December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:52 pm BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018
Pfft... I’m in absolute heaven right now. ;)

Headed to the ranch in Weimar to go hunting. Perfect weather for it.
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srainhoutx
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Good to see the sun shining and the winds relaxed after the last storm system. Quiet weather is ahead for the weekend with seasonal temperatures, so get out and enjoy if you can. Our next weather maker looks to cross the Region next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is some uncertainty regarding any rainfall that may occur. Another Pacific front arrives for the second half of next week.

Very early Christmas Day Outlook suggest near normal temperatures and possibly a chance of rain as another potential weather maker arrives Christmas Eve or so. That Christmas forecast will obliviously need fine tuning as we get a bit closer.

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jasons wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:52 pm BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018
Fabulous! I miss Summer.
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Looks like enjoyable conditions will persist for the next couple of days before another cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A slight chance of rain will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, but otherwise not much in the way of exciting weather is expected for the next 7-10 days. Christmas still looks rather tame with some models even indicating well above normal temperatures. While it is still too early to say anything for sure, I do suspect near normal or slightly above normal temperatures are looking more and more likely for the south.

Looking even further ahead, models are consistent with showing a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) during the last part of the year. The placement of these events will need to be monitored as cold air could filter southwest into the United States. This is showing up a little on some long range charts and will be something we continue to monitor into the New Year.

Until then enjoy the pleasant weather and get outside if you can. Some beautiful weather we are currently seeing!


Friday Morning Dew-points:
gfs_Td2m_scus_22.png


Possible SSW late this month?
epsmean10hPa60N.png
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From Larry Cosgrove this morning:

But I suppose it all boils down to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that is projected by ALL of the numerical models after December 25. If the 10MB level hike in temperatures is skewed and strong as is shown by the sample GFS depiction on New Year's Day (favoring north to south transport or air from Siberia, impressive high latitude ridging and a storm track along the southern and eastern tier of the U.S.), then an elongated cold wave will take place. SSW signatures are notoriously hard to ascertain, however, so it is not a given that the weather for Barrow AK will be magically transported into Beaumont TX. But when you put the whole list of features that will interact next month, the colder look of the CFS and ECMWF (surprise), and the repeatedly dubious forecasts for "the big warm-up" this month, then winter has more than a chance to come back in a big way into the nation.

We should know what is up by Christmas Day. I do not know about you, but...I could stand to see a majestic ice and snow storm followed by a barrage of rarefied Arctic air. And all the way, I will play "Baby It's Cold Outside", and have a big laugh. Ho-ho-ho-ho, anyone?
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jasons2k
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What a beautiful day! Looks like great weather this week for December. No freezes and in the 60’s - I can come out of hibernation for awhile :)
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Today will be similar to yesterday with streaming high clouds and temps in the mid to upper 60s. The next disturbance and frontal system will move across SE TX Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with scattered showers. The passage of the front will bring more nice weather Thursday through Saturday.
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The new FV3 GFS and the old GFS are 10-15 degrees apart for Christmas Day and world's apart for the end of next week and through New Years.

The new GFS makes more sense as it would line up with the MJO moving into 6-7-8 and its a bit amplified.

Models have a 25-35 degree temp difference New Years Eve weekend and into the second.
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Between now and Christmas and New Years should be interesting.
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Old GFS starting to move towards FV3. Arctic gets unleashed right down the plains leading up to New Years.

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The 00Z NAM solutions suggest our Region may see a round of non severe thunderstorms tomorrow night into Early Wednesday. Some locations may see an inch of rain with some isolated totals approaching 2 inches. A Pacific cold front pushes through bringing some chilly air with low temperatures in the upper 30's to low 40's Friday morning. Another storm system looks to arrive near Christmas Eve/Christmas Day with the possibility of additional rain chances.
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A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of SE TX until 9AM this morning. Give yourself some extra time for your morning commute. Skies will be mostly cloudy by this afternoon with showers possible tonight and Wednesday morning. The next cold front arrives Thursday morning with more sun along with gusty winds especially along the coastal areas.
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The fog is extremely dense this morning. I see Crosby ISD has delayed the start of school for students this morning by one hour. Drive carefully!
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The overnight guidance suggests the possibility of a very unsettled and potentially stormy period beginning near Christmas Day and continuing until the last weekend of December. A very deep Western trough looks to develop sending multiple Pacific storms into our Region. The first storm may bring a myriad of weather worries to Texas as both warm and cold sector moisture with a possibility of some severe weather across portions of S Central, SE and East Texas and wintry mischief in the cold sector. The longer range guidance has been waffling on this idea for several days and being beyond the 5 Day range, it's something to monitor during the busy Christmas Holiday period.
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12182018 06Z 186 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

First main aviation hazard will be dense fog across much of SE
Texas. Fog should improve 15-17Z as winds increase later this
morning going into the afternoon. Ceilings should then develop
later this evening into the overnight. Second main aviation
concern will be MVFR ceilings overnight with showers as the next
storm system approaches. There could be a few isolated TSRA but
not enough confidence to put in TAFs yet. Ceilings could also go
to IFR but think MVFR more likely at this point. Still these are
issues that can be addressed with future TAF updates to better
nail down timing and details.

Overpeck
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CRASHWX
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Cold signals seem to clustering to a solution that could spell Burrrr! Active sub jet could make it a very interesting January!
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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12z FV3 absolutely crushes west TX with cold and snow.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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CRASHWX wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:34 pm Cold signals seem to clustering to a solution that could spell Burrrr! Active sub jet could make it a very interesting January!
Buckle up in January....
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srainhoutx
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Lots of weather excitement ahead as we end December and begin January 2019! Possible significant Hemispheric Pattern Change, Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event and a split of the Polar Vortex. Perhaps someone can start a January Topic
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