December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
LightningBolt
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Is the Euro still showing the potential for winter mix precip in Southeast Texas for the Jan 2-3 time frame or did it disappear the following run? :roll:
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Texaspirate11
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Hope everyone is okay...watching this from a distance...cant wait to get home to Texas
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MontgomeryCoWx
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LightningBolt wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:54 am Is the Euro still showing the potential for winter mix precip in Southeast Texas for the Jan 2-3 time frame or did it disappear the following run? :roll:
GFS and FV3 picked it up ... shows sleet accumulation
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srainhoutx
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Briefing on East & West Fork of San Jacinto River Flooding from Jeff:

Significant rainfall overnight will lead to significant rises on both the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River.

Flooding is likely on both the West Fork and East Fork starting as early as tomorrow morning and lasting into early next week.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is rising and is expected to rise above flood stage Friday morning and crest at 51.3ft (moderate flooding) on Sunday. Low lying roads near the river will be impacted and these water levels will be similar (slightly lower) than the December 7-8, 2018 event. Nearly all of the water heading into the West Fork is from significant run-off being generated on Cypress, Spring, and Lake Creeks.
12272018 Jeff 1 untitled.png
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is rising at FM 1485 and nearing bankfull at FM 2090 (Plum Grove). Heavy rainfall over the headwaters of the river will move downstream from the Cleveland area and reach Plum Grove and FM 1485 this weekend. The river is expected to rise to flood stage midday Friday and have an extended flat crest over the weekend near 60.5 ft. FM 1485 may be threatened at these levels along with low lying roads in subdivisions downstream of FM 1485.
12272018 Jeff 2 untitled.png
Other Watersheds:

Spring Creek:
Significant run-off is in progress over the upper headwaters of Spring Creek and the creek is rising along the entire channel. Hegar Rd is at bankfull this morning and near bankfull conditions will be possible along the creek downstream to SH 249 and I-45. No structure flooding is expected, but some low lying roads near the creek or that cross the creek may be impacted…especially upstream of SH 249.

Cypress Creek:
Significant run-off is in progress in the headwaters into Cypress Creek. The creek is rising and may reach near flood stage later today at Katy Hockley. Do not expect any significant downstream flooding east of Hwy 290 along Cypress Creek, although the creek will be very high as upstream water translates downstream.
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch issued for our neighbors in Eastern Louisiana and Central Mississippi
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12272018 ww0448_overview_wou.gif
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redneckweather
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I'm loving this pattern as we head into January where I believe we will have cold air to work with when these systems come across. Fingers crossed that we will be building a snowman or 2 over the next few weeks!
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srainhoutx
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Thursday weather briefing from Jeff:

Overnight storm system brought significant rainfall to areas north of I-10 with widespread 2-4 inches over many areas. Responses to area watersheds are ongoing (see hydro section below).

Active weather is moving off the coast currently with rapid clearing over much of the area NW of US 59 in response to dry air overspreading the region. Little in the way of cold air advection with this weak frontal passage…and temperatures should warm into the 70’s under sun this afternoon. Another decent day on Friday…so enjoy…because it turns cold and wet into 2019.

Stronger front will push across the area Friday while another trough sets up to our west. This trough will force the formation of a surface trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico by late Friday along the frontal boundary which slowly develops into a coastal low over the weekend and moves up the TX coast. Cold air will flow SSW on NNE surface winds late Friday into the weekend while 850mb flow out of the SSW overruns this surface cold dome yielding lift across the area. Light rain and showers will develop from SW to NE Friday evening and continue through the entire weekend. Will keep the best rain chances along and SE of US 59 along with the highest rainfall amounts as this is where the best moisture and lift is most likely. Temperatures will likely remain in the 40’s through much of the week with clouds, rain, and cold air advection from the NE.

Will need to keep a close eye on Sunday evening into Monday morning as the coastal low moves up the coast. Low may get close enough to bring some heavier rains inland during this period.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall from Friday night-Monday will average .5-1.0 inch over the region with isolated higher totals near the coast. This rainfall will be spread out over time, but grounds are saturated from recent rains and watersheds high…many of which will just be cresting (rivers) this weekend. Expected rainfall will need to be monitored closely in case totals are increased that would result in greater run-off potential. Current forecasted totals should only slow recessions or extend crests and are currently not expected to result in new rises.

Hydro:

Navasota River:
Minor flooding is forecast along much of the river into early next week

Brazos River:
Significant rise in the river from Hempstead downstream to Rosharon is expected, but currently not expected to reach flood stage at any point although Rosharon may get close.

West Fork San Jacinto:
Minor to moderate flooding is expected starting early Friday and lasting into the weekend. Low lying roads near the river and access the elevated homes along the river may be cut-off

East Fork San Jacinto:
Minor flooding if currently expected to begin midday Friday and last through the weekend. FM 1485 may be impacted along with low lying roads both downstream of FM 2090 near Plum Grove and downstream of FM 1485 near New Caney.

Trinity River:
Moderate flooding is expected at Liberty with the river reaching flood stage midday Friday and remaining in flood through the middle of next week.

Colorado River:
Significant floodwave is being generated upstream of Bastrop and this floodwave will move downstream over the next several days. Current forecast show the river remaining below flood stage at all points, but Bastrop and Smithville will be close to flood stage.
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Cpv17
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Picked up 2.15” yesterday and this morning and we were only supposed to get about 3/4”. Definitely a nice surprise! I would say the NAM 3km model did the best job.
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after an early morning wake-up from the rain/lightning/thunder, what a beautiful day it turned out to be !
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Boundary from overnight storms has pushed 60-70nm offshore. It
should get another push tonight as a reinforcing surge of drier/cool
air arrives. This incoming airmass appears fairly shallow and
winds just above the surface return from the south later in the
day tomorrow bringing a gradual return of cloudiness from south-
to-north late in the day.

A coastal trof begins developing Friday night. Moist upglide over
the trof, along with a continued sw flow aloft should allow for
precip to begin redeveloping across the area early Saturday and
expand in areal coverage thru the day Saturday and continue
Sunday. There is no real focusing mechanism per se, other than
maybe a zone of speed convergence around H85 if you squint
enough...so primarily would expect just a steady light to
occasional moderate rain thru the day Sunday.

The next western trof will continue digging southward into ncntl
Mexico then eject ne and across Texas late Sunday and Sunday night.
As this occurs, look for the coastal trof/low to be pulled inland
near or across Southeast Texas Sunday night. PW's climb to 1.3-1.5"
which is quite high for this time of year and there could now be
a boundary to focus precip upon. Too difficult to say where this
far out, but something to keep an eye on considering already wet
ground and elevated river levels...

Much like today, we'll see a wnw wind shift as the system departs
Monday morning. A stronger (dry) front will follow Monday night &
Tue. This front also looks shallow, but colder. Some guidance
indicates upglide over this front in advance of yet another
shortwave/trof. Operational GFS is dry, but ECMWF/CMC/GFS-FV3 all
show some precip developing over parts of the area Tue night and
Wed. Nudged POPs up a touch during this time period (will also
keep an eye on atmospheric temp profile)... 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several rivers/creeks are in flood, or forecast to rise into
flood in the next several days. Stay up with the latest forecasts
at water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have decreased over the bays/coastal waters this afternoon as
the line of showers/thunderstorms continues to move E/SE out of the
area. However, seas, while they have also decreased some, do remain
elevated over the offshore waters at this time. Wave heights should
fall a bit more, but the arrival and passage of a second cold front
tonight increase wind speeds/seas once again. As such, will be keep-
ing the Small Craft Advisory in place for the offshore waters until
early Fri morning. Small Craft caution flags may also be needed for
the nearshore waters late tonight/early Fri morning. Looking ahead,
light offshore winds to prevail over first part of the weekend, but
another storm system developing over the Lower TX coast is forecast
to move up to this way by Sun. Increased showers/thunderstorms will
be possible as moderate/strong onshore winds return. The next front
is expected to move in from the W/NW into our marine waters Mon aft-
ernoon or so. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 58 40 49 41 / 0 0 0 40 50
Houston (IAH) 44 63 45 54 45 / 0 0 10 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 53 62 50 55 50 / 0 0 10 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance has trended drier for this evening and tomorrow as the Winter Storm over New Mexico has deepened and appears to be meandering versus a more progressive movement that was expected a couple of days ago. Heavy snow continues across most of New Mexico with Ruidoso and Cloudcroft appearing to be the be winners. Ski Apache and Cloudcroft Ski Areas should measure snowfall by the feet for this storm and it does appear New Mexico will see additional storm systems impacting over the next week or so. Locally Sunday into Monday look like our best chance of rain possibly extending into the New Years eve Celebrations. Rainfall amounts looks less than a half inch locally, but could be higher NE of Houston. Happy New Year everyone!
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

2018 will end with wet and cold weather.

Surface cold front has pushed offshore overnight allowing a colder air mass to settle over the region with temperatures currently in the 40’s. The next upper level trough over the SW US will begin to move eastward allowing a costal trough and coastal low to develop along the TX coast over the weekend. Surface cold dome is fairly shallow and 850mb winds will turn S and SSW late today and tonight and “overrun” the low level cold air mass allowing moisture and lift to increase over the area. Lift is more general and sloping along isentropic surfaces instead of the more convective lift associated with the system Wednesday night. The result will be an increase in clouds from SW to NE this afternoon and then the formation of patchy light rain and drizzle tonight in early Saturday. Coastal trough will promote NE surface winds helping to lock in the cold air mass at the surface. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s for the entire weekend with cold air advection, clouds, and rain.

Mainly light rain, drizzle, and fog Saturday as lift is gentle over the area. Coastal low formation intensifies and moves up the TX coast Sunday night into Monday morning. Lift becomes increasingly stronger and moisture values peak Sunday night. Light rain will transition to more convective type showers and elevated instability may result in some thunderstorms…especially Sunday night. Think the warm sector air mass will remain offshore, but could get close to the coast Sunday night with some near surface based storms. Will need to keep an eye on the track of the coastal low for any potential inland movement of both heavier rainfall or any slight severe risks.

Storm system will move east of the area New Year’s Eve with a drier air mass working southward. A modified arctic air mass will push southward on New Year’s Day with much colder conditions overspreading the region. Yet another upper level system will approach TX around the 2/3 of Jan with some additional precipitation chances. A much colder air mass will be in place at that time especially by Wednesday morning. For now will keep everything liquid with additional light rainfall or drizzle around the 2/3, but will need to closely watch temperature profiles for the middle of next week especially over our N/NW counties.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 1 inch appear likely Saturday-early Monday with some additional lighter total for the middle of next week. While these amounts of rainfall are not likely to cause any sort of significant flooding concerns, flood waves on area rivers are moving downstream from upstream locations and many watersheds are still in the response (rising) portion of the event from yesterday morning and will not crest until this weekend or early next week. Current thinking is that the weekend rainfall will maintain and extend the ongoing flood waves and recession times, but not likely to result in any new significant rises.

Hydro:

Watersheds continue to respond to the rainfall event from yesterday with several points now in flood or forecast to reach flood over the weekend.

Trinity River:
Moderate to major flooding is forecast at Liberty with minor flooding at Moss Bluff. River will remain above flood stage through all of next week.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is starting a secondary rise this morning at Plum Grove and New Caney as upstream flows from the Cleveland area move downstream. Minor flooding is expected at New Caney (FM 1485) this weekend. The river should fall below flood stage late Monday or early Tuesday.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River has leveled off near flood stage overnight, but will begin a secondary rise today as upstream flows from Lake Creek progress downstream and reach US 59. Minor to moderate flooding is expected along the river downstream of US 59 with the main impacts being to low lying roads near the river and access to any elevated homes along the river.

Navasota River:
Moderate flooding is in progress and expected along the entire channel due to inflow run-off and reservoir releases from Lake Limestone.

Brazos River:
Significant inflows from the Navasota River will be moving downstream. At this time no flooding is expected at Hempstead or Richmond…although the river will be very high. Minor to moderate flooding is expected in Brazoria County at Rosharon through much of next week.
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jasons2k
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Everyone, stay dry!!
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I'm not very excited about the wintry weather chances here for Wednesday. I just don't think the dewpoints are going to be low enough to allow for much in the way of wet bulbing. I'll watch it but it looks like the profiles have warmed in recent model runs.
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Awesome refreshing weather this morning! Went for a 10 mile run.
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srainhoutx
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Reports of snow pellets and some sleet mixed with rain across portions of N Central Texas not too far away from Ft Worth/Dallas. Another little surprise not expected today.
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:56 am Reports of snow pellets and some sleet mixed with rain across portions of N Central Texas not too far away from Ft Worth/Dallas. Another little surprise not expected today.
Just goes to show you that the models are not the gospel always lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
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What a perfect winter day. Watching Football on the back porch with Chili and a lot of Blantons!
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srainhoutx
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Saturday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Cold and increasing wet pattern has set in over the region.

Surface trough has developed over the NW Gulf allowing moisture to move northward and over top of the cold surface dome. The result has been a solid cloud deck and recently an increase in radar echoes along the coast. Moisture and lift will slowly increase tonight into Sunday and expect an increase in rounds of light rain and showers moving NE across the area. Upper trough over the SW US moves across TX on Sunday night allowing the surface trough/low to become better organized and move ENE up the TX coast. This will result in better instability and a chance for a few heavier showers and even thunderstorms Sunday night. Surface temperatures will remain locked in the 40’s through early Monday with cold NE surface winds and increasing rain allowing really no surface heating.

There has been little change to the rainfall totals a widespread .5 to 1.5 inches especially N of I-10 looks most likely tonight-early Monday. Skies will rapidly clear Monday with highs warming into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. This warm up will be short lived.

Jan 2-3:
Modified arctic air mass will surge down the plains and across the region late NYD with temperatures falling into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s under cold air advection. Yet another upper level trough will dig down into the SW US and then eject across TX Wednesday into Thursday. Strong isentropic lift will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening over top of the surface cold dome. Looks like highs on Wednesday may struggle to reach 40 over much of the area with increasing clouds and cold air advection. Overall incoming air mass is not overly cold (this is not a true arctic air mass nor Siberian in nature). However it appears that temperatures could fall toward the freezing mark Wednesday night into Thursday morning around the College Station down toward Columbus area. ECWMF continues to trend colder with surface temperatures while the GFS keeps most areas in SE TX above freezing. The period certainly looks wet with both the ECWMF and GFS showing widespread precipitation developing late Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning. For now will keep everything liquid over SE TX as global models are not in great agreement on surface temperature profiles and most keep the freezing line just NW of SE TX Thursday morning (toward the I-35 corridor). With that said, will need to pay close attention to model trends over the next few days especially NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville where it is possible that surface temperatures could dip toward freezing.

Still plenty of time to watch the temperature trends and adjust the forecast as needed.
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jasons2k
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Went outside earlier to get the grill ready and light a fire. Had no idea it was going to be so cold and windy out there this evening. We won't be having company out on the patio tonight - will be watching the games inside for sure. Pretty chilly out there.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:36 am Awesome refreshing weather this morning! Went for a 10 mile run.
Ditto!
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