December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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CRASHWX
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Just example on Joe...nailed Harvey, Sandy, Katrina, about every snow event in our area and did all well in advance...just my opinion he is legit but he does have pretty impressive track record and certainly is paid well by likes of some very large clients who put a tremendous amount of trust in his ability...that said after years of lurking here and other weather forums there guys on this forum that I trust just as much....again JMO
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redneckweather
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I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
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CRASHWX
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Of course many don’t like him because he represents a conservative position on climate. And I am not saying this applies anyone in specific just conversation
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unome
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redneckweather wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 am I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
I guess you missed it, it was gusting up to 32mph at Montgomery County Airport yesterday evening

Conroe is currently west at 10 https://www.weather.gov/hgx/

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
451 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

...24 Hour Peak Wind Reports...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date

...Texas...

...Austin County...
San Felipe                   33 MPH    0713 PM 12/13

...Brazoria County...
1 ESE Freeport               37 MPH    0808 PM 12/13
1 NE Quintana                36 MPH    0824 PM 12/13
9 SW Jones Creek             36 MPH    0829 PM 12/13
Clover Field Airport         35 MPH    0845 PM 12/13
6 SSE Danbury                34 MPH    0928 PM 12/13
4 NW West Columbia           32 MPH    0745 PM 12/13
Brazoria County Airport      31 MPH    0340 AM 12/13
3 SW Alvin                   24 MPH    0833 PM 12/13
1 S West Columbia            20 MPH    0826 PM 12/13
2 ENE Fresno                 19 MPH    0847 PM 12/13
Lake Jackson                 16 MPH    0920 PM 12/13
West Columbia                11 MPH    0905 PM 12/13

...Brazos County...
Easterwood Field Airport     35 MPH    0751 PM 12/13
Coulter Fld Ap               30 MPH    0655 PM 12/13
2 ESE Bryan                  23 MPH    0708 PM 12/13
1 S College Station          20 MPH    0415 PM 12/13

...Burleson County...
4 NNE Snook                  27 MPH    0640 PM 12/13
Caldwell                     21 MPH    0351 AM 12/14
1 SSE Somerville             11 MPH    1000 PM 12/13

...Chambers County...
8 SSW Stowell                35 MPH    0712 AM 12/13
1 WSW Old River-winfree      19 MPH    0253 PM 12/13
Anahuac                      16 MPH    0546 AM 12/13
3 SSW Mont Belvieu           15 MPH    0105 AM 12/14

...Colorado County...
6 NE Eagle Lake              33 MPH    0735 PM 12/13
4 E Weimar                   27 MPH    0645 PM 12/13

...Fort Bend County...
1 SE Missouri City           39 MPH    0823 PM 12/13
2 SW Rosenberg               36 MPH    0745 PM 12/13
Sugar Land Mun Ap            33 MPH    0812 PM 12/13
1 WNW Arcola                 30 MPH    0835 PM 12/13
3 W Rosenberg                29 MPH    0920 PM 12/13
4 WSW First Colony           28 MPH    0757 PM 12/13
2 SE Richmond                23 MPH    0801 PM 12/13
4 ENE Fulshear               22 MPH    0735 PM 12/13
Stafford                     22 MPH    0805 PM 12/13
5 SSE Katy                   20 MPH    1117 AM 12/13
3 SSE Katy                   20 MPH    0745 PM 12/13


...Galveston County...
Scholes Intl At Galveston    39 MPH    0911 PM 12/13
4 ENE Texas City             34 MPH    0535 AM 12/13
19 E San Leon                33 MPH    1245 AM 12/14
2 E La Marque                33 MPH    0957 PM 12/13
2 ENE Hillcrest              29 MPH    0511 AM 12/13
2 SW Kemah                   26 MPH    0329 PM 12/13
2 WSW Santa Fe               25 MPH    0855 PM 12/13
La Marque                    25 MPH    1045 PM 12/13
Santa Fe                     22 MPH    0855 PM 12/13
1 W Kemah                    22 MPH    1007 PM 12/13

...Grimes County...
8 SE Navasota                31 MPH    0715 PM 12/13
Navasota                     13 MPH    0650 PM 12/13

...Harris County...
Nassau Bay                   41 MPH    0856 PM 12/13
William P Hobby Airport      38 MPH    0830 PM 12/13
4 SSW Pasadena               36 MPH    0850 PM 12/13
1 SW Taylor Lake Village     35 MPH    0907 PM 12/13
2 WNW Bunker Hill Village    34 MPH    0400 PM 12/13
Houston Intercontinental     33 MPH    0821 PM 12/13
2 E West University Place    32 MPH    0835 PM 12/13
David Wayne Hooks Memorial A 31 MPH    0755 PM 12/13
7 SW Jersey Village          31 MPH    0800 PM 12/13
1 ENE Morgan`s Point         31 MPH    0930 PM 12/13
9 WNW Jersey Village         30 MPH    0757 PM 12/13
6 WSW Jersey Village         29 MPH    0803 PM 12/13
9 ESE Waller                 29 MPH    0738 PM 12/13
Webster                      28 MPH    0901 PM 12/13
2 NNW West University Place  28 MPH    0817 PM 12/13
1 NE Houston                 28 MPH    0848 PM 12/13
1 NE South Houston           28 MPH    0852 PM 12/13
2 NW Houston                 28 MPH    0846 PM 12/13
3 SSE Aldine                 27 MPH    0814 PM 12/13
5 NW Sheldon                 26 MPH    0920 PM 12/13
Clear Lake Shores            26 MPH    1145 PM 12/13
1 SSW Piney Point Village    26 MPH    0857 PM 12/13
2 S Houston                  25 MPH    0917 PM 12/13
5 NW Mission Bend            23 MPH    0800 PM 12/13
9 SW Tomball                 23 MPH    0752 PM 12/13
9 WNW Jersey Village         22 MPH    0748 PM 12/13
3 WNW Taylor Lake Village    22 MPH    0219 PM 12/13
Piney Point Village          22 MPH    0410 AM 12/14
Spring Valley                22 MPH    0800 PM 12/13
4 SSE Aldine                 22 MPH    0814 PM 12/13
3 NW Hedwig Village          22 MPH    0240 AM 12/13
2 E West University Place    22 MPH    0820 PM 12/13
3 ENE Pearland               21 MPH    0402 AM 12/14
2 NNW Waller                 21 MPH    0310 AM 12/14
Taylor Lake Village          21 MPH    0301 PM 12/13
4 WSW The Woodlands          21 MPH    0805 PM 12/13
5 N Fresno                   21 MPH    0819 PM 12/13
5 ESE Southside Place        21 MPH    0835 PM 12/13
1 NNW Hilshire Village       21 MPH    0950 PM 12/13
2 NE Pearland                21 MPH    0840 PM 12/13
3 WNW Crosby                 20 MPH    0400 AM 12/14
6 WSW Jersey Village         20 MPH    0326 AM 12/14
3 NE Jersey Village          20 MPH    1115 AM 12/13
1 N Cloverleaf               20 MPH    0854 PM 12/13
4 ENE Katy                   20 MPH    0739 PM 12/13

...Houston County...
Crockett                     21 MPH    0415 PM 12/13
9 W Crockett                 21 MPH    0416 AM 12/13
3 NE Kennard                 15 MPH    0402 PM 12/13

...Jackson County...
7 S Ganado                   44 MPH    0736 PM 12/13
9 W La Ward                  43 MPH    0751 PM 12/13
6 WSW La Ward                39 MPH    0641 PM 12/13
La Ward                      38 MPH    0647 PM 12/13
Ganado                       37 MPH    0716 PM 12/13
Edna                         33 MPH    0730 PM 12/13
Edna                         30 MPH    0629 PM 12/13
5 S La Ward                  21 MPH    0701 PM 12/13

...Liberty County...
4 NW Dayton                  24 MPH    0622 AM 12/13
4 ENE Cleveland              22 MPH    0955 PM 12/13
3 NE Splendora               17 MPH    1000 PM 12/13

...Madison County...
8 SW Madisonville            24 MPH    0611 PM 12/13

...Matagorda County...
Palacios Municipal Airport   38 MPH    0647 PM 12/13
Bay City                     36 MPH    0735 PM 12/13

...Montgomery County...
Montgomery County Airport    32 MPH    0813 PM 12/13
5 W Panorama Village         27 MPH    0845 PM 12/13
4 NNW Shenandoah             26 MPH    0903 PM 12/13
2 W Stagecoach               26 MPH    0738 PM 12/13
Oak Ridge North              18 MPH    1240 AM 12/14
5 WNW Willis                 17 MPH    0800 PM 12/13
3 WNW The Woodlands          17 MPH    0832 PM 12/13
Oak Ridge North              16 MPH    1240 AM 12/14
4 NW The Woodlands           16 MPH    0819 PM 12/13

...Polk County...
Lake Livingston              22 MPH    1015 PM 12/13

...San Jacinto County...
3 NE Coldspring              32 MPH    0430 AM 12/13
4 N Coldspring               26 MPH    0453 AM 12/13

...Walker County...
Huntsville Municipal Airport 23 MPH    0753 PM 12/13
5 WNW Huntsville             22 MPH    0906 PM 12/13

...Waller County...
6 NNE Prairie View           30 MPH    0730 PM 12/13
4 ENE Brookshire             25 MPH    0255 AM 12/14
3 W Katy                     17 MPH    0425 AM 12/14
6 W Stagecoach               12 MPH    0733 PM 12/13

...Washington County...
5 SE Somerville              34 MPH    0653 PM 12/13
Brenham                      31 MPH    0635 PM 12/13
6 ESE Burton                 21 MPH    0627 PM 12/13
4 NNE Burton                 17 MPH    0220 AM 12/14

...Wharton County...
Wharton                      32 MPH    0755 PM 12/13
Boling-Iago                  31 MPH    0743 PM 12/13
5 W East Bernard             20 MPH    0400 AM 12/14

...Maritime Stations...
1 E Quintana                 60 MPH    0443 AM 12/13
23 E Galveston               52 MPH    0955 PM 12/13
Brazos 451                   51 MPH    0815 PM 12/13
71 S Quintana                47 MPH    0840 PM 12/13
17 ESE Palacios              43 MPH    0736 PM 12/13
8 ESE Magnolia Beach         41 MPH    0718 PM 12/13
29 E Galveston               40 MPH    0110 AM 12/14
3 NNE San Leon               39 MPH    0923 PM 12/13
13 E Bayou Vista             38 MPH    1206 AM 12/14
2 ENE Galveston              38 MPH    0915 PM 12/13
4 NNE Galveston              32 MPH    0915 PM 12/13

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

.AVIATION...
Light rain showing up via radar imagery this morning circling
around the upper level low pressure system which is continuing to
shift east across SE TX. Short term guidance shows most of the
light rain ending by noon today as the system shifts further to
the northeast out of the region. Some terminals that have seen the
precipitation this morning have seen visibilities and ceilings
lower to temporary IFR/LIFR criteria. Otherwise, mostly MVFR
conditions expected through the day and into the evening across
all terminals. Winds should pick up in speed out of the W NW
becoming gusty this morning through the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions work their way from NE to SW early Saturday in the
extended portion of this TAF period, with gusts falling off and
wind speeds lowering to between 10 to 16 kts.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
At 1 AM, low pressure was located near the Arklatex with a cold
front over the west central Gulf and a secondary trough of low
pressure extending SW from the low across Central TX. 00z 850 mb
analysis showed a well defined low pressure system over N TX with
a trough extending south toward the middle coast. 850 mb moisture
was still plentiful over the eastern third of the state, east of
the weak trough axis. At 300 mb, a well defined upper low was also
located over N TX with a nice split in the upper level winds over
NE TX. The upper low is progged to sink SE today as the surface
low scoots to the east. Patchy light rain will accompany the upper
low as it moves across the region. The forecast soundings for
KCLL shows the lowest 5000 feet above freezing and not much in the
way of saturation at 10 C so although can`t completely rule out a
few snow flurries, feel the primary precipitation type will be
light rain or drizzle. Best rain chances should remain over the
northern third of the CWA closest to the best diffluence. Strong
CAA coupled with the cloud cover and mixing from winds will keep
temperatures very cool today with high temperatures struggling to
reach the middle 50`s.

As for the Wind Advisory, well, it`s been in effect for a while
and wind observations have been reluctant to meet Advisory
criteria. The gradient is expected to tighten later this morning
and the latest LAV/ECMWF guidance supports an increase in wind
speeds. Have reconfigured the Wind Advisory to remove some of the
far NW counties and start the Advisory at 17z and continue it
through 23z. Areas close to the Gulf/Bays should have very strong
winds this afternoon. As for Harris County, it`s a large county
and the stronger winds will be near KHOU toward the bay. The NW
half of the county will probably stay below Advisory criteria.

Clouds will linger tonight as the upper/sfc low depart the
region. On Saturday, clouds in the morning will gradually erode
as weak high pressure builds into south central TX. The high will
reside over the area through Monday before shifting east Mon
night. Cirrus clouds will be streaming into the area Sun-Sun night
but no precip is expected. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Sunday into Monday as 850 temps gradually warm. Sfc winds will
remain out of the north so the warm up will be slow.

Things look a bit more interesting for Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a strong short wave moves into the southern plains.
PW values increase to around 1.25 inches and fcst soundings over
the southern half of the region become saturated. Jet dynamics
look good early Wednesday but a confluent upper flow by late Wednesday
aftn should provide a quick end to precip. The end of next week
looks dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures. 43

MARINE...
The cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has left
behind a rather strong pressure gradient resulting in moderate to
strong west northwesterly winds. The upper level low pressure system
will continue to skirt SE TX pushing off to the northeast later this
morning and into the afternoon hours. Therefore, the pressure
gradient should slacken throughout the day and the moderate to
strong west northwest wind should become more moderate northwesterly
winds by the afternoon hours. Gale Warnings have been canceled for
both Matagorda and Galveston Bays as observations have remained
below criteria and global guidance has also trended lower in the
most recent runs. Small Craft Advisories have been substituted in
place of the Gale Warnings across both bays. Gale Warnings remain in
effect across the Gulf waters with the strongest winds and highest
seas remaining in the western offshore waters this morning. Both
winds and seas should lower throughout the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Later this afternoon, Gale Warnings will transition
into Small Craft Advisories across the Gulf waters through Saturday
morning.

These west to northwesterly winds will also result in low tide
levels with water levels falling between -1.0 to 1.5 feet below
MLLW. Impacts will likely be felt during the low tide cycle this
afternoon. Low Water Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM this
evening for both Matagorda and Galveston Bays.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 40 60 38 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 43 60 42 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 47 58 50 61 / 20 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...08
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srainhoutx
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Upper low passed over the Northern half of SE Texas and is nearing the Sabine River. What a difference a day makes. It's cold and blustery out there with wind chill values in the upper 20's to 30's. Bundle up!
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jasons2k
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unome wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:43 am
redneckweather wrote: Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 am I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
I guess you missed it, it was gusting up to 32mph at Montgomery County Airport yesterday evening.
Once.

You have to admit, this didn’t quite pan out like expected. The front was supposed to come through during the day with crazy winds. Didn’t happen. We left our concert about 7 and it was dead still calm outside. I was wondering “what the heck??”

The front and winds didn’t arrive until after 7, after dark, and so the winds were not as intense as expected. Sure there were some decent gusts but this was not quite what was advertised...
Andrew
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Some examples of bright banding northeast of Conroe currently as the dry snow starts to melt around 2-3kft in the air. That is where your hydrometeor classification is showing more of wet snow/graupel and more returns are reflecting back towards the radar. Not exactly a textbook example but still cool to see.

Screen Shot 2018-12-14 at 08.57.40.png
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LightningBolt
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A cold, light mist here with calm winds. Definitely some comfort food (perhaps chili or chicken & dumplings) is on the menu for today.

Cheers, everyone! 8-)
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Texaspirate11
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Brisky gray overcast by the bay.. Wind advisory and gales up!!!!
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