December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
sau27
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sambucol wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:22 pm Will we have high winds with this?
Seems unlikely on a widespread basis. Locations closer to the coast seem to have a better shot at thunderstorms and possible spin up tornadoes, but even with that the threat looks to be fairly minimal.
stormlover
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Looks like a pretty significant event
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sambucol
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sau27 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:42 pm
sambucol wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:22 pm Will we have high winds with this?
Seems unlikely on a widespread basis. Locations closer to the coast seem to have a better shot at thunderstorms and possible spin up tornadoes, but even with that the threat looks to be fairly minimal.
Would those winds be likely in the Baytown area? Thank you.
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srainhoutx
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The Weather Prediction Center issues a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall across portions of S Central and SE Texas for Friday into early Saturday.
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stormlover
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Srain when is the event supposed to end? Saturday night? Saturday morning? By noon on Saturday ?
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srainhoutx
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Sambucol, Baytown and the upper reaches of Galveston Bay may need to pay attention during the early morning hours of Saturday as the Coastal low looks to be nearby. Stormlover, the trends have slowed just a tad suggesting we may not completely get the rain out of our hair until possibly midday on Saturday for some folks in SE Texas including our neighbors in the Golden Triangle.
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stormlover
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Yeah I am in the golden triangle!! Thanks
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srainhoutx
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stormlover wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:31 pm Yeah I am in the golden triangle!! Thanks
This would be a perfect time to Update your profile and location in your user control panel. That helps our Pro Mets and other folks get a general idea where you are located... ;) Cheers!
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harp
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Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
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harp wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.
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CRASHWX
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Seen situations like this dump 6-8 inches in a very short period of Time and create tough road conditions...worry about homes that are susceptible to situational flooding...ie...rains a great deal in a short period and water rises in the streets and gets into houses. Flooding where storm drains are over whelmed.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.
Ditto. Modoki El Niño’s are different from your traditional ones. This winter has plenty of potential for winter weather.
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday afternoon weather briefing Update from Jeff:

Significant storm system to affect the region Friday and Saturday.

Widespread heavy rainfall likely with increasing threat for flooding.

There have been no significant changes to the forecast reasoning today with a strong storm system expected to impact the areas starting as early as late Thursday afternoon with scattered showers building to more significant rainfall on Friday and Friday night. Extremely moist profiles remain in play for the Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning period with near maximum forecasted PW values for early December and a fairly deep warm and saturated profile over the area which will help to maximize rainfall rates and rainfall production. WPC has upgraded a large part of the area now into a slight risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding and a portion of the area into a moderate risk (see graphic below).

Rainfall Amounts:
There have been now significant changes today with expected rainfall amounts with widespread amounts of 2-5 inches likely and isolated totals up to 8 inches or possibly even slightly higher. Rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant run-off in area watersheds given the already wet conditions that area in place. Concern is growing that the areas along and NW of US 59 will see the heaviest rainfall especially the San Jacinto River basin.

Current rainfall projections, if they verify, indicate that flooding would be possible along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, Peach Creek, Caney Creek.

Would expect significant rises…potentially to flood stage or above…on several other watersheds including the East Fork of the San Jacinto River, Cypress Creek, Cedar Bayou, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Halls Bayou, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Keegans Bayou, South Mayde Creek.

Rainfall intensities in short duration will determine how watersheds such as Brays, White Oak, Buffalo, Greens, Clear Creek respond.

Addicks/Barker: Reservoirs are not holding any water and gates are currently passing normal flows. Gates will be closed once rainfall begins.

Lake Conroe: no pre-releases will be made as this would fill the downstream river ahead of the incoming rainfall

Lake Houston: The City of Houston is monitoring forecasts and will likely lower Lake Houston up to 18 inches



Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (most of this will fall Friday and Friday night):
12052018 Jeff 3 untitled.png
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Friday-Saturday):
12052018 Jeff 4 untitled.png
[/i]
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jasons2k
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Waited until this afternoon to run in the sun and it’s still gonna be colder than a witch’s t**** in this wind!

Edited: Run was a little chilly on the face but overall it was great!
Cromagnum
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Hate that it's been beautiful for a few weekdays stuck in the office, and then a shitstorm for the weekend...so much for decorating the house, again.
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djmike
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Bring on the rains! Les’ do ‘dis!
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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It's been a beautiful 2 days in College Station. Sunny and in the 50s. No drenched sweating while walking fast or running. A/C off and sprinklers in repose.

Rainfall is leaning towards excessive still as the weekend begins. The Canadian has 5-7 inches NW of Houston. GFS still is leaning farther north with the brunt of the precip.

Image


A memorable November with a trace of snow and cool weather. The state is set for an active December.

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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:08 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
harp wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 pm Meanwhile, nothing fun on the horizon as far as winter precip is concerned.... :(
I think you can scratch anything for this winter. El Nino is a party-pooper....
:roll:

Winter started 5 days ago. In Modoki El Nino's (like this winter) with minimal solar activity, Winters are very active, and tend to really get rolling in January and February. These are the best Winters for SE Texas.

Looking at the Weeklies, late December and January look awesome. Definitely cold with at least one storm a week.

The only time El Nino affects us negatively is typically in very strong El Nino years or when region 1+2 is really warm.

Shallow arctic air and overrun with icing are typical more likely than significant snowfall. We'll see.
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CRASHWX
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Saw where the long range was setting up to look like winters of 76-77 and 77-78
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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