December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

jasons wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 pm My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:54 pm
jasons wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 pm My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.
No, we are zoned for Kaufman.

Hope you enjoyed the show. They are fun to watch! But wow, they grow up so fast.
User avatar
CRASHWX
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
Contact:

harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

CRASHWX wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:48 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
Just watch the Indian Ocean. When the thunderstorm activity in that area starts decreasing then watch out for cold across the US.
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

CRASHWX wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:48 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.
User avatar
CRASHWX
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
Contact:

Yes I watch joe’s free daily videos and Saturday report. I usually plan my vacations around his game plan. Be interesting to see if his theory pans out on the cold showing up by Christmas and going gang busters January and February
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I dont put much faith in overall the GFS and even littler faith in JB...just my opinion snd weather watching for years...
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

I'm not getting into bashing anyone. I'll just refer back to my original question.
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

OH didn't mean to bash just talking out loud LOL
Stay warm everyone!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

JB is too east coast biased because he lives in Pennsylvania, but overall I think he’s alright.
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

So...no wintry mix for us?
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:42 pm So...no wintry mix for us?
We’ll probably see some winter weather events over the next 3 months, but not tonight lol not even close tbh.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:54 pm
CRASHWX wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:48 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.
Folks cut AccuWeather checks, and their forecasts are terrible. TWC is not much better.

JB's hit and miss, but entertaining. A lot better at weather than climatology!
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
Hey Harp,

In general, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is where you have very strong warming in the Stratosphere. Sometimes up to 50 degrees celcius. This, as a result, can really weaken upper-level flow and reverse the prevailing wind direction, especially for the higher latitude locations. Eventually (after a couple days to weeks) this can influence weather over parts of Europe and North America in particular. Some of the bigger cold events occur when this happens. While forecasting temperatures in the stratosphere have improved a lot over the years, it still can be difficult to forecast the impacts to the lower latitude because of how long it can take to propagate south.

Models do indicate an SSW event is possible towards the end of the month, but the impacts might not be felt until closer to New Years. At that point who gets impacted the most comes into question, and a lot of the models indicate the east coast could see more impacts than central/west U.S. I also included some links below going into more detail and a basic forecast map. Sorry if the explanation felt rushed, been a busy couple days and I can explain more in detail later if you want.

More Info

Forecast
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:42 pm So...no wintry mix for us?
May see a pellet or two but that is probably about it. The warm pocket is deeper than models were indicating earlier plus surface temps are going to be so warm. Most of the actual winter precip will stay over Central and North Texas.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

Andrew wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:49 am
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
Hey Harp,

In general, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is where you have very strong warming in the Stratosphere. Sometimes up to 50 degrees celcius. This, as a result, can really weaken upper-level flow and reverse the prevailing wind direction, especially for the higher latitude locations. Eventually (after a couple days to weeks) this can influence weather over parts of Europe and North America in particular. Some of the bigger cold events occur when this happens. While forecasting temperatures in the stratosphere have improved a lot over the years, it still can be difficult to forecast the impacts to the lower latitude because of how long it can take to propagate south.

Models do indicate an SSW event is possible towards the end of the month, but the impacts might not be felt until closer to New Years. At that point who gets impacted the most comes into question, and a lot of the models indicate the east coast could see more impacts than central/west U.S. I also included some links below going into more detail and a basic forecast map. Sorry if the explanation felt rushed, been a busy couple days and I can explain more in detail later if you want.

More Info

Forecast
Thank you very much for the explanation.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Got some light ice pellets/graupel on i-10 near bunker hill about 10 minutes ago.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
christinac2016
Posts: 115
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:18 pm
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

All I’m seeing in the woodlands is drizzly rain.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Looking at Christmas, nothing really shouts "interesting" weather. Models are indicating an omega block to occur over the western half of the U.S. in the next couple of days and shove any cold air east before finally shearing out and a zonal flow sets up. Looking at the NAO and AO also indicates not much is expected until after Christmas (think more towards the New Year). While there is still plenty of time for models to adjust, nothing synoptically really indicates a strong Meridional flow that could create winter weather for the state. I think the CPC's forecast of neutral temperatures across much of the United States is looking pretty good so far. I know there has been a lot of talk about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, but that doesn't really look likely until late December and impacts may not be felt until January.
814temp.new.gif
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Post Reply
  • Information