December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[MontgomeryCoWx]

FV3 finally picks up on the Arctic Air coming around New Years. At 300 hours onward you can see it bleeding south and at the end of the run (12/30), Amarillo is sitting in the teens and Abilene is at 51 degrees. It's below zero for most of the plains and intermountain West. Our source region is a icebox.

It never really warms up Christmas week. Very seasonal to a somewhat below average. Christmas Day in particular, is decently below average with highs in the low 50s.

[jasons2k]

Yeah the wind is picking-up now. As they used to say ‘batten down the hatches!’

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian is running mostly seasonal towards Christmas with a trough in the east on X-mas Eve and cooler temps here. 50s and 60s for highs after today and the CCL.

GFS - boring.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There's a big disconnect between the old GFS and the FV3-GFS

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

.AVIATION...
MVFR cloud decks (associated with the deep low pressure system
that is currently moving across SE TX) are expected to persist
the rest of this afternoon and most likely into tonight (depen-
ding on the site). As this system slowly lifts to the E/NE dur-
ing the overnight hours, we should see CIGS improving from the
west and south...along with a decrease of the strong and gusty
W/NW winds also associated with this system. VFR conditions to
prevail across SE TX by mid/late Sat morning. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/

The main weather story today will continue to be the evolution of
the upper level low over east Texas and gusty northwest winds as
a result. Winds have not increased quite as much since cloud cover
is limiting heating and resulting mixing in the boundary layer.
Wind advisory for the coastal counties and areas just inland looks
on track. Visible satellite shows some breaks in clouds to the
west but wrap around moisture from the upper low may bring back
cloud cover. This will make the temperature forecast tricky for
today as well. Temperatures were updated for today and decreased a
couple of degrees to account for cloud cover and cold advection.
Upper low will continue to cause rain and pockets of moderate rain
mainly north and east of Houston today. Upper low should track
east slowly and this will bring the rain with it so we should see
conditions improve later this afternoon and tonight. More dry air
arrives tonight which will allow for low temperatures in the upper
30s to low 40s.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 38 60 38 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 42 60 42 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 45 58 50 61 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Belmer]

Won't be visible for too much longer... but latest visible satellite shows a very localized area of a snow covered ground just south of Abilene (outlined in pink).

The upper level low is sliding off to the NE and will slowly take the strong winds with it along with the clouds. Might be able to squeeze out some sunshine this evening before the sunset (mainly west/southwest areas)... if not, beautiful weekend shaping up regardless.

[jasons2k]

Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.

I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.

There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.

He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.

He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”

Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”

Yeah, right. BS.

This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.

He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.

But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.

He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.

Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.

Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.

I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.

[CRASHWX]

Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.

I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.

There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.

He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.

He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”

Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”

Yeah, right. BS.

This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.

He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.

But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.

He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.

Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.

Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.

I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.

I think that’s a fair take on Joe Bastardi...I can agree with your take on things

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.

I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.

There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.

He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.

He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”

Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”

Yeah, right. BS.

This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.

He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.

But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.

He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.

Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.

Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.

I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.

Very fair take.

[Texaspirate11]

Wind gusts reported 41 mph around my area in the bay...power outages also

[jasons2k]

BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018

[MontgomeryCoWx]

BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018

Pfft... I’m in absolute heaven right now.

Headed to the ranch in Weimar to go hunting. Perfect weather for it.

[srainhoutx]

Good to see the sun shining and the winds relaxed after the last storm system. Quiet weather is ahead for the weekend with seasonal temperatures, so get out and enjoy if you can. Our next weather maker looks to cross the Region next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is some uncertainty regarding any rainfall that may occur. Another Pacific front arrives for the second half of next week.

Very early Christmas Day Outlook suggest near normal temperatures and possibly a chance of rain as another potential weather maker arrives Christmas Eve or so. That Christmas forecast will obliviously need fine tuning as we get a bit closer.

As a reminder, we are accepting Donations to keep our new Wx Infinity Forums operating for the new year ahead. Check out the Topic linked below for more information.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2269

[Texaspirate11]

BRRR!! That wind is biting cold!!

Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better
When birds will then begin to sing
"Oh, look down, the grass is now green!"
The smoke is drifting up from the pit
All the guests smile and say "wow, this is it!"
I can run all day, feels good outside
Then into the pool, "yippee!," I slide
No bitter chills are in store for me
Under sunny skies, I long to be
Oh, how I do not like this weather
My, how I like the spring time better

--jasons 2018

Fabulous! I miss Summer.

[Andrew]

Looks like enjoyable conditions will persist for the next couple of days before another cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A slight chance of rain will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, but otherwise not much in the way of exciting weather is expected for the next 7-10 days. Christmas still looks rather tame with some models even indicating well above normal temperatures. While it is still too early to say anything for sure, I do suspect near normal or slightly above normal temperatures are looking more and more likely for the south.

Looking even further ahead, models are consistent with showing a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) during the last part of the year. The placement of these events will need to be monitored as cold air could filter southwest into the United States. This is showing up a little on some long range charts and will be something we continue to monitor into the New Year.

Until then enjoy the pleasant weather and get outside if you can. Some beautiful weather we are currently seeing!


Friday Morning Dew-points:

Possible SSW late this month?

[harp]

From Larry Cosgrove this morning:

But I suppose it all boils down to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that is projected by ALL of the numerical models after December 25. If the 10MB level hike in temperatures is skewed and strong as is shown by the sample GFS depiction on New Year's Day (favoring north to south transport or air from Siberia, impressive high latitude ridging and a storm track along the southern and eastern tier of the U.S.), then an elongated cold wave will take place. SSW signatures are notoriously hard to ascertain, however, so it is not a given that the weather for Barrow AK will be magically transported into Beaumont TX. But when you put the whole list of features that will interact next month, the colder look of the CFS and ECMWF (surprise), and the repeatedly dubious forecasts for "the big warm-up" this month, then winter has more than a chance to come back in a big way into the nation.

We should know what is up by Christmas Day. I do not know about you, but...I could stand to see a majestic ice and snow storm followed by a barrage of rarefied Arctic air. And all the way, I will play "Baby It's Cold Outside", and have a big laugh. Ho-ho-ho-ho, anyone?

[jasons2k]

What a beautiful day! Looks like great weather this week for December. No freezes and in the 60’s - I can come out of hibernation for awhile

[Katdaddy]

Today will be similar to yesterday with streaming high clouds and temps in the mid to upper 60s. The next disturbance and frontal system will move across SE TX Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with scattered showers. The passage of the front will bring more nice weather Thursday through Saturday.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The new FV3 GFS and the old GFS are 10-15 degrees apart for Christmas Day and world's apart for the end of next week and through New Years.

The new GFS makes more sense as it would line up with the MJO moving into 6-7-8 and its a bit amplified.

Models have a 25-35 degree temp difference New Years Eve weekend and into the second.

[Ptarmigan]

Between now and Christmas and New Years should be interesting.