December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

2018 will end with wet and cold weather.

Surface cold front has pushed offshore overnight allowing a colder air mass to settle over the region with temperatures currently in the 40’s. The next upper level trough over the SW US will begin to move eastward allowing a costal trough and coastal low to develop along the TX coast over the weekend. Surface cold dome is fairly shallow and 850mb winds will turn S and SSW late today and tonight and “overrun” the low level cold air mass allowing moisture and lift to increase over the area. Lift is more general and sloping along isentropic surfaces instead of the more convective lift associated with the system Wednesday night. The result will be an increase in clouds from SW to NE this afternoon and then the formation of patchy light rain and drizzle tonight in early Saturday. Coastal trough will promote NE surface winds helping to lock in the cold air mass at the surface. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s for the entire weekend with cold air advection, clouds, and rain.

Mainly light rain, drizzle, and fog Saturday as lift is gentle over the area. Coastal low formation intensifies and moves up the TX coast Sunday night into Monday morning. Lift becomes increasingly stronger and moisture values peak Sunday night. Light rain will transition to more convective type showers and elevated instability may result in some thunderstorms…especially Sunday night. Think the warm sector air mass will remain offshore, but could get close to the coast Sunday night with some near surface based storms. Will need to keep an eye on the track of the coastal low for any potential inland movement of both heavier rainfall or any slight severe risks.

Storm system will move east of the area New Year’s Eve with a drier air mass working southward. A modified arctic air mass will push southward on New Year’s Day with much colder conditions overspreading the region. Yet another upper level system will approach TX around the 2/3 of Jan with some additional precipitation chances. A much colder air mass will be in place at that time especially by Wednesday morning. For now will keep everything liquid with additional light rainfall or drizzle around the 2/3, but will need to closely watch temperature profiles for the middle of next week especially over our N/NW counties.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 1 inch appear likely Saturday-early Monday with some additional lighter total for the middle of next week. While these amounts of rainfall are not likely to cause any sort of significant flooding concerns, flood waves on area rivers are moving downstream from upstream locations and many watersheds are still in the response (rising) portion of the event from yesterday morning and will not crest until this weekend or early next week. Current thinking is that the weekend rainfall will maintain and extend the ongoing flood waves and recession times, but not likely to result in any new significant rises.

Hydro:

Watersheds continue to respond to the rainfall event from yesterday with several points now in flood or forecast to reach flood over the weekend.

Trinity River:
Moderate to major flooding is forecast at Liberty with minor flooding at Moss Bluff. River will remain above flood stage through all of next week.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is starting a secondary rise this morning at Plum Grove and New Caney as upstream flows from the Cleveland area move downstream. Minor flooding is expected at New Caney (FM 1485) this weekend. The river should fall below flood stage late Monday or early Tuesday.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River has leveled off near flood stage overnight, but will begin a secondary rise today as upstream flows from Lake Creek progress downstream and reach US 59. Minor to moderate flooding is expected along the river downstream of US 59 with the main impacts being to low lying roads near the river and access to any elevated homes along the river.

Navasota River:
Moderate flooding is in progress and expected along the entire channel due to inflow run-off and reservoir releases from Lake Limestone.

Brazos River:
Significant inflows from the Navasota River will be moving downstream. At this time no flooding is expected at Hempstead or Richmond…although the river will be very high. Minor to moderate flooding is expected in Brazoria County at Rosharon through much of next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Everyone, stay dry!!
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I'm not very excited about the wintry weather chances here for Wednesday. I just don't think the dewpoints are going to be low enough to allow for much in the way of wet bulbing. I'll watch it but it looks like the profiles have warmed in recent model runs.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Awesome refreshing weather this morning! Went for a 10 mile run.
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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Reports of snow pellets and some sleet mixed with rain across portions of N Central Texas not too far away from Ft Worth/Dallas. Another little surprise not expected today.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Kingwood36
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:56 am Reports of snow pellets and some sleet mixed with rain across portions of N Central Texas not too far away from Ft Worth/Dallas. Another little surprise not expected today.
Just goes to show you that the models are not the gospel always lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
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What a perfect winter day. Watching Football on the back porch with Chili and a lot of Blantons!
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srainhoutx
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Saturday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Cold and increasing wet pattern has set in over the region.

Surface trough has developed over the NW Gulf allowing moisture to move northward and over top of the cold surface dome. The result has been a solid cloud deck and recently an increase in radar echoes along the coast. Moisture and lift will slowly increase tonight into Sunday and expect an increase in rounds of light rain and showers moving NE across the area. Upper trough over the SW US moves across TX on Sunday night allowing the surface trough/low to become better organized and move ENE up the TX coast. This will result in better instability and a chance for a few heavier showers and even thunderstorms Sunday night. Surface temperatures will remain locked in the 40’s through early Monday with cold NE surface winds and increasing rain allowing really no surface heating.

There has been little change to the rainfall totals a widespread .5 to 1.5 inches especially N of I-10 looks most likely tonight-early Monday. Skies will rapidly clear Monday with highs warming into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. This warm up will be short lived.

Jan 2-3:
Modified arctic air mass will surge down the plains and across the region late NYD with temperatures falling into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s under cold air advection. Yet another upper level trough will dig down into the SW US and then eject across TX Wednesday into Thursday. Strong isentropic lift will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening over top of the surface cold dome. Looks like highs on Wednesday may struggle to reach 40 over much of the area with increasing clouds and cold air advection. Overall incoming air mass is not overly cold (this is not a true arctic air mass nor Siberian in nature). However it appears that temperatures could fall toward the freezing mark Wednesday night into Thursday morning around the College Station down toward Columbus area. ECWMF continues to trend colder with surface temperatures while the GFS keeps most areas in SE TX above freezing. The period certainly looks wet with both the ECWMF and GFS showing widespread precipitation developing late Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning. For now will keep everything liquid over SE TX as global models are not in great agreement on surface temperature profiles and most keep the freezing line just NW of SE TX Thursday morning (toward the I-35 corridor). With that said, will need to pay close attention to model trends over the next few days especially NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville where it is possible that surface temperatures could dip toward freezing.

Still plenty of time to watch the temperature trends and adjust the forecast as needed.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Went outside earlier to get the grill ready and light a fire. Had no idea it was going to be so cold and windy out there this evening. We won't be having company out on the patio tonight - will be watching the games inside for sure. Pretty chilly out there.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:36 am Awesome refreshing weather this morning! Went for a 10 mile run.
Ditto!
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Ptarmigan
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:00 am
srainhoutx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:56 am Reports of snow pellets and some sleet mixed with rain across portions of N Central Texas not too far away from Ft Worth/Dallas. Another little surprise not expected today.
Just goes to show you that the models are not the gospel always lol
So true. They do not take the localized weather into account.
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