December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 pm My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:54 pm
jasons wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 pm My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.
No, we are zoned for Kaufman.

Hope you enjoyed the show. They are fun to watch! But wow, they grow up so fast.
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CRASHWX
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harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
Cpv17
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CRASHWX wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:48 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
Just watch the Indian Ocean. When the thunderstorm activity in that area starts decreasing then watch out for cold across the US.
harp
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CRASHWX wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:48 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:20 pm I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.
I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.
Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.
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CRASHWX
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Yes I watch joe’s free daily videos and Saturday report. I usually plan my vacations around his game plan. Be interesting to see if his theory pans out on the cold showing up by Christmas and going gang busters January and February
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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Texaspirate11
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I dont put much faith in overall the GFS and even littler faith in JB...just my opinion snd weather watching for years...
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harp
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I'm not getting into bashing anyone. I'll just refer back to my original question.
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Texaspirate11
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OH didn't mean to bash just talking out loud LOL
Stay warm everyone!
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