. TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THIS
FAR OUT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONSIDERING ALREADY WET
GROUND AND ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS...

MUCH LIKE TODAY, WE'LL SEE A WNW WIND SHIFT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER (DRY) FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT &
TUE. THIS FRONT ALSO LOOKS SHALLOW, BUT COLDER. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES UPGLIDE OVER THIS FRONT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/TROF. OPERATIONAL GFS IS DRY, BUT ECMWF/CMC/GFS-FV3 ALL
SHOW SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED. NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (WILL ALSO
KEEP AN EYE ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMP PROFILE)... 47

[don]

18z GFS is now onboard also

[harp]

Let's see how it evolves in future runs....

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is now onboard also

I want to see some of this energy further west..bulk of it looks to be over Louisiana and Mississippi on the models right now.

[harp]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

[Cpv17]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

I don’t give much credence to the old GFS. The new GFS FV3 and the Euro are the way to go these days.

[harp]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

I don’t give much credence to the old GFS. The new GFS FV3 and the Euro are the way to go these days.

I hope you are right.

[CRASHWX]

Well as it gets closer the models should get a better handle on temps. As of now they tend to under shoot so my gut tells me the trends continue as long as the models keep the cold air

[CRASHWX]

Would not be suprised to see it go away for a few runs and then reappear off and on and then lock up if the the short range community starts showing wintery weather mischief...we will see...

[CRASHWX]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

[Cpv17]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

[CRASHWX]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

Models are not finished locking in yet still a lot to process

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

No worries... I’ll be in Florida where it will be 80 so it will happen. Haha