January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Cpv17]

With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edit: still shows measurable snow on the ground through hour 384!

Because we’ve seen this song and dance before. Euro is dry through the morning of the 23rd. CMC shows rain at hour 240 but doesn’t go beyond that. Give it a few more days and you’ll see it pick up. There’s absolutely nothing to be excited about at the current time. If snow is still showing up here in 25 more model runs, then I’ll be excited but not before lol

I agree. If it still shows it within 2-3 days out then I’ll start to get excited.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m most excited about days 10 plus. It’s going to get cold here and just about everywhere.

There’s no hedging here, the end of January and start of February are going to be beautiful for us cold weather lovers.

[txsnowmaker]

With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edit: still shows measurable snow on the ground through hour 384!

Because we’ve seen this song and dance before. Euro is dry through the morning of the 23rd. CMC shows rain at hour 240 but doesn’t go beyond that. Give it a few more days and you’ll see it pick up. There’s absolutely nothing to be excited about at the current time. If snow is still showing up here in 25 more model runs, then I’ll be excited but not before lol

Yes and I get being cautious. However, it’s not like the other models are showing something different. Like you said, the Canadian and Euro simply don’t go that far out. Fingers crossed that this is not a one-run aberration and that it comes to fruition. Also, it’s been a while since I’ve seen any model show that much snow for Houston, and then have some of it hang around on the ground for 5 or more days to boot.

[TexasMetBlake]

18z GFS coming in colder with a stronger high and a further west placement. Also looks to delay the front a bit until Saturday night or Sunday morning. The Chevron Houston Marathon looks very interesting. Difficult forecast.

[Kingwood36]

Interesting days ahead for sure!

[stormlover]

Fv3 18z gfs would be nasty wintry weather

[Kingwood36]

Fv3 18z gfs would be nasty wintry weather

What does it show?

[stormlover]

Ice, sleet, snow, wed during the day through mid-day Thursday. Long ways out

[MontgomeryCoWx]

FV3 18z unloads 30 hours of winter precip over SE TX from 228-258 hours and then reloads and does it again a couple days later.

That’s now the GFS, and FV3 showing wintry precip.

We are still a ways out but I’m loving the trend with the cold.

[Kingwood36]

FV3 18z unloads 30 hours of winter precip over SE TX from 228-258 hours and then reloads and does it again a couple days later.

That’s now the GFS, and FV3 showing wintry precip.

We are still a ways out but I’m loving the trend with the cold.

That's crazy but hopefully it shows it a cpl days later to then we can start to get excited

[CRASHWX]

Or is it crazy! Lol...could the atmosphere be loading for the crazy? Food for thought

[Andrew]

If you really want to see how much of a change in the pattern could be happening during late January, check out how negative the Arctic Oscillation goes.

[CRASHWX]

LITTLE EXPLANATION

[CRASHWX]

Her is a fact...the storms will come and go with the cold from model run to run. They are going to be influx till the atmospheric pattern dials in and makes it’s move and even then the models may struggle with the complexity...it may take the help of Meso community to play cleanup hitter! Lol...sorry guys ready for some Stro’s

[CRASHWX]

[CRASHWX]

[DoctorMu]

GFS, GEFS, CMC have low in the 20s in a week for a few days. We had 2 nights in the mid-teens last year.

A solid cold snap. Precip is varying from run to run...we'll see about wintry mischief.

[Katdaddy]

A chilly morning across SE TX with temps in the 30s and 40s. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with increasing clouds Tuesday followed increasing rain chances Wednesday ahead of Saturday’s Arctic front.

[CRASHWX]

[CRASHWX]