December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Front passed here about an hour and a half ago. It's cooling off now....the warm sector was fun while it lasted....
unome
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HGX did a youtube briefing, from about noonish, 20 min long, recently tweeted

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 7567056896
https://youtu.be/gq4ksMYqUBY
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 072046
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
At 2 PM, a cold front extended from just north of Cleveland to
Sugar Land to just north of Palacios. The front continues to make
slow but steady progress toward the coast. The front may stall for
a time this evening as low pressure develops along the boundary.
The low will move east and drag the front across the rest of the
CWA by late tonight. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will
continue tonight as favorable upper level winds coupled with PW
values near 1.90 inches and lift on the east side of an
approaching upper trough will be the necessary ingredients to
generate precip overnight. The rain will be heavy at times and
will maintain locally heavy rain in the weather grids. 1-3 inches
of rain has fallen today over the northern half of the CWA with
parts of Walker county receiving 3.40 inches of rain. The rain has
fallen over a long duration today and flash flooding has not been
reported. Rainfall rates are expected to increase tonight but the
movement of the front/sfc low looks a bit faster so even if
rainfall rates increase, not quite seeing the necessary duration
to generate flash flooding. Total rainfall for the event looks to
be 3-6 inches over the north, 2-4 inches central/coast with some
isolated 5 inch totals possible. Will maintain the Flash Flood
Watch areawide tonight but have shortened the duration and will
end the watch at 14z and this is still probably too long.

Rain will end early Saturday but skies will remain cloudy.
Temperatures will be quite cool on Saturday with highs struggling
to reach the lower 50`s north/upper 50`s coast. Moisture trapped
beneath an inversion will keeps skies mostly cloudy Saturday night
and Sunday. High temps on Sunday will again struggle to warm into
the lower 50`s. High pressure will build into the state on Sunday
night and skies will clear. Colder temperatures are expected by
Monday morning and a few areas will probably fall to near
freezing. A bit of a warm up on Monday as the surface high drifts
east with the warming trend continuing Tuesday and Wednesday. An
upper level trough will move across the southern plains on
Thursday and a sfc low will develop near the panhandle. Warm air
advection showers will be possible Wednesday but strong capping
will limit intensity and coverage. Lift increases on Thursday as
the upper trough deepens and showers should become more
widespread. Another cold front will cross the area next Friday
bringing colder temperatures back to the area for next weekend.
43

&&

.MARINE...

SE winds are expected to increase late this afternoon and early this
evening ahead of a cold front that will push off the mid TX coast
this evening and the upper TX coast during the early morning hours
on Saturday. Behind the front, winds will increase to advisory
levels. Decided to add the Bays to a portion of the ongoing
advisory, beginning early Saturday morning. Tides are currently
slightly above normal, but are not expected to rise to problem
levels overnight. We will be monitoring low water levels on Sunday
with persistent N/NW flow behind the front. Onshore flow will return
on Tuesday with another cold front expected late next week which
will likely produce strong offshore flow next Friday. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 50 39 50 36 / 100 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 50 54 42 52 38 / 100 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 55 57 44 52 43 / 100 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CST this evening
through Sunday morning for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CST Sunday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM CST Sunday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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jasons wrote: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:52 pm Front passed here about an hour and a half ago. It's cooling off now....the warm sector was fun while it lasted....
You could run inside Jason. I am when I get home. :)
unome
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I never noticed the "Current Observations" toward the bottom of the home page link to the ZOA, CWSU site, I really like that - the NASA satellite options rock & all the tab options are great as well

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
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tireman4
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NWS Houston Flash Flood Watch
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davidiowx
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The HRRR still looks pretty ominous for this evening and overnight..
SLM87TX
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So the Max amount I am seeing right now for the area is Huntsville with 5.1, any higher amounts anyone else has. I have had Only .85. when the main system going to move threw Conroe?
Cromagnum
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Looks like the blob is over from a Victoria to San Antonio line. Maybe this will be an inch or two of rain and call it done
unome
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making a messy evening rush commute - pack your patience !

https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/lay ... e&nmd=true

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-48

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 6556173317
Avoid or delay travel tonight if you can. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding will increase through the evening and continue overnight across southeast TX. Turn around, Don't drown! #bcswx #houwx #txwx
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don
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This is just the first round of rain the main mesoscale complex still has yet to develop, that won't push through until late tonight as cyclogenesis starts along the frontal boundary which could enhance rainfall rates also.
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don
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The rainfall rates are really starting to increase across the city...
unome
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd.php

MPD #1045
Issued: 08/0030 UTC
Until: 08/0545 UTC
Concerning: Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Image

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018

Areas affected...Central Coastal Plain of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080030Z - 080545Z

SUMMARY...Warm sector enhanced convection with potential for
repeat tracks, may lead to isolated flooding/flash flooding
through the evening and into the early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite depicted leading edge of greatest
height-falls approaching across South Texas late this afternoon.
This has led to a favorable eastward shift of the ridge axis and
placement of the warm sector across the coastal plain of Texas to
be within the right entrance to the 90kt 3H jet streak enhancing
vertical ascent and strengthening of low level inflow fairly
orthogonal to the frontal zone draped from N of ALI to VCT. This
jet was also helping to deepen a surface wave along the front
northwest of the Houston Metro area. Sfc inflow of 15-20kts near
CRP is advecting high Theta-E air (70F Tds) off the Western Gulf,
with 00Z radiosondes showing precipitable water values ranging
from 1.62 inches at LCH to 2.1 inches at CRP. While cloud cover
limited solar insolation during the afternoon, temperatures in the
mid 70s supporting 750-1250 J/kg of SBCAPEs with consistent
replenishing flow, though slowly veering with time.

Limiting factor is clearly dry antecedent conditions across the
region, though reduced soil infiltration due to transition to
winter ground conditions may support more runoff than FFG values
would suggest, still flash flooding will continue to be possible,
although limited in scale and coverage. Even the most aggressive
Hi-Res CAMs such as the GEM-Regional, HRRR and HRRR-Experimental
have been indicating another 2 to 3 inches in areas close to the
coast through 06Z.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
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srainhoutx
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Rumbles of thunder across NW Harris County now. I have just shy of 2 inches of rain in the gauge with most of that falling since 4 PM. Looks like heavy rainfall rates are developing to the W and SW as a potent jet streak approaches and the surface low deepens. Nasty night out there. Interestingly today marks the anniversary of the 1935 flood that led to the creation of the Harris County Flood Control District.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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Texaspirate11
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Lightning heavy rain in Galveston
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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Katdaddy
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Ongoing development continues to the SW of the Houston-Galveston areas. Thankfully not much impact unless you were/are in the Houston traffic. Left the Galleria area at 3PM and got home at 5PM in League City.
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unome
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Image

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
938 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018

Areas affected...East-Central TX...West-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080237Z - 080837Z

Summary...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall across
interior east-central Texas into west-central Louisiana will
continue to saturate soils and may lead to flooding.

Discussion...As of 02z, an analysis showed surface low and
stationary boundary along the Texas Gulf Coast. Aloft, broad
southwesterly flow is evident with a large area of upper level
divergence across the southern Plains. There is a narrow axis of
frontogentically forced precipitation in the 850-925 mb layer,
which is contributing to steady moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. This is occurring on the gradient of the highest PWATs,
which are maximized along the coast around 1.9". These values are
2.5-3 SD above the mean for this time of year. MUCAPE as high as
250 J/kg extends up into east-central Texas. With the mean flow
parallel to the storm motion this evening and tonight, repeated
bouts of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are expected through
09z. Finally, since mid-afternoon, areal averages of 1 to 3" has
fallen, generally east of San Antonio to College Station to
Lufkin.

In water vapor, there is another mid/upper level wave noted across
south-central Texas. As this waves moves across east-central TX
into western LA, another wave of moderate to heavy rain will move
into the area. This is likely to produce hourly rates as high as
1" with totals of 2-4" possible. This rainfall, falling on
increasingly saturated soils, for a prolonged time could result in
flooding, especially over sensitive urban and poor draining
locations.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 9285621761
HGX issues Areal Flood Advisory for Fort Bend, Harris [TX] till Dec 7, 10:15 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 1900898304
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 8, 2:15 AM CST for Trinity River near Riverside [TX] until further notice

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3591047170
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 7, 10:28 PM CST for Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box [TX] till Dec 11, 8:00 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3607816193
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 8, 7:30 AM CST for East Yegua Creek near Dime Box [TX] till Dec 9, 4:00 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3532713984
HGX issues Areal Flood Advisory for Brazoria, Matagorda [TX] till Dec 7, 10:45 PM CST
unome
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https://twitter.com/DisasterPIO/status/ ... 6774622209
UPDATE NEWS AVAILABILITY: Judge @EdEmmett will be joining @JeffLindner1 at 9:00PM at @houstontranstar @ReadyHarris to discuss MAJOR #FLOODING forecast along West Fork of the San Jacinto River. . #houwx #hounews #severewx

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status ... 4463311872
UPDATE: major flooding expected on the west Fork of the San Jacinto River. Impacts to the following subdivisions are likely: Forest Cove, Rivercrest, Northshore, Belleau Woods. Take actions now to secure property. Some of these areas will be cut off for 4-5 days #hounews #houwx

https://www.hcfcd.org/press-room/curren ... into-river
Major flooding is expected in portions of Harris County along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River at near and east of US 59 and is likely to impact the following subdivisions:

Belleau Woods
Forecast Cove
Northshore
Riverside crest

Structures in these communities on the ground will likely be impacted by the projected rise of the river and elevated structures may be cut-off for several days. The river will rise to flood threshold levels by Saturday afternoon and is forecast to reach a peak crest Monday evening. The river will remain above flood stage into Wednesday and some residents may be cut-off for 4-5 days.

Residents along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River should remain alert to rising water and changing river conditions over the weekend into next week and take immediate actions to move or secure property that is near the river. The Harris County Flood Control District Flood Operations team will continue to check the gages and water levels in San Jacinto. The Flood Control District urges all residents to monitor rainfall and bayou water levels and near real-time inundation mapping on its Harris County Regional Flood Warning System website (desktop and mobile versions) at: www.harriscountyfws.org and at the National Weather Service Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service website at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx. Be sure to also follow us on Twitter @HCFCD for live updates.
Last edited by unome on Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Katdaddy
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1015 PM CST.

* At 818 PM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain which will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Up
to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, Katy,
Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Spring Branch North, Mission Bend, Town West,
Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West, Addicks Park Ten, Spring
Valley, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
Meadows Place and Hedwig Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
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