January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[tireman4]

DarkSky (which probably uses just raw model outputs) has me at 34 Sun AM and 33 Monday AM. I would love it if that’s right.

The run yesterday evening felt great after warming up, but geez my nose just won’t stop running in the cold. I prefer it to be in the 60’s at least....

Yeah, at my age, I have to warm up. I miss the days when I could just scoot off and log in my 5, 6 or 7 milers. Now, I have to stretch, warm up and then run. Sigh. I do love running in the 50's. 60's are a tad warm for me, but that is me..LOL

[unome]

some latest Discussions from WPC- warmer temp trend is good for me, not a fan of cold or I wouldn't live in Houston area

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

Short Range Forecast Discussion...Amended
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 16 2019 - 12Z Fri Jan 18 2019

...Major winter storm for California Wednesday and Thursday...
...Cold across the northern tier of the nation...

A major winter storm will hammer much of California through early Thursday
as a deep surface low tracks towards the coast. An impressive surge of
deep moisture ahead of the cold front through Wednesday night will produce
widespread heavy rain across the lower elevations of the West Coast
states, with 2 to 4 inches of rain likely for many areas. A broad slight
risk area for excessive rainfall encompasses much of central California,
and a moderate risk for the mountainous terrain near Los Angeles, along
with the possibility of mud slides.

Blizzard conditions are expected for the higher elevations of the Sierra
Nevada through early Thursday with a few/several feet of new snow and
winds in excess of 50 mph forecast. Very heavy snow is also expected for
the mountains of northern California and extending northward across the
Cascades. As the storm system moves inland across the Intermountain West,
heavy snow is expected from Nevada across Utah, southern Idaho, Western
Wyoming, and western Colorado, and these could be heavy at times with over
a foot of snow at higher elevations.

Elsewhere across the nation, frigid temperatures will remain in place
across the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest after the passage of a strong
cold front. In fact, high temperatures will be nearly 10-20 degrees below
normal. There should be enough moisture with this front to produce some
light snow over the lower Great Lakes and across New England.

With a large surface high over the Gulf Coast region, return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in moisture through eastern Texas
and into the central Plains, where some showers are likely on Wednesday.
Precipitation will spread north and east across the Mississippi Valley on
Thursday as a front pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley and then
the Mid-Atlantic region. Along the northern portions of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, expect some snow and a wintry mix with this system from
Thursday night and into Friday.

Hamrick/Reinhart


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 19 2019 - 12Z Wed Jan 23 2019

...Major Central to Northeastern U.S. Arctic Blast/Winter Storm...


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
blend of well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECENS and
the 18 UTC GEFS. Recent GFS runs are now overall a bit more
progressive with systems, albeit with less ensemble support.
Despite timing variance, there remains a strong signal for the
upcoming major Central to Northeastern U.S. Arctic Blast/Winter
Storm.

...Weather Highlights/Hazards...

Frigid arctic air spills across the central then eastern U.S. as
the northern stream amplifies around a Hudson Bay upper vortex.
Underneath, amplified southern stream mid-upper level trough
approach/height falls and favorable coupled upper jet support will
spawn lead cyclogenesis from the south-central to eastern U.S.
over MLK Jr. weekend. Deepening Gulf of Mexico then Atlantic
moisture will advect inland in advance and around the developing
storm and overrun a sharp arctic front. Heavy snow will spread
from portions of the central Plains through the Midwest/Ohio
Valley, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast along with some
threat of blizzard conditions in the tight pressure gradient
between a main surface low and a strong arctic high. Meanwhile,
heavy warm-sector rains/strong convection move through the
South/Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and a transition zone between snow
and rain is likely to include significant sleet and freezing rain.
Please consult WPC Day 4-7 QPF and Winter Weather Outlook for a
probabilistic assessment of the significant winter weather threat.

Upstream, Pacific storm systems will reload with new focus as a
heavy precipitation threat into the Pacific Northwest. Wintery
weather spreads/moderates inland across the north-central Great
Basin/Rockies later in the holiday weekend then across the central
U.S. early-mid next week. There is a signal for increased
mid-upper level trough amplitude/separation over the s-central
U.S., but there is more uncertainty with the specifics of this
flow and associated surface system response. However, most
guidance supports an increasing lead Gulf moisture inflow and
precipitation pattern with additional potential for wintery
weather on the cooled northern periphery heading into Tue/Wed.

Schichtel


WPC medium range 500 mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indexes are found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5day ... _conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids ... sbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_ ... .php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml

Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Valid Jan 16/0000 UTC thru Jan 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of 00Z ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, 12Z EC ENS
Confidence: Slightly above average

---07Z UPDATE---
No major change to the preliminary preference or reasoning. The
00Z UKMET has converged to the ECMWF and CMC, and thus could also
be included in preference.

---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
Models are in excellent agreement overall through the first 48
hours of the forecast (17.12Z), after which point some differences
begin to emerge with a strong trough that will kick through the
West and emerge into the Plains on Friday Night. In general, there
seems to be division into two primary scenarios. The 00Z GFS, NAM
and 12Z UKMET represent a scenario where the associated vorticity
max digs a little further south, and the trough lags slightly
more, leading to eventual phasing issues with the northern stream
broad trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF and
CMC show a cleaner phasing, and are supported by nearly all of the
ECMWF and CMC ensemble members. The preference leans toward the
ECMWF and CMC given greater ensemble support, consistency with
previous forecasts, and consistency with the medium range blends.
There also don't appear to be strong mechanisms in place that
would tend to lead to maintenance of split flow and poor phasing.
Prior to Friday, though, a broad-based model blend could be
utilized across the CONUS with above average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers

[redneckweather]

Where is the arctic air in Canada? It definitely isn't in a position to come down here. The front this weekend will be cold but the source region will not be the arctic. I wouldn't fret on that too much because even if it was a big arctic front like was forecasted a day or two ago, what fun is that kind of cold air with no precip around?

Next...

[jasons2k]

Indeed. Why suffer through the cold when we have nothing to show for it but a bunch of dead plants. I’m ready to see the sun and some 70’s again. At least I may get my 70’s this week. Some sun would be nice too.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Where is the arctic air in Canada? It definitely isn't in a position to come down here. The front this weekend will be cold but the source region will not be the arctic. I wouldn't fret on that too much because even if it was a big arctic front like was forecasted a day or two ago, what fun is that kind of cold air with no precip around?

Next...

I'll take cold and dry over hot and dry all day every day. Some of us prefer 30-40 over 80-90. I'd take it 8000 times out of 10. The 70s are an interesting temp range for me because they feel wonderful in September and early October. I don't care for them in Winter. I can run 10 miles, go hunting and sit on my back porch in comfort in sub freezing weather. I won't do any of those once it gets north of 75-80.

I grew up in Texas, love the Independent nature of this state, the economy here, the low taxes, the good people and the changing topographical regions of the state. I (expletive deleted) hate the weather here.

It's why I've taken up a plan for dual residence in Montana and Texas.

[DoctorMu]

GEFS ensemble is holding to a near 10 day period of cold beginning Saturday (with the exception of Tuesday next week. Cold over performed last year, The really dens stuff can stick to the spine of the Rockies. I wouldn't even try to predict the nature of the precip. Too many complex factors to have any confidence beyond 2-3 days. It looks like much of the energy with a series of fronts and lows is east of Texas.

We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

Where is the arctic air in Canada? It definitely isn't in a position to come down here. The front this weekend will be cold but the source region will not be the arctic. I wouldn't fret on that too much because even if it was a big arctic front like was forecasted a day or two ago, what fun is that kind of cold air with no precip around?

Next...

I'll take cold and dry over hot and dry all day every day. Some of us prefer 30-40 over 80-90. I'd take it 8000 times out of 10. The 70s are an interesting temp range for me because they feel wonderful in September and early October. I don't care for them in Winter. I can run 10 miles, go hunting and sit on my back porch in comfort in sub freezing weather. I won't do any of those once it gets north of 75-80.

I grew up in Texas, love the Independent nature of this state, the economy here, the low taxes, the good people and the changing topographical regions of the state. I (expletive deleted) hate the weather here.

It's why I've taken up a plan for dual residence in Montana and Texas.

I hate the damn A/C and water bills during the summer, and sweating incessantly. Plus, I prefer to run in cool or temperate conditions. Grew up in Illinois and mostly North Carolina.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z European has a sharp front diving all the way down to the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan by hour 96. I tend to agree with the WPC and the NWS folks that erring with caution even in the 3 to 5 day range is prudent. I mentioned several days ago that there likely would be waves of cold air dropping out of Canada and likely Siberia as we enter the last half of January. I believe this first front is just the initial shot of colder air. But what do I know. I am no Pro Met and don't make a 6 figure income predicting the weather and I did not stay in a Holiday Inn last night.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12z FV3 brings back winter weather to SE Texas next week. Between the CMC, FV3, GFS and Euro this is the 7th time a storm has been modeled for mid next week.

I'm certainly intrigued at the coming and going of it.... And HOLY MOLY, that snow map in the Northeast.

[srainhoutx]

Oh, and that potential storm system mid next week after this first wave of sharply colder air looks to be reinforced. I wouldn't discard any potential mischief rearing it's head again as next Tuesday through Thursday nears...

[Kingwood36]

Oh, and that potential storm system mid next week after this first wave of sharply colder air looks to be reinforced. I wouldn't discard any potential mischief rearing it's head again as next Tuesday through Thursday nears...

Now that is what I like to hear!

[Cpv17]

The FV3 is ugly in the long range. Looks to bring back a +EPO.. good thing it’s in the long range. 12z GFS through 384 hours out doesn’t even have a freeze in the Houston area. Has some cold shots, but nothing freezing.. yikes.

[srainhoutx]

So the Climate Prediction Center believes it's going to get a bit colder than January normal mean temperatures. That colder than normal increases as January ends. I also see our Climate Model...(CFSv2) is going bonkers as January ends. Nothing to see here. Move along...

[stormlover]

what did euro show today?

[wxman57]

Sorry, folks. No Arctic air coming down this weekend. There isn't any Arctic air in western Canada (source region for our fronts). It's only modified Canadian air from the Northern Plains. Perhaps a light freeze (32F) Sunday/Monday. It's a cold front, which we see quite often in winter, but that's it.

Here's the latest European model temperature forecast for north Houston (Bush). Just a little cold air.

[jasons2k]

Best news of the day!! Will cover the plants still but hopefully this holds.

[wxman57]

Best news of the day!! Will cover the plants still but hopefully this holds.

I'd say 32 for the low Sun/Mon +/- 2 degrees.

[BlueJay]

YAY! WXMAN57! Great news!!

[TexasMetBlake]

Sorry, folks. No Arctic air coming down this weekend. There isn't any Arctic air in western Canada (source region for our fronts). It's only modified Canadian air from the Northern Plains. Perhaps a light freeze (32F) Sunday/Monday. It's a cold front, which we see quite often in winter, but that's it.

Here's the latest European model temperature forecast for north Houston (Bush). Just a little cold air.

I’m beginning to agree. I was telling Brooks just today that I don’t see the cold air building in canada. Temps of -10°F just isn’t impressive. Neither is -20°F for that matter.

[snowman65]

Sorry, folks. No Arctic air coming down this weekend. There isn't any Arctic air in western Canada (source region for our fronts). It's only modified Canadian air from the Northern Plains. Perhaps a light freeze (32F) Sunday/Monday. It's a cold front, which we see quite often in winter, but that's it.

Here's the latest European model temperature forecast for north Houston (Bush). Just a little cold air.

Don't hate me because I was right