January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Back in October a cold front would roll thru and the moisture stuck around after the frontal passage up to 18 to 36 hours (or more) after a frontal passage. A lot of these systems were heavy at times causing a lot of flooding. This pattern carried over into November/December. By mid December, the systems coming across started coming through quicker, weaker and did not linger. This has carried over into this month. It seems like we will have a little moisture associated with a front and then clears up pretty quickly afterwards.

When the models backed off the southward plunge of Arctic air for this past weekend, it was a sign that this could continue for the rest of the winter season as the pattern keeps it from diving straight down the lee of the Rockies.

With that said, with the lack of deep cold air and the lack of any storms systems associated with the fronts, I think we missed our opportunity for this winter season.

Just read Blake's post after I typed this. Great post Blake.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Thankfully as a SE Texas native I remember 1973 like it was yesterday. The late 50's and early 60's offered a couple of memorable "snow events' here in the Houston area as well. So proud of Blake! And to think he cut his 'weather teeth' right here on our Forum... :mrgreen:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
CRASHWX
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
Contact:

WE DO SEEM TO GET A GLANCING BLOW BUT THE BLOW IS LEGIT! OR SEEMS TO BE ANYWAY
FF3933D4-02AD-4EE9-84A6-1DC4782C4730.png
i
4E716A9E-E482-4D3B-92BD-0E4D2D7A67F7.png
524AA421-0115-483A-80E0-EFBD982ED01C.png
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

CRASHWX wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:47 am WE DO SEEM TO GET A GLANCING BLOW BUT THE BLOW IS LEGIT! OR SEEMS TO BE ANYWAYFF3933D4-02AD-4EE9-84A6-1DC4782C4730.pngi4E716A9E-E482-4D3B-92BD-0E4D2D7A67F7.png524AA421-0115-483A-80E0-EFBD982ED01C.png
Not really. The Euro only gets us to 32 degrees in that time frame. The GFS leaves our entire area above freezing.
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:22 am Thankfully as a SE Texas native I remember 1973 like it was yesterday. The late 50's and early 60's offered a couple of memorable "snow events' here in the Houston area as well. So proud of Blake! And to think he cut his 'weather teeth' right here on our Forum... :mrgreen:
Thanks, Steve! Yup, got my humble beginnings right here -- and of course waiting for :50 past the hour to see John Hope and the tropical update. Or the top and bottom of the hour to see 'Weather Scope' haha
User avatar
CRASHWX
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:59 am
CRASHWX wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:47 am WE DO SEEM TO GET A GLANCING BLOW BUT THE BLOW IS LEGIT! OR SEEMS TO BE ANYWAYFF3933D4-02AD-4EE9-84A6-1DC4782C4730.pngi4E716A9E-E482-4D3B-92BD-0E4D2D7A67F7.png524AA421-0115-483A-80E0-EFBD982ED01C.png
Not really. The Euro only gets us to 32 degrees in that time frame. The GFS leaves our entire area above freezing.
[/quote

Do you think with as cold and heavy of an Artic event is what is being shown up north that we will miss having a shallow but intense cold layer slide south? I guess I just am a bit lost how that works out.
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
User avatar
CRASHWX
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
Contact:

Like my forecast low was 30 last night and we went all the way to 25...what is the reason for that? I am forecast at 31 tonight...should I expect upper 20’s?
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:00 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:22 am Thankfully as a SE Texas native I remember 1973 like it was yesterday. The late 50's and early 60's offered a couple of memorable "snow events' here in the Houston area as well. So proud of Blake! And to think he cut his 'weather teeth' right here on our Forum... :mrgreen:
Thanks, Steve! Yup, got my humble beginnings right here -- and of course waiting for :50 past the hour to see John Hope and the tropical update. Or the top and bottom of the hour to see 'Weather Scope' haha
Yes you did Blake, sniff sniff. You are all grown up now. We raised ya..LOL...I agree with Blake and Steve's write up on this upcoming weather event. Also, I, too, remember the 1973 snowfalls..three of them..two in January and one in February. I, too, miss the tropical weather updates on the 50's and John Hope..boy he was a treasure on the Weather Channel. :)
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote: Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:33 am I think the bigger story is what may happen with the polar vortex dropping into the midwest a week from today. The 00z Euro showing scary low temps -- coldest in years for Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin? This would be seriously dangerous stuff that just boggles my mind. #BarneyOnTheAttack

00z euro midwest temps.png

Regardless, not much here as most goes east.

Btw, whoever made the post about it being a lame winter a few pages back, I agree 100% but in doing some research, last year was as well despite the multiple winter weather events that masked the blowtorch November (+4.9) and February (+6.1) with a relatively normal December (-0.7). January 2018 was the only month that was truly cold with a negative departure of more than 4 degrees.

This year, we had a super cold November (-3.6) while December came in +1.2 degrees and January is running about the same thus far. With all the talk of TPV and negative oscillations this or positive oscillations that. Just goes to show that there's much more to the ingredients to get cold here than just having a substantial SSW event. I don't see anything in the models through the next 16 days that gets me overly excited. Some cold shots but nothing that gives a severe case of "analysis paralysis" where I have to see very single model run as it comes in.

It should be noted that we have yet to even hit the 20s in Houston -- something we accomplished 8 times last year through January 24th.

All that said, what constitutes a "good" winter anyway? Is it the amount of freezes? The severeity or longevity of freezes? The amount of winter weather events? Using that criteria, there are only a handful of benchmark winters we've observed here in the last 150 years.

1895: 20-30 inch snowfall
1899: Back to back nights in the single digits
1930: Lowest temp on record
1973: Multiple accumulating snowfalls
1983: Longest duration freeze, snow and severely cold
1989: Single digits, snow
2004: Christmas snow
2018: Multiple snows, first teens in 22 years.

Those are the ones that come to mind. Even if I missed two or three, the point here is that truly "great winters" in terms of severity are rare and occur only 2 or 3 times in a lifetime.
I do believe there is a misconception by some on what average temperatures for SE Texas truly are. Even for January highs in the low to mid-60s and lows in the low 40s are normal. It's hard to overestimate how mild this climate is during the winter and I think that does disappoint some when we don't see a straight month of lows near freezing. HGX has a really good climo graphic page for the last 19 years showing precipitation and temperatures compared with normals. I myself like to reference it every once in a while to take a more objective look at how close to normal we really are.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_graphs_iah


As for this year, it has been difficult to truly get those blasts of cold air to come straight south. A lot of troughs just haven't been able to dig deep enough south, and even if they do they have been quick to progress eastward. Even with the mentioned SSW and negative AO, location is key and this month has been a key example. The cold air is moving south, but unless you are in the right place it might not make a huge difference for local weather.


Either way, we are just moving into the end of January and we still have February and March which has provided plenty of surprises in the past. Enjoy the mild conditions while you can because it won't be long before highs in the 60s will seem like a distant memory.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The 12Z Global models appear to be coming into agreement with the timing of the next strong front. The latest European model now has a faster arriving solution that pushes the strong front through late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. This looks to be a very dynamic front with very strong winds out of the North. Temperatures today do not look much different than yesterday mornings strong front at this time. I believe there is a non zero chance that some light wintry mischief could occur much like yesterday morning. Will continue to monitor throughout the weekend.
Attachments
ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_850_us_6.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot] and 61 guests