December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[CRASHWX]

BINGO

[Katdaddy]

Showers and thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon as an upper level low and cold front approach SE TX. Some locally heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly E of I-45 overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will push away from SE TX tomorrow however a tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds Thursday night and Friday with sustained winds of 25-30MPH with gusts to 40MPH. Make sure your outside Christmas decorations are anchored well before winds gusting to tropical storm force arrive Thursday night.

[Texaspirate11]

Anybody else paying attention to Friday morning? The GFS has been very persistent in a deep, cold upper-level low passing through north central Texas. I know the profiles are marginal here but I’m beginning to think that snowflakes, maybe a light snow shower may be possible around the region very early Friday, maybe a dusting on the grass in north Texas.

The low just has a “look” about it that seems funny to me. I’m not exactly sure how this compares to the mid November snow event here because I don’t remember what the soundings looked like but with notable dry air we could get enough wet-bulbling, especially closer to the low where lift will be strongest to squeeze out some wintry precipitation. I’ll be watching the NAM and HRRR closely as they were the first and to my knowledge the only models that picked up on the mod november event.

Maybe North and NW of us - College Station to conroe - but I'll be mighty surprised if it reaches the galveston bay area.

[don]

Several of the global and mesoscale models trended further south overnight with the cold core low. Most of them now bring the system over southeast Texas with wrap around moisture. The system being so potent could have more dynamic cooling than what the models show, a fly in the ointment is surface temps but if we can get some wet bulbing that could help. While I wouldn't feel confident putting snow in the forecast, I wouldn't rule it out either as these types of systems can have surprises.

[snowman65]

Several of the global and mesoscale models trended further south overnight with the cold core low. Most of them now bring the system over southeast Texas with wrap around moisture. The system being so potent could have more dynamic cooling than what the models show, a fly in the ointment is surface temps but if we can get some wet bulbing that could help. While I wouldn't feel confident putting snow in the forecast, I wouldn't rule it out either as these types of systems can have surprises.

What kind of travel impacts could this have Friday? My daughter is traveling from Austin to C.S. Friday.

[don]

I wouldn't worry about it right now even if there is some snow it shouldn't accumulate on roads due to warm ground temps.

[Andrew]

Latest from Jeff:

Another highly dynamic storm system heading for the area.

Brief heavy rainfall and very strong winds likely.

Active weather event likely late tonight-Friday with multiple impacts across the state. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop today in response to the approach of a strong upper/mid level low out of the NW US. Southerly flow overnight has already begun to return moisture to the region and expect this increase in moisture to continue today. Lift will gradually increase today into tonight and a weak cool front/dryline feature will move across the area early Thursday morning (100am-800am). This feature will likely produce a line of thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches likely. Fast movement of the line should preclude any significant flooding concerns, but some ponding on roadways will be possible during the morning commute on Thursday. Expected rainfall should not have any significant changes to ongoing river flooding over the area given the expected low totals and fairly small spatial coverage of this event. May see a brief rise on the West Fork of the San Jacinto River given the flashly nature of Spring and Cypress Creek drainage.

Approach of the strong upper level system on Thursday will help to rapidly deepen the surface low over TX and greatly tighten the pressure gradient. A powerful low level jet will develop on the backside of the surface low pressure system over eastern TX allowing very strong NW winds to spread out of WC TX into much of the state during the afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 25-35mph are likely with frequent gust to 40-45mph especially west of a line from College Station to Bay City and then along the coast. Solid gale conditions are expected across the coastal waters and area near the coastal bend could see storm force conditions with frequent gusts over 50kts over those waters. Winds will howl Thursday night with the pressure gradient remaining tight before starting to weaken by Friday afternoon. Sporadic power outages can be expected with these kind of winds along with disruptions to aviation travel at the various airports.

Thursday night/Friday morning:
Dynamic core of the upper level low will move just north of SE TX will additional lift being generated. Air mass looks to be fairly dry in the low levels as strong NW winds scour out the moisture. Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures into the 40’s by Friday morning with wind chills well into the 30’s with the strong winds. A mixture of light snow/rain will be moving from C TX toward SE TX Friday morning in association with the cold core upper level low. Think most of this precipitation will weaken and fall apart before arriving into SE TX, but cannot rule out some flurries or sleet north of a Columbus to Hempstead to Livingston line Friday morning. With surface temperatures remaining well above freezing…anything that falls will result in NO impacts.

Marine:
Extremely hazardous marine conditions will be developing on Thursday and lasting in Friday. Gale watch is up for all waters including Matagorda and Galveston Bays and expecting sustained winds of 30-35kts with frequent gusts of 40-45kts over the upper TX coastal waters and even the inland bays. Winds may be a bit higher toward Matagorda Bay and offshore the coastal bend with gust over 50kts. Seas will builds 12-14 feet quickly offshore Thursday night and 6-7 feet in the inland bays. Visibility will reduce offshore in blowing sea spray. Small craft should remain in port Thursday into Friday. Winds will gradually weaken on Friday as the pressure gradient slackens.

Strong offshore flow will drive water level below normal and a Low Water Advisory will be in place Thursday night and Friday as winds push water out of the inland bays. Looking at tides falling 2-3 feet below normal in the Ship Channel and NW sections of Galveston and Matagorda Bays which will produce hazardous marine travel for vessels and increase the risks for groundings.

[Andrew]

Several of the global and mesoscale models trended further south overnight with the cold core low. Most of them now bring the system over southeast Texas with wrap around moisture. The system being so potent could have more dynamic cooling than what the models show, a fly in the ointment is surface temps but if we can get some wet bulbing that could help. While I wouldn't feel confident putting snow in the forecast, I wouldn't rule it out either as these types of systems can have surprises.

What kind of travel impacts could this have Friday? My daughter is traveling from Austin to C.S. Friday.

There will be no impacts across SE Texas. Even Austin should be good.

[harp]

Well, that ULL didn't pan out on this run....

[sau27]

I'm out in Fredericksburg for the next 2 nights. The 12z NAM really hammered that area with some snow, but the GFS and EURO don't seem to be so convinced. If it gets close enough I plan on chasing and will post photos here if I catch anything.

[harp]

Well, if there is very cold air that's supposed to come down at the end of the month, and into January, it still hasn't shown up on the GFS. The latter part of each run is completely different and no arctic air..... *sigh*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well, if there is very cold air that's supposed to come down at the end of the month, and into January, it still hasn't shown up on the GFS. The latter part of each run is completely different and no arctic air..... *sigh*

FV3 GFS has chilly air and the indices point toward a below normal time period. The old GFS can’t make up its mind between chilly or seasonal.

[Katdaddy]

Showers and thunderstorms are expected during the early morning hours ahead of the upper level low. A few of the storms could become severe across along and E of I-45. Some brief heavy rain will also be possible but the storm motion will be rapid. The strong winds will be the highlight beginning tomorrow afternoon into Friday. Wind Advisories in effect for all but NE portions of SE TX with Gale Warnings for the coastal waters. Winds gusting 30-40MPH inland and possible up to 50MPH over the coastal waters. Again make sure your Christmas decorations are anchored. I would not like to see Snoopy blowing over the house but the Grinch maybe.

[Katdaddy]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
855 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are still expected to develop
by midnight and especially during the overnight hours and then spread
eastward through or shortly after sunrise. Overall strong/severe
threat looks to be on the low side (see SPC`s 654 PM Day 1 Convective
Outlook for more details). Current POP configuration looks to be
mostly on track. Cold front will move through the area during the
day tomorrow with increasing winds developing in its wake as the
pressure gradient tightens (Wind Advisory and Gale Warning will go
into effect tomorrow afternoon).

[Cpv17]

Latest HRRR has some pretty good storms coming through overnight. Some areas could easily pick up another inch of rain.

[javakah]

That HRRR is looking too slow.

[Katdaddy]

Rain and thunderstorms E of I-45 moving away from the Houston-Galveston areas and into SW LA this morning. The front will move across SE TX this afternoon bringing strong gusty winds this evening and overnight especially along the coastal areas. The weekend weather is looking very nice with mostly sunny skies and highs the upper 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s.

[snowman65]

I'm going on record to say that this will be the most mundane/boring winter in many years. This will make colder weather haters happy.....lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm going on record to say that this will be the most mundane/boring winter in many years. This will make colder weather haters happy.....lol

You’ll be wrong. There’s nothing that suggests that in the long range pattern or weeklies.

And you clearly don’t remember 2015 and 2016 Winters which were terrible. 2008-2014 Winters were great for the most part.. I think this Winter will compare to 2009 and 2013 mainly because of the warm waters in NPac and help from a Weak to moderate Nino.

[unome]

Sustained wind reports in the 40s in the panhandle - highest reported here at the moment is 48 mph in Happy, TX, south of Amarillo

WPC's Local Storm Reports: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr ... autoreload
Amarillo weather conditions: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.p ... AMA&num=24
ZFW-Fort Worth ARTCC: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw