December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[jasons2k]

I got 1.99” overnight. It was just starting to feel pleasant again so I could do without today’s cold front. At least there are no freezes in the 7-day forecast.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA will exit area TAF sites between 12-13z but additional
showers are possible through the morning but will only carry
vicinity for these. The surface low over the panhandle will be
slow to move east today and the gradient doesn`t really tighten
until tonight. Winds will be slow to increase today so pared back
wind/wind gusts until this evening. Fcst soundings show some
improvement in ceilings this afternoon before ceilings return
tonight as a strong upper level low sinks SE into the area. Could
be some patchy light rain early Friday morning as the low spins
over the region. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR/SHORT TERM [Now through Friday]...

No major changes have been made to the previous near/short term
forecast, as it continues on track with most of the rain activity
occuring now through around 12Z this morning. HiRes precip models
are finally concurrent with the current weather progression as
well.

By around 07Z, a line of showers started to roll into the west
southwest portions of the CWA. It rapidly expanded further north
and south as the line became more organized and showers
intensified with embedded thunderstorms. Currently, most of the
CWA is being affected by showers and scattered
thunderstorms...starting to clear out on the western
counties...but no severe storms have been spotted as of this
moment. These showers and thunderstorms have been moving eastward
rapidly, thus, maximum rainfall accumulations should remain below
3.00 inches for this morning. A station located Grogans Point Rd
near Red Sable Point (slightly west of I45) reported 2.80 inches
by 1030Z. Most of the local observations by this time reported
accumulations of around 0.50 to around 2.00 inches of rain and it
continues to rain, so we will be seeing higher numbers later on
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA in the next few
hours as low level temperature and moisture advection interacts
with lifting ahead of the shortwave trough.

06Z surface analysis indicated an upper level low with associated
cold front over N TX moving towards central TX. The low is
expected to move into the northern/central portions of the
forecast area after 12Z and close off while it moves across and
exit into western LA by Friday evening/night. Through 12Z Friday,
a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall continues mainly for the
eastern half of the forecast area. There is also a marginal threat
for severe weather for these areas as the combinations of
sufficient diurnal heating along with effective bulk shear of up
to around 40 KTS, strong mid to upper level jet and CAPE values of
1000 J/kg can result in some isolated strong/severe storms with a
hail threat - a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either. Once the
cold front moves across, drier air will limit any shower
activity.

Pressure gradient is expected to tighten across SE TX, but model
guidance now has lower values than yesterday. Thus, sustained
winds inland are not as high as last night. A Wind Advisory will
go into effect from 2 PM CST this afternoon and continue through
Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM...[Friday night through Wednesday]...

Winds will gradually decrease inland Friday night through the
weekend and temperatures will slightly increase. Tranquil weather
conditions should prevail over the weekend and early next week. A
slight increase in POPs is shown on Wednesday, as model guidance
indicates the presence of an upper level trough. However, this is
at the end of the forecast period and changes to the
guidance/grids will most likely occur in the next couple of days.

MARINE...

A strong onshore flow will prevail this morning as low pressure over
the Texas panhandle deepens. Seas have increased to 11 feet at bouy
19 and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this morning. The low
will move slowly across North Texas today toward the Arklatex by
evening. A tight pressure gradient on the southwest side of the low
will bring strong west winds into the coastal waters later this
afternoon. Winds will increase to around 30 knots by this afternoon
and A Gale Warning will be in effect. The stronger winds will affect
mainly Matagorda Bay and the western waters with lighter winds over
Galveston Bay and the eastern waters. Not sure the bays will reach
Gale criteria but will leave them in the warning for now. The strong
winds will persist overnight and into Friday as the low meanders
over the Arklatex through Friday morning. The low finally moves east
on Saturday and winds will begin to relax on Saturday afternoon with
a light offshore flow through late Sunday. An onshore flow will
return on Monday.

Will hold off on the Low Water Advisory for now as the west winds
don`t kick in until late today. Water levels are progged not to fall
until Friday night into Saturday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 42 49 39 59 / 20 40 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 44 52 42 59 / 50 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 46 52 45 57 / 60 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for
the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

GM...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[srainhoutx]

The long awaited compact bowling ball upper low is currently SSW of Lubbock and deepening rather quickly. The small upper low will continue to organize and become vertically stacked throughout all levels of the atmosphere as it heads generally SE toward SE Texas. This is an unusually strong and deep system that we rarely see this far South. Dynamic will be very strong and within the coma head N and W of the so called "center", strong lift may allow storms to form with possibly some rumbles of thunder. Very strong winds are currently blowing in the Lubbock area with gusts near 60 MPH and blowing snow.

[tireman4]

What Steve is alluding to..wow...just wow...

[sambucol]

When will it arrive in SETX?

[srainhoutx]

When will it arrive in SETX?

Likely early tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

Midland reporting snow and some mixture of rain/snow as well at this time. The area of wintry precipitation appears to be right below that strong Upper Low, so expected locations that are in the track of the upper air storm to have the 'best shot' of seeing any wintry mischief.

[unome]

GOES-17 Meso-2 is currently over TX

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into west TX

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 131649Z - 132015Z

SUMMARY...An area of mainly light to moderate snow with heavier snow
bursts mixed in will affect portions of extreme southeast NM into
west TX the next few hours. Combined with strong northwesterly
winds, visibility may become greatly reduced at times.

DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures are quickly filtering southward into
the southern High Plains behind a cold frontal passage. Rain has
turned to snow in several locations from HOB in southeast NM to the
Midland-Odessa vicinity in west TX. A very strong surface pressure
gradient across the region is resulting into sustained winds around
25 mph with higher gusts. Recently, ODO reported heavy snow with MAF
and MDD reporting light to moderate snow with lowered visibility to
around 2-3 miles. While snow rates may briefly be heavy, combined
with strong winds, visibility will remain lowered and could change
quickly over short distances.

The area of precipitation will continue to track eastward into the
afternoon and may change to a mix of rain/snow or all rain further
east across central TX where temperatures may be slower fall to near
freezing until later in the afternoon or early evening.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[unome]

kind of puts the winds over TX today into perspective !

https://twitter.com/NWSBrownsville/stat ... 2562788352

Fun fact: Our office has only issued 4 'High Wind Warnings' over the past 30 years, including today's. Our last 'High Wind Warning' was issued February 25, 2013 for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. #funfact #txwx #NWSBrownsville

[srainhoutx]

Short term mesoscale models suggest a track over SE Texas with the vertically stacked compact cold core upper low. The latest HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh model does suggest a wintry mixture may get very close to Austin tonight/tomorrow morning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated grids a little earlier to account for sky cover trends and
some tweaks regarding the timing of the upcoming increase of winds.
Clouds will continue to clear from the west (to east) through this
afternoon as the main system (and its associated storms) moves off
to the E/NE. These clearing skies should help in destabilizing the
airmass as the very deep low moves into the region later this aft-
ernoon. 41

&&

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Short term mesoscale models suggest a track over SE Texas with the vertically stacked compact cold core upper low. The latest HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh model does suggest a wintry mixture may get very close to Austin tonight/tomorrow morning.

What a gorgeous map.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 131904
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018


.AVIATION...
Scattered showers near Galveston still a good indication that
instability survived after this morning`s storms. Will be keeping
an eye on the possibility that more will redevelop over the areas
to the east of the UTS-IAH corridor during peak heating. Can see
what looks like ACCAS near San Marcos and AC spreading into the
CLL/RWV area at 18z. Have increased winds quite a bit as LLJ and
nose of the 700 comes in expect winds to get quite strong and
gusty. Areas southwest of the SGR/LBX area will like see very
strong and gusty winds in the 10-18z window. The last holdouts of
IFR this morning have ended near UTS/CXO and expect mainly VFR
through the afternoon with lower ceilings around 1200-2200 feet to
develop across the area after 06z. Closer to the core of the
upper low will see some light rain or showers develop and swing
through the region mainly again after 06z. Near 12z could see a
brief period at CLL for some snow flurries (well above freezing)
so just a mix in of some flakes but no accumulation...shifting
toward UTS 14-17z again no accumulation. MVFR ceilings should
prevail well past 00z 15th.
45

[Cpv17]

Beautiful day so far here. 75 degrees and sunny with a nice cool breeze. Love it!

[tireman4]

Wow..the temperature drop in Fort Worth...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 132210
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
HGX radar getting a bit more active these last few hours, but not
seeing any lightning just yet...just brief heavy rainfall. But as
it stands, the threat of strong/severe storms will be diminishing
sooner than previously thought...given the initial development of
things over the far eastern edges of our CWA...and should be mov-
ing further east out of the area before too long.

Otherwise, the warm/above normal temperatures this afternoon will
be finally giving way to cooler/windier conditions thru the even-
ing hours. And per current obs, the cold front (and its increased
winds/gusts) has moved into our western counties and will be pro-
pagating east with time. At present...no changes planned with the
going configurations with the Wind Advisory (inland) and the Gale
Warnings (over the coastal waters) for tonight thru tomorrow aft-
ernoon. The strong (deep) low pressure system responsible for all
of this is expected to move far enough to the E/NE of the area by
Fri evening and we should see much improved conditions by then.

As high pressure builds in behind this system...light north winds
along with more seasonable temperatures are forecast for the week
end. These dry conditions could last into the early parts of next
week...even as the upper ridging flattens in response to the next
upper low/trof developing out west. This system is progged to be-
gin lifting out to the E/NE by mid week and our next best chances
for rain could start Tues night, persisting through Weds night. A
rather limited window of return flow will keep POPs on the lowish
side for now, then ending with the passage of the associated cold
front early Thurs. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly and southwesterly winds developing across SETX and into the
coastal waters this afternoon. Cold front pushing eastward should
move into the coastal waters tonight boosting winds further into
near gale. After midnight strong CAA and LLJ wrapping around the
anomalously deep upper low over SETX will cause wind to jump up to
Gale force over much of the Upper Texas Coastal Waters likely
peaking either side of sunrise by around 3 hours. Window between 6-
9am looks very favorable for wind gusts of 45 to 55 knots and may
even need a Storm warning for the southwest waters. Seas will soar
to 14-18 feet with the strong winds. Winds during the afternoon
relaxing and becoming more northwesterly into the evening hours.
The strong winds will also lower tide levels and have issued a Low
Water Advisory for the Bays midnight through 6 pm. By Saturday
afternoon winds down to 15 to 20 knots.

45
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong west and northwesterly flow the next 36 hours with very gusty
conditions in the southwest areas Friday morning...wind gusts of 40
to 50 mph. Humidity though should remain at or above 40 percent
with strong cold advection and cloud cover. Some patchy light rain
overnight/early Friday will also help to keep the humidity up.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 50 39 59 39 / 40 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 51 43 60 44 / 20 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 52 53 47 60 51 / 10 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for the following zones:
Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 140011
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.AVIATION...
The central Texas upper low very evident in IR imagery will be
churning just north of the region through Friday morning. This
will be the impetus to strong westerly winds along its backside.
The morning surface gradient will become quite tight between the
high building into west Texas and the eastern-exiting low into
northern Louisiana. This gradient will produce 20 knot sustained,
gust to 30 knot, (north)westerlies through the day tomorrow. MVFR
with occasional IFR ceilings will hang in there as the near surface
layer under the 3-4k ft inversion remains saturated. The other
item of note may be early morning snow flurries mixed into the
light rain up across hubs north of the city. 31

&&

[srainhoutx]

Very gusty winds have arrived in NW Harris County. I hope folks with those inflatable Christmas Decorations have shut them down and secured them.

[harp]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.