December 2018: Mid Week Rain/Christmas Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm
Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.
Team #NeverSummer

CRASHWX
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by CRASHWX » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:12 pm

Seen situations like this dump 6-8 inches in a very short period of Time and create tough road conditions...worry about homes that are susceptible to situational flooding...ie...rains a great deal in a short period and water rises in the streets and gets into houses. Flooding where storm drains are over whelmed.
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:

Cpv17
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:23 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 pm
snowman65 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm
Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.
Ditto. Modoki El Niño’s are different from your traditional ones. This winter has plenty of potential for winter weather.

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srainhoutx
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:12 pm

Wednesday afternoon weather briefing Update from Jeff:

Significant storm system to affect the region Friday and Saturday.

Widespread heavy rainfall likely with increasing threat for flooding.

There have been no significant changes to the forecast reasoning today with a strong storm system expected to impact the areas starting as early as late Thursday afternoon with scattered showers building to more significant rainfall on Friday and Friday night. Extremely moist profiles remain in play for the Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning period with near maximum forecasted PW values for early December and a fairly deep warm and saturated profile over the area which will help to maximize rainfall rates and rainfall production. WPC has upgraded a large part of the area now into a slight risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding and a portion of the area into a moderate risk (see graphic below).

Rainfall Amounts:
There have been now significant changes today with expected rainfall amounts with widespread amounts of 2-5 inches likely and isolated totals up to 8 inches or possibly even slightly higher. Rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant run-off in area watersheds given the already wet conditions that area in place. Concern is growing that the areas along and NW of US 59 will see the heaviest rainfall especially the San Jacinto River basin.

Current rainfall projections, if they verify, indicate that flooding would be possible along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, Peach Creek, Caney Creek.

Would expect significant rises…potentially to flood stage or above…on several other watersheds including the East Fork of the San Jacinto River, Cypress Creek, Cedar Bayou, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Halls Bayou, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Keegans Bayou, South Mayde Creek.

Rainfall intensities in short duration will determine how watersheds such as Brays, White Oak, Buffalo, Greens, Clear Creek respond.

Addicks/Barker: Reservoirs are not holding any water and gates are currently passing normal flows. Gates will be closed once rainfall begins.

Lake Conroe: no pre-releases will be made as this would fill the downstream river ahead of the incoming rainfall

Lake Houston: The City of Houston is monitoring forecasts and will likely lower Lake Houston up to 18 inches



Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (most of this will fall Friday and Friday night):
12052018 Jeff 3 untitled.png
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Friday-Saturday):
12052018 Jeff 4 untitled.png
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jasons
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by jasons » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:28 pm

Waited until this afternoon to run in the sun and it’s still gonna be colder than a witch’s t**** in this wind!

Edited: Run was a little chilly on the face but overall it was great!

Cromagnum
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:27 pm

Hate that it's been beautiful for a few weekdays stuck in the office, and then a shitstorm for the weekend...so much for decorating the house, again.

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djmike
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by djmike » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:48 pm

Bring on the rains! Les’ do ‘dis!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College area)

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DoctorMu
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Re: December 2018: Friday/Saturday Heavy Rainfall Potential

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:50 pm

It's been a beautiful 2 days in College Station. Sunny and in the 50s. No drenched sweating while walking fast or running. A/C off and sprinklers in repose.

Rainfall is leaning towards excessive still as the weekend begins. The Canadian has 5-7 inches NW of Houston. GFS still is leaning farther north with the brunt of the precip.

Image


A memorable November with a trace of snow and cool weather. The state is set for an active December.

Image

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DoctorMu
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Re: December 2018: Late Week Storm Brewing

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:10 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 pm
snowman65 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm
Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.

Shallow arctic air and overrun with icing are typical more likely than significant snowfall. We'll see.

CRASHWX
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Re: December 2018: Friday/Saturday Heavy Rainfall Potential

Post by CRASHWX » Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:52 pm

Saw where the long range was setting up to look like winters of 76-77 and 77-78
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:

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