December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[snowman65]

I'm in!!

[srainhoutx]

Welcome to our new home! I cannot express how excited we are to be here and to have a new chapter for our Weather Community and that the old historical data has survived and is safely here in OUR Wx Infinity Forum! So many years of memories, high impact weather events as well as Members that gave so much of their time and have left us far too soon. It is all here! Andrew, your dedication and diligent work over the past 3 weeks has been nothing short of miraculous! To ALL of our Members, Followers, Lurkers and those that just get weather Updates, this Wx Infinity Forums is for YOU!

Now on to why we are here...the weather...

Warm temperatures will give way to a cool and quiet early/mid week weather pattern to that of a highly active late week/early weekend potentially stormy pattern with a myriad of weather worries a possibility. The various computer models struggle with small scale features with a storm system currently located across the North Pacific Ocean and will not begin impacting Southern California until the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. The sensible weather forecast this far out remains volatile and likely will change daily until we near the mid week timeframe. The current thinking is that a vigorous storm system will track rather far S across Southern California into Northern Mexico/Southern Arizona and on East across Central Texas and Southern Louisiana. It does appear a Coastal low/trough will develop as the major storm system approaches. Low Level Moisture and upper air dynamics increase dramatically on Thursday evening and continue on Friday. Fridays sensible weather could be very stormy with both warm sector thunderstorms and heavy rainfall while in the cold sector, wintery mischief may create a potential for significant travel trouble Friday into next Saturday. It is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the weather may bring, but we will be monitoring throughout the coming week!

[CrashTestDummy]

Well, hopefully that precip map is a little optimistic, or too far west!! I think we _just_ got to the point there is no visible standing water in the yard. Hoping to be able to mow some weeds mid-week!

[Texaspirate11]

Hello! So happy...much thanks Andrew!

[BigNorthSide]

So glad the board is still here! I have been a long time member although I rarely post. You all have no idea how much the info here has helped me over the years! Thanks to all who participate in this wonderful forum!!

[srainhoutx]

Saturday midday briefing from Jeff:

Overall pretty much a temperature forecast for the next several days as moisture has been scoured out of the area by recent frontal passages.

Temperatures today and Sunday will run near to above normal with clear skies and a dry air mass in place with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. A stronger cold front will move across the area late Sunday into early Monday with strong cold air advection and a noticeable drop in temperatures. Highs Monday-Tuesday will drop into the 50’s with lows falling back into the 30’s and 40’s over the region. Could see a light freeze Tuesday or Wednesday morning over our northern and northeastern counties. Southerly flow begins to return to the area on Wednesday with moisture deepening. Not expecting any rainfall today-Wednesday.

Late Next Week:
Forecast models including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all pointing to a fairly strong storm system digging far south into northern MX and then ejecting eastward across TX around Friday-Saturday. There are still some timing differences…although the major global models are really not that far apart from each other…pointing toward a Friday afternoon into early Saturday event. Models are however handling a surging arctic cold front differently and track of a surface low pressure system differently as one would expect at this long range. CMC is much faster with the intrusion of a shallow cold air mass down the plains and into TX and has much more winter precipitation across NC/NW TX where the GFS and ECMWF is slower and warmer. Will side with the ECWMF and GFS solutions for now, but these shallow cold air masses tend to plow southward faster than models usually suggest and this could make for a tricky temperature forecast on Friday with a warm and humid air mass near the coast and a cold arctic air mass sliding into our NW counties. Looks to be plenty of moisture with this system with the most recent GFS run showing a rainfall at IAH of around 3 inches and both the ECWMF and CMC models are also fairly wet. Formation and track of the surface low/coastal trough near the coast or inland this time may bring both a heavy rainfall and possible severe threat. Still some questions to be answered and models this time of year tend to overdo longer range depths of systems…so something to watch for the Thursday-Saturday time period.

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian sniffs out a frost on the 5th and a freeze on the 10th and the 11th. GFS brings in a potent front a week for the first half of December.

[Cpv17]

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures are running 15 to 20 cooler this morning when compared to this time yesterday. Plentiful sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the low/mid 70's today before a modified Artic cold front arrives tonight fresh on the heals of a Central/Northern Plains snow storm. Snow showers may wring out across the Texas Panhandle tonight into tomorrow, but most of Texas remains dry.

Monday through Wednesday look cool and dry across the Region. Areas N and E of Metro Houston may flirt with near freezing morning lows Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday is a transition day as a potent storm system currently located near the Gulf of Alaska drops to offshore of Southern California and begins a trek that appears to be from the Baja Peninsula across Northern Mexico into Texas and eventually on East into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast States. This storm system appears to have the makings of a Major Weather Event and likely will grab the Weather Headlines as the new week progresses. Track/timing/impacts still remain uncertain this far out, but needless to say we encourage folks to monitor the weather forecast day to day as this storm has the potential to bring a myriad of weather worries across most of Texas and beyond.

[snowman65]

starting to look like November will be a colder month than December. Hopefully January and February will bring us cold weather peeps some treats.

[Ptarmigan]

I prefer the rain to be not on the weekend. Better to be on the weekdays. Nice forum.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon computer guidance continue a theme that started last week of a potentially wet and stormy late workweek into next weekend. The general idea via the GFS, FV3 GFS (new GFS), Canadian and European models suggest areas from the I-35 Corridor to SE and E Texas into Western Louisiana may see a general 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated higher totals nearing 6+ inches where heavier storms may train. In the cold sector, the trend today has slipped the wintry mischief a tad S suggesting the Panhandle into portions of N Central Texas and extending on East across the Northern portions of the Gulf Coast States into possibly Atlanta and the Carolinas. The surface low track as of today suggest a Northern Mexico across SE Texas and near the Northern Gulf Coast into Western Florida and Southern Georgia. It is still too soon to know exact deals beyond 3 days, but the trends continue suggest a very Stormy late work week/early next weekend weather event.

[CRASHWX]

Next 10 days goes cold...how cold? Shallow Artic air is hard for models to handle. Then 15 to 20 days of above average temps...then we get a ridge migrate northwest over Alaska and cold comes back over 2/3 of the US. How long does that last...well into January.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is trending much drier for the late week system especially areas south of I-10.

[djmike]

Yayy. Loving the new site. On to wishing for some Dec fun this year!

[cperk]

This new site is great thank you Andrew and srain and others involved i may not be aware of.

[Katdaddy]

From this mornings Hou-Gal AFD:

Medium range models are still pointing to an active wx period Fri
through Sat morning...though timing/details aren`t in quite as
good of agreement as they were at this time yday. As the western
upper trough advances eastward, large scale lift will begin
increasing across the state. At the surface, we`re still looking
for a surface wave/low to eventually develop along the front and
track eastward along the boundary. This along with a strong llvl
jet flowing nearly perpendicular into the front, very high PW`s
(1.8-2") pooling in advance & favorable diffluence aloft is
pointing toward a possible heavy rain event setting up in or near
the region. Overall instability appears to be lacking, but it`s
something that`ll need to be monitored with time in regards to any
severe wx chances. The most active weather & threat areas should
generally align near where the front is situated when the sfc
wave moves across and convergence is maximized. The 00z GFS is
depicting this occurring further north, ECMWF further south than
yesterday...and I`m pretending not to see the CMC. At this point,
it`s probably best to evaluate trends versus individual model runs
as I`d anticipate seeing additional similar model wobbles in the
next few days. Hopefully they"ll become better aligned and we can
start narrowing down the threat area, should there be one, in the
mid/late week time period. It is a system that should be
monitored...

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A significant storm system is likely to impact TX late this week and this weekend

An upper level storm system currently off the NW coast of the US will dig SSE and into the SW US and N MX over the next 48 hours and then turn eastward and move across TX late this week. Surface high pressure building into the area this morning will bring fair cool-cold weather today-Wednesday. By Wednesday this high pressure will begin to move eastward allowing SE winds to bring moisture back into the area from the Gulf.

Moisture increasing rapidly early Thursday and expect to see an increase in clouds and then showers by the afternoon and evening hours.

Friday/early Saturday:
A powerful dynamic storm system will move into TX and interact with near record moisture levels over the region. Early Friday morning a slow moving cold air mass will be pushing southward through NW TX. While the surface high helping to guide this cold air mass is situated more over the Great Lakes, the density of such air masses tend to move southward faster than global models indicate…so the actual front could be deeper into the state by early Friday morning than the current global models are suggesting. Where this front is during the day on Friday will be important as it will be the focus for sustained heavy rainfall production.

Strong lift comes to bear across the region Friday into Friday night with widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Currently instability is looking limited, but experience with cool season severe weather events indicate that not a lot of instability is needed along the Gulf coast this time of year to produce severe weather. Of much greater concern is the threat for heavy rainfall as moisture levels rise to near record levels by Friday afternoon as both Gulf and Pacific moisture taps evolve over the area. PWS will increase to near 1.7-1.9 inches which is near the top maximum values for early December and represent moisture more typical of summer than early winter. Those type of moisture values combined with such a dynamic upper air system and a slow moving frontal boundary are strongly pointing toward some sort of heavy rainfall event. Additionally, the formation of a surface low pressure system near/over SE TX Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday morning also raises the threat for heavy rainfall.

There is uncertainty on where the actual frontal boundary will be located Friday and Friday night as this and the track of any surface low will support the maximum rainfall totals in that area. Currently the GFS is focusing the heaviest rainfall just north of our area while the ECWMF and CMC and across much of the northern half of SE TX.

Rainfall Amounts:
While it is still early, widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look possible with isolated much higher amounts. These totals will likely need to be adjusted in the coming days as forecast confidence increases on where the heaviest rain will fall. Rainfall amounts of this magnitude over a large area will likely result in run-off into area creeks and rivers and result in rises.

[don]

Im starting to get concerned about the heavy rainfall potential with the 0z Euro showing some parts of Harris county getting 7+ inches of rain, and the 0z CMC shows up to 11+inches of rain in some parts of Harris and Montgomery counties.

[sau27]

While we have to get thru this weekend first, all of the models seem to be sniffing an even deeper digging trough for the following weekend. Still pretty far out, but things do appear to be getting more active.