January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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harp wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:37 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:23 pm The end of the 12z FV3 looks very nice!!! Best look I’ve seen on any model this whole winter. Only problem is that it’s in fantasy land, but it would point towards the middle of the month for a January cool down that so many people have been talking about.
I'm looking at it. Can you explain what you mean?
Yep!

Image

The orange/red colors indicate blocking and the blue colors indicate a trough or lower pressures. On the map above you have blocking over Alaska and blocking over the North Atlantic near Greenland. This type of setup would indicate a -NAO/-EPO and would promote a huge dip south in the jet stream causing a big trough over the southern U.S. Normally, the jet stream just carries Pacific air into the U.S. We call that zonal flow because the flow is just flat west to east across the country, but since there’s a block near Alaska, the jet stream can’t go into a block so it has to go around it. So what the jet stream does is that it goes north of the block and goes into the Artic/Polar regions and taps into the Artic air. It can’t go east because of the huge block near Greenland so it goes south through the path of least resistance. We could call this cross polar flow because the flow of the jet stream is coming straight out of the Artic regions.

Image

You can see what starts to happen in the pic above when you get the -EPO/-NAO combo. Our source region (western/northern Canada) gets flooded with cold air from the Artic and it’s headed south.

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Now look what happens with this setup up in Canada. You have a 10141mb high getting ready to drop south into the U.S. and then a massive Artic high pressure of 1056mb that’s really building up the Artic air and driving it south. The stronger the high pressure builds is a good indicator of how cold the air will get. Any high pressure that’s 1040mb or more is a pretty strong high. Anything north of 1050mb is crazy high and strong. Now if you get a high that’s 1060mb or stronger then that’s when you can start talking about some historic cold.

Image

Now the last piece that you need for snow in the south. Look at the low/trough in southern Cali. That indicates an incoming storm system. If we can get that trough to dig further south into Mexico and then cut across central or south Texas and pull down that Artic air we would all be very happy in Texas and most likely you would be too in Louisiana.
harp
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Incredible explanation. Thank you. From what you have explained, yes, things are starting to look favorable. Thank you again.
harp
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Does the traditional GFS show a similar scenario?
Cpv17
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harp wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:30 pm Does the traditional GFS show a similar scenario?
Nope, nowhere near it. It’s quite the opposite actually. The FV3 has performed better this winter though. It was the first model to sniff out the big cold blast we had in November. Now all this can and will change multiple times on future model runs, but now you know what to look for on the models.
Cpv17
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My Weather Channel app has a 40% chance of some light freezing rain now for Thursday morning here in Wharton.
Kingwood36
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Wouldnt put much stock in the weather channel lol..I noticed Blake Mathews posted on fb about a winter storm for austin,san Antonio,dallas..says it might be to warm here but he is watching it
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:01 pm Wouldnt put much stock in the weather channel lol..I noticed Blake Mathews posted on fb about a winter storm for austin,san Antonio,dallas..says it might be to warm here but he is watching it
I know that, but I look for trends on various different forecasts and that’s a nice trend to see. Also, the channel 11 forecast has temperatures way too warm for next Wednesday. All model guidance suggest temps quite a bit colder than that. I’m expecting mid to upper 30’s for the high on Wednesday all across our viewing area and it could possibly be even colder than that. We will have a better understanding of what the temps will be by Monday when we can really start using the NAM model which handles the temp forecast really well.
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:10 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:01 pm Wouldnt put much stock in the weather channel lol..I noticed Blake Mathews posted on fb about a winter storm for austin,san Antonio,dallas..says it might be to warm here but he is watching it
I know that, but I look for trends on various different forecasts and that’s a nice trend to see. Also, the channel 11 forecast has temperatures way too warm for next Wednesday. All model guidance suggest temps quite a bit colder than that. I’m expecting mid to upper 30’s for the high on Wednesday all across our viewing area and it could possibly be even colder than that. We will have a better understanding of what the temps will be by Monday when we can really start using the NAM model which handles the temp forecast really well.
Ya I just saw channel 2 forecast for Wed and Thursday and they have highs in the 40's
TexasMetBlake
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Hey guys, interesting few days ahead. Here's my thoughts on it. Still a watch and see. Looking at the Skew-T's, i'm not overly encouraged about winter weather here. Just not much in the way of dry air and the dewpoints just aren't as low as I'd like to see them. We'll see though!

https://tinyurl.com/y8jlf9g9
Cpv17
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18z GFS & FV3 drop the winter weather threat for not just Texas, but for the entire south.
harp
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:12 pm 18z GFS & FV3 drop the winter weather threat for not just Texas, but for the entire south.
You can just about flip a six sided coin at this point.
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srainhoutx
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The upper air disturbance (shortwave) is just arriving onshore in NW Canada. There is another wave behind it in the North Pacific just S and W of the Aleutian Islands. Also a piece of the Polar Vortex is spinning over Hudson Bay. I suspect we will need the NW Canada shortwave to be fully sampled in the upper air data and a couple more days of data before we have any real idea what mid week holds regarding our sensible weather. That said some of the new 2 meter temperature data from the very long range NAM and the 18Z FV3 GFS are very chilly with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 30's to near 40F. Remember last November we really had no idea until about 36 to 48 hours in advance that snow flurries would fly across our Region much less thunder sleet... ;)
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SKIDOG48
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Brink of a major winter storm.
Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:25 pm The upper air disturbance (shortwave) is just arriving onshore in NW Canada. There is another wave behind it in the North Pacific just S and W of the Aleutian Islands. Also a piece of the Polar Vortex is spinning over Hudson Bay. I suspect we will need the NW Canada shortwave to be fully sampled in the upper air data and a couple more days of data before we have any real idea what mid week holds regarding our sensible weather. That said some of the new 2 meter temperature data from the very long range NAM and the 18Z FV3 GFS are very chilly with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 30's to near 40F. Remember last November we really had no idea until about 36 to 48 hours in advance that snow flurries would fly across our Region much less thunder sleet... ;)
I agree with you 100%! In another 36-48 hours we’ll know a lot more.
Cpv17
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Huge difference between the NAM and the new and old GFS. NAM resembles the Euro more. NAM has a huge winter storm in the making for Texas.

NAM:
Image

GFS:
Image
Kingwood36
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Does this include us or just north texas?
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:05 pm Does this include us or just north texas?
NAM: Image

GFS: Image
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:17 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:05 pm Does this include us or just north texas?
NAM: Image

GFS: Image

So basically no lol just rain
txsnowmaker
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Interesting. National Weather Service has metro Houston sitting at 35 degrees F early Thursday morning around 4 am with a dew point of 31 F and a 40 percent chance of precipitation. Hmm...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =0&dd=&bw=
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:17 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:05 pm Does this include us or just north texas?
NAM: Image

GFS: Image

So basically no lol just rain
Not true. The NAM only goes out to 84 hours and it shows a lot of cold air still headed our way with the system still out near El Paso. Basically the system is just barely getting started at the end of the NAM. If it would go out further I’m fairly confident much more of the state would be included in the wintry precip. Going to be a close call. Our best chance appears to be from 6pm Wednesday to 6am Thursday as of right now from what I’m seeing.
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