December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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This is just the first round of rain the main mesoscale complex still has yet to develop, that won't push through until late tonight as cyclogenesis starts along the frontal boundary which could enhance rainfall rates also.
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don
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The rainfall rates are really starting to increase across the city...
unome
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd.php

MPD #1045
Issued: 08/0030 UTC
Until: 08/0545 UTC
Concerning: Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Image

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018

Areas affected...Central Coastal Plain of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080030Z - 080545Z

SUMMARY...Warm sector enhanced convection with potential for
repeat tracks, may lead to isolated flooding/flash flooding
through the evening and into the early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite depicted leading edge of greatest
height-falls approaching across South Texas late this afternoon.
This has led to a favorable eastward shift of the ridge axis and
placement of the warm sector across the coastal plain of Texas to
be within the right entrance to the 90kt 3H jet streak enhancing
vertical ascent and strengthening of low level inflow fairly
orthogonal to the frontal zone draped from N of ALI to VCT. This
jet was also helping to deepen a surface wave along the front
northwest of the Houston Metro area. Sfc inflow of 15-20kts near
CRP is advecting high Theta-E air (70F Tds) off the Western Gulf,
with 00Z radiosondes showing precipitable water values ranging
from 1.62 inches at LCH to 2.1 inches at CRP. While cloud cover
limited solar insolation during the afternoon, temperatures in the
mid 70s supporting 750-1250 J/kg of SBCAPEs with consistent
replenishing flow, though slowly veering with time.

Limiting factor is clearly dry antecedent conditions across the
region, though reduced soil infiltration due to transition to
winter ground conditions may support more runoff than FFG values
would suggest, still flash flooding will continue to be possible,
although limited in scale and coverage. Even the most aggressive
Hi-Res CAMs such as the GEM-Regional, HRRR and HRRR-Experimental
have been indicating another 2 to 3 inches in areas close to the
coast through 06Z.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
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srainhoutx
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Rumbles of thunder across NW Harris County now. I have just shy of 2 inches of rain in the gauge with most of that falling since 4 PM. Looks like heavy rainfall rates are developing to the W and SW as a potent jet streak approaches and the surface low deepens. Nasty night out there. Interestingly today marks the anniversary of the 1935 flood that led to the creation of the Harris County Flood Control District.
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Texaspirate11
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Lightning heavy rain in Galveston
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Katdaddy
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Ongoing development continues to the SW of the Houston-Galveston areas. Thankfully not much impact unless you were/are in the Houston traffic. Left the Galleria area at 3PM and got home at 5PM in League City.
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unome
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
938 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018

Areas affected...East-Central TX...West-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080237Z - 080837Z

Summary...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall across
interior east-central Texas into west-central Louisiana will
continue to saturate soils and may lead to flooding.

Discussion...As of 02z, an analysis showed surface low and
stationary boundary along the Texas Gulf Coast. Aloft, broad
southwesterly flow is evident with a large area of upper level
divergence across the southern Plains. There is a narrow axis of
frontogentically forced precipitation in the 850-925 mb layer,
which is contributing to steady moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. This is occurring on the gradient of the highest PWATs,
which are maximized along the coast around 1.9". These values are
2.5-3 SD above the mean for this time of year. MUCAPE as high as
250 J/kg extends up into east-central Texas. With the mean flow
parallel to the storm motion this evening and tonight, repeated
bouts of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are expected through
09z. Finally, since mid-afternoon, areal averages of 1 to 3" has
fallen, generally east of San Antonio to College Station to
Lufkin.

In water vapor, there is another mid/upper level wave noted across
south-central Texas. As this waves moves across east-central TX
into western LA, another wave of moderate to heavy rain will move
into the area. This is likely to produce hourly rates as high as
1" with totals of 2-4" possible. This rainfall, falling on
increasingly saturated soils, for a prolonged time could result in
flooding, especially over sensitive urban and poor draining
locations.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 9285621761
HGX issues Areal Flood Advisory for Fort Bend, Harris [TX] till Dec 7, 10:15 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 1900898304
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 8, 2:15 AM CST for Trinity River near Riverside [TX] until further notice

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3591047170
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 7, 10:28 PM CST for Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box [TX] till Dec 11, 8:00 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3607816193
HGX issues Flood Warning valid at Dec 8, 7:30 AM CST for East Yegua Creek near Dime Box [TX] till Dec 9, 4:00 PM CST

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 3532713984
HGX issues Areal Flood Advisory for Brazoria, Matagorda [TX] till Dec 7, 10:45 PM CST
unome
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https://twitter.com/DisasterPIO/status/ ... 6774622209
UPDATE NEWS AVAILABILITY: Judge @EdEmmett will be joining @JeffLindner1 at 9:00PM at @houstontranstar @ReadyHarris to discuss MAJOR #FLOODING forecast along West Fork of the San Jacinto River. . #houwx #hounews #severewx

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status ... 4463311872
UPDATE: major flooding expected on the west Fork of the San Jacinto River. Impacts to the following subdivisions are likely: Forest Cove, Rivercrest, Northshore, Belleau Woods. Take actions now to secure property. Some of these areas will be cut off for 4-5 days #hounews #houwx

https://www.hcfcd.org/press-room/curren ... into-river
Major flooding is expected in portions of Harris County along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River at near and east of US 59 and is likely to impact the following subdivisions:

Belleau Woods
Forecast Cove
Northshore
Riverside crest

Structures in these communities on the ground will likely be impacted by the projected rise of the river and elevated structures may be cut-off for several days. The river will rise to flood threshold levels by Saturday afternoon and is forecast to reach a peak crest Monday evening. The river will remain above flood stage into Wednesday and some residents may be cut-off for 4-5 days.

Residents along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River should remain alert to rising water and changing river conditions over the weekend into next week and take immediate actions to move or secure property that is near the river. The Harris County Flood Control District Flood Operations team will continue to check the gages and water levels in San Jacinto. The Flood Control District urges all residents to monitor rainfall and bayou water levels and near real-time inundation mapping on its Harris County Regional Flood Warning System website (desktop and mobile versions) at: www.harriscountyfws.org and at the National Weather Service Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service website at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx. Be sure to also follow us on Twitter @HCFCD for live updates.
Last edited by unome on Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Katdaddy
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1015 PM CST.

* At 818 PM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain which will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Up
to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, Katy,
Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Spring Branch North, Mission Bend, Town West,
Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West, Addicks Park Ten, Spring
Valley, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
Meadows Place and Hedwig Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
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jasons2k
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3.26" here so far.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
859 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

TXZ213-227-237-080345-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
859 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 858 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Sugar Land, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire,
West University Place, Midtown Houston, University Place, First
Colony, Astrodome Area, Fresno, Macgregor, Greater Third Ward,
Neartown / Montrose, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Greater Hobby Area,
Meadows Place, Southside Place, Brookside Village and Thompsons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 2559902721
HGX issues Flood Warning for South Mayde Creek near Greenhouse Road [TX] until further notice

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
920 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

South Mayde Creek Near Greenhouse Road affecting the following counties in
Texas...Harris


For Addicks Reservoir at Greenhouse Road, Minor flooding is forecasted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to rising water and
take all precautions to protect their property. Do not drive or walk into
flooded areas the depth and water velocity could be too great for you to cross
safely. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate
route. Livestock and equipment should be removed from the flood plain
immediately.


Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-081520-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0062.181208T0324Z-000000T0000Z/
/SMAT2.1.ER.181208T0324Z.181208T0325Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The South Mayde Creek Near Greenhouse Road.
* until further notice...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0920 PM Friday the stage was 107.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 107.9 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise to near
108.0 feet by tonight. Additional rises are possible thereafter.



&&


Addicks Reservoir
LAT...LON 2982 9562 2977 9567 2978 9578 2984 9583


$$
unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 9029458945

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
928 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

TXZ213-214-227-237-238-300-313-338-080415-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Chambers TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-Southern Liberty TX-
Fort Bend TX-
928 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

...Thunderstorms with gusty winds moving through Houston Metro...

At 927 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from South Acres / Crestmont Park to Iowa Colony.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer
Park, Alvin, South Houston, Seabrook, Galena Park, Webster, Manvel,
Beach City, Kemah, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands, Greater Hobby
Area, Clear Lake and Channelview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible tornado warnings from the National Weather Service.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
928 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

TXZ213-214-227-237-238-300-313-338-080415-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Chambers TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-Southern Liberty TX-
Fort Bend TX-
928 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

...Thunderstorms with gusty winds moving through Houston Metro...

At 927 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from South Acres / Crestmont Park to Iowa Colony.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer
Park, Alvin, South Houston, Seabrook, Galena Park, Webster, Manvel,
Beach City, Kemah, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands, Greater Hobby
Area, Clear Lake and Channelview.
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Rip76
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Pretty violent out there right now.
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Katdaddy
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ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1005 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1030 PM CST.

* At 1004 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over northwestern
League City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Southern Pasadena, League City, Texas City, eastern Friendswood,
Dickinson, Seabrook, Webster, Kemah, southern Clear Lake, Nassau
Bay, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Clear Lake Shores, San Leon, The
Johnson Space Center and Bacliff.
Andrew
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Ditches are full here. Some street flooding on the way home but nothing too terrible. We still have a steady stream pushing to the northeast but I suspect it will be light enough to limit flooding. So far looks like a solid 3-5 inches across much of the region.
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Katdaddy
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Eastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
North central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1100 PM CST.

* At 1002 PM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain which will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Up
to two to three inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, Rosenberg, Richmond, Wharton, Pecan Grove, First
Colony, Needville, East Bernard, Fulshear, Pleak, Fairchilds,
Beasley, Kendleton, Orchard, Thompsons, New Territory, Sienna
Plantation, Brazos Bend State Park, Boling-Iago and Greatwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
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Texaspirate11
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1245 AM CST.

* At 1108 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Two to four inches of rain has already fallen. Flash
flooding is expected to begin shortly. Rain rates of one to one
and a half inches per hour are expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, eastern Pearland, League City, western Baytown, Galveston
Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City, Friendswood, La
Porte, Deer Park, Alvin, Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque, Santa
Fe, Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock, Kemah and South Belt / Ellington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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