January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Cromagnum]

38 near Lake Jackson and I just got pelted by about 5 pieces of small graupel

[srainhoutx]

We might want to keep an eye on mid next week. It's going to be a difficult pattern forecasting wise. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay and energy out over the Northern Pacific riding up and over the building Alaska Ridge then diving S into the Intermountain West will need to be monitored for any unexpected surprises.

[DoctorMu]

I’m on Galveston. It just started sleeting here. Lol

[Kingwood36]

Just had some little snow flakes fall here in south east Houston on navagation blvrd

[jasons2k]

Sleet pellets pinged on my deck today by the bay. Fun while it lasted!!!
Okay lets move on to summer now.

LOL. We cold weather lovers have to tolerate disgusting heat and humidity 9 months out of the year. You can wait another 8 weeks for us to enjoy our brief window.

Following what is going on across the globe and looking at weeklies, I don’t think we will see consistent warmth until mid-late April. I’m not saying it’s going to be extremely cold, just that we should hang below normal a good while.

Whether I plant in March or April is of no consequence to me.

Nope. Shouldn’t have to wait for warm weather. I choose to live in SE Texas, where it’s warm (usually), not up north.

Wanted to move to Florida recently but another career opportunity came calling here first.

One side benefit (if you like active weather) to a colder pattern in March & April may mean a more active spring storm season. I’ll gladly trade some below normal temps for an active spring storm season, so long as we don’t get to freezing.

One of the things I miss about living up in DFW is the storm season. The colder winters and hotter summers...not so much.

[sambucol]

We might want to keep an eye on mid next week. It's going to be a difficult pattern forecasting wise. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay and energy out over the Northern Pacific riding up and over the building Alaska Ridge then diving S into the Intermountain West will need to be monitored for any unexpected surprises.

Do you have an idea of the temps that will affect our area from this system next week? Wondering if it will freeze, and how hard of a freeze. Thanks.

[Cpv17]

We might want to keep an eye on mid next week. It's going to be a difficult pattern forecasting wise. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay and energy out over the Northern Pacific riding up and over the building Alaska Ridge then diving S into the Intermountain West will need to be monitored for any unexpected surprises.

Thank you for saying this! I’ve been trying to say this for the past 3 days now and no one really listens or pays any attention to what I say except for a couple people on here lol

[harp]

Anything from the Euro?

[srainhoutx]

We might want to keep an eye on mid next week. It's going to be a difficult pattern forecasting wise. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay and energy out over the Northern Pacific riding up and over the building Alaska Ridge then diving S into the Intermountain West will need to be monitored for any unexpected surprises.

Do you have an idea of the temps that will affect our area from this system next week? Wondering if it will freeze, and how hard of a freeze. Thanks.

Too soon to know that sort 'finer' detail beyond a day or two. Plan on a light freeze for now, but could trend downward toward the mid/upper 20's as we get closer to this coming Sunday/Monday when we will be in that 2 to 3 day out range.

[CRASHWX]

Sure looks focused in the plains or heartland and looks to hang across Texas for a while.

[srainhoutx]

Anything from the Euro?

Strong front Tuesday morning

[Kingwood36]

We might want to keep an eye on mid next week. It's going to be a difficult pattern forecasting wise. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay and energy out over the Northern Pacific riding up and over the building Alaska Ridge then diving S into the Intermountain West will need to be monitored for any unexpected surprises.

Thank you for saying this! I’ve been trying to say this for the past 3 days now and no one really listens or pays any attention to what I say except for a couple people on here lol

Guess everyone has a hard time believing it since we havent had much to get excited about

[harp]

Anything from the Euro?

Strong front Tuesday morning

Thank you. I wonder if it kicks up a low like it has been showing lately?

[Kingwood36]

All I know is..I saw 3 little pieces of sleet so I'm all excited lol

[CRASHWX]

Well Mr. Srain is like a Blood Hound at sniffing out Sub Trop waves / Disturbances / Gulf Low development! So if he is on the hunt it’s because he has a trail! I may have not been a long term poster but I have watched him for several years and when he gets a scent that dog hunts!

[Kingwood36]

Hopefully feburary will bring us something before hell sets in

[wxdude]

Here in Surfside had a little snow/snow grains move through. I'm a happy camper.

[don]

Looks like some of the models were right after all with the light changeover to wintry precip. Next week looks like possibly our next opportunity of wintry precip which the FV3 and CMC both hint at fwiw. Btw the FV3 did a pretty good job with this system it consistently showed a changeover as the precip ended for the last few days.

[Cpv17]

Srain, I believe that the TPV has messed up our winter. If it were located about 500 miles west then I believe we’d be in a much better position for snow and cold. All it’s doing is pinwheeling around the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay, keeping the coldest anomalies across the Midwest and Northeast. There’s not really any sort of strong surface highs up in the western half of Canada that would drive a major Artic blast south. The only reason I see us getting a little cold is because when the TPV rotates around back towards the SW and S, it sends a little piece of cold air our way, but nothing that’s really eye popping. The eye popping stuff will be in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast right underneath the TPV. It doesn’t really do us any good here because the cold shots are really transient while areas up north are staying at 10 to 40 degrees below normal for weeks on end. We either need it to relax or move considerably further west. These cold shots need to originate from western Canada, not central Canada. We need 1045-1055mb highs building in those regions. The TPV isn’t really allowing that.. just my 2 cents.

[srainhoutx]

Cpv17 I agree the Polar Vortex (TPV) over Hudson Bay has been a wildcard in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. The PV that was prominent over Siberia/Eastern Europe was crushed but as the models suggested back a couple of weeks ago 3 PV anomalies formed with the Hudson Bay lobe being stubborn to break down. There are indications that the stubborn HB PV relaxes as a Tropospheric Negative Arctic Oscillation develops. Cold air looks to build across our source region, but the $64000.00 question is will that translate to cold air down here? Time will tell.