December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harp
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Euro doesn't go out that far.
SLM87TX
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snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:13 am christmas.JPGChristmas day GFS...I know it will change but still fun the share :)
Man someone beat me to the punch. Saw this too.
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srainhoutx
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harp wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:40 am How far out did the GFS predict your November snow dusting?
Hints starting showing up around November 2nd that an impressive storm system may be possible across Texas and the Southern Plains for November 12th and 13th. It wasn't until later on the 12th that the very short fuse models such as the HRRR sniffed out the flurries/sleet that did occur on November 13th across SE Texas.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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harp
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:24 am
harp wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:40 am How far out did the GFS predict your November snow dusting?
Hints starting showing up around November 2nd that an impressive storm system may be possible across Texas and the Southern Plains for November 12th and 13th. It wasn't until later on the 12th that the very short fuse models such as the HRRR sniffed out the flurries/sleet that did occur on November 13th across SE Texas.
Thank you. I was curious.
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CRASHWX
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Srain...do you see connections to 66 / 76 / 77 as far as cold invasion?
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 111543
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure has moved east this morning and southerly
winds should increase today. An upper level ridge was located over
the Plains and Texas this morning on the 12Z analysis but this
ridge should flatten as a short wave strengthens across the
northern Plains. Overall forecast looks on track but did go a
degree or two higher on max temps today with clear skies and warm
air advection beginning.

Next chance of rain looks on track for Thursday morning although
that chance of rain may linger more during the day if the upper
level low slows down a bit as the latest 00/06Z guidance show.
We`ll see if that trend continues with the 12Z guidance.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

AVIATION...
Generally clear skies are expected this morning with some cirrus
moving into the region this afternoon. Could get some patch
ground fog at both KCXO and KLBX around sunrise. Light winds will
become S-SE and gradually increase through the day. Some potential
for a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings after 09z. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies with some isolated areas of patchy fog was
observed yesterday night and early this morning. Further
adjustments were made to the temperature forecast grids as
temperatures dipped lower than what the models were forecasting,
particularly over the northeast counties of the CWA. Winds were
calm and variable.

High pressure over TX will continue to dominate the local region
today, resulting in sunny to partly cloudy skies and tranquil
weather conditions. A warmer southerly wind flow will return
today. Temperatures will be slightly higher with highs fluctuating
in the low to mid 60s this afternoon and lows fluctuating in the
low 40s over the northern portions to mid 50s along the coastal
region tonight. This flow will also allow for an increase in low
level moisture.

An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
Wednesday night through Thursday. First, a mid to upper shortwave
moving eastward from Mexico moves across TX Wednesday night
through Thursday. The combination of temperature and moisture
advection along with an increase in instability will be sufficient
for shower and thunderstorm development as it moves across the
local area. PWAT values are currently up to around 1.5". Based on
the latest SPC forecast, strong to severe thunderstorm are
possible over SETX and is currently under a marginal risk of
severe storms for Thursday. Texas Tech WRF also indicates areas of
strong storms Wednesday night through Thursday. Also, an upper
level trough is to amplify to our north Thursday and associated
cold front moves into SE TX Thursday evening, bringing in a drier
and colder air mass, and thus reducing rain chances thereafter.
Models continue to suggest a very tight pressure gradient over the
local region, which will result in a significant wind surge in
the wake of the front, especially over the coastal regions and
Gulf waters. Model guidance is currently forecasting winds between
25-35 KTS with gusts up to around 35 KTS over the coastal regions
and up to around 45 KTS over the waters Thursday night into
possibly Friday night. If this trend continues, a wind advisory
will likely be issued for the Barrier Islands and could spread a
little more inland over the most exposed areas. For information on
the dangerous marine conditions expected, please refer to the
marine discussion below. Temperatures should dip back into low to
mid 50s Friday afternoon and into the mid 30s to mid 40s on Friday
night.

Tranquil weather conditions should prevail over the weekend into
early next week as high pressure builds over TX. Temperatures
will gradually increase over the weekend through early next week
as well.

MARINE...

High pressure over SE TX will shift east by tonight with a light
onshore wind returning today. The pressure gradient will tighten
Wednesday night as low pressure deepens over the TX panhandle. The
low will move toward the Arklatex by Thursday night and a strong
pressure gradient will be in place. A SW wind on Thursday will be
west by afternoon and west-northwest by Friday as the surface low
moves toward the Ohio valley. The surface low will intensify
significantly as it treks toward the Arklatex and surface winds will
increase quickly Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds will likely
exceed 25 knots on Thursday and possibly 30 knots Thursday night and
Friday with wind gusts approaching 45 knots. A Gale Watch will be
issued later today or early Wednesday. Mariners in small craft
should remain in port late Thursday into Friday.

Tide levels will also drop in response to the strong offshore wind.
Water levels will fall about 2.5 to 3.0 below normal levels.
Navigation in the upper reaches of the bays will be difficult. A
Low Water Advisory will likely be required Thu night into Friday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 48 64 58 66 / 0 0 20 60 30
Houston (IAH) 64 49 68 60 69 / 0 0 10 70 50
Galveston (GLS) 62 57 66 61 68 / 0 0 10 60 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39
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srainhoutx
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CRASHWX wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:32 am Srain...do you see connections to 66 / 76 / 77 as far as cold invasion?
Analogs are a great tool when inspecting what a long range patterns may bring, but there are far more moving parts in the Hemispheric Pattern that will determine what our sensible weather may bring. MJO is a big factor and any Westerly wind burst that could develop as well as the rather well advertised Sudden Stratospheric Warming and potential of very high altitude wind reversal that may totally break down the Polar Vortex. That said there are growing indications the various Hemispheric Teleconnection Indices will be more favorable for delivering cold air much further South into North America later this month into January. I will say that many a heart of the Winter Weather lover has been broken by the various computer model schemes predicting cold and winter weather that end up somewhere else, so caution is advised... ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sau27
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I am going to be out in Fredericksburg for a conference Thursday and Friday, so hopefully that low will drop far enough south to make a short snow-chase possible. :P
harp
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….aaand, it's gone.....
cperk
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harp wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:03 am ….aaand, it's gone.....
We have about another 50 or so runs before Christmas it will probably be back. :)
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