December 2018: Mid Week Rain/Christmas Outlook

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TexasBreeze
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December 2018: Mid Week Rain/Christmas Outlook

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:00 pm

Many indices I have seen and read about across the Interwebs say the Arctic will return soon...

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srainhoutx
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:26 am

I am seeing indications in the longer range ensembles suggesting some very chilly air arrives around December 5th/6th. The progressive zonal flow that we have been experiencing looks to be replaced by a very deep trough across much of the Nation. We also need to monitor this weekend as December begins as a storm system organizes and brined a potential of strong to possibly some severe storms across portions of the Lone Star State.
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by stormlover » Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:34 pm

Site looks good!!

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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by Texaspirate11 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:41 pm

Woohooooooo!!!
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by Clipper » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:01 pm

Very glad to be here. Long time (5 plus years) lurker; now new member. Thanks to all who made the transition here possible.
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by CRASHWX » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:08 pm

Love the new site! 👍
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by harp » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:26 pm

I'm in!!! :)

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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by Andrew » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:28 pm

Glad everyone enjoys it so far. Now we can have some great weather discussion and keep our fingers crossed for some December winter weather!
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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by cperk » Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:13 am

I'm in and happy to be here. :)

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Re: December 2018: Will the Arctic air return?

Post by unome » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:21 am

Dec 1st & overnight low in the 70s, but lows in the 30s forecast for Mon & Tue night - more weather whiplash !

Code: Select all

261 
FXUS64 KHGX 010937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Sct shra and a few elevated tstms along the dryline/front will
continue to sag southeastward and off the coast in the next 
several hours. Drier airmass will filter in behind with clearing 
skies and fog dissipation following in its wake. A warm start to 
the day combined with msunny skies & a dry airmass should lead to
high temperatures well above normal today. That same setup should
allow for readings to drop fairly quickly after sunset.

Not many changes were made to the ongoing forecast package as
overall forecast pattern and thinking remains about the same.
Look for another front to move across the area on Monday. It
should be moisture starved so am not expecting much in the way of
precip with it. High pressure building in its wake will lead to 
mclr, dry and cool wx thru Wed-Thurs. 

The next storm system is expected to approach from the west probably
sometime Friday. Medium range solutions are still indicating the 
potential for some fairly impressive dynamics with this system and
will be something to keep an eye on next week.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy dense sea fog will continue through these early morning hours 
over the bays and nearshore waters but the arrival of a weak Pacific 
cold front around mid morning will help to improve visibilities with 
the influx of slightly cooler/drier air. Generally light to moderate 
N/NW winds are expected this afternoon in the wake of this front and 
could persist into tonight. A light/variable pattern is expected for 
Sun as high pressure moves over the area. The next cold front is now 
forecast to move off the coast early Mon, with the stronger (colder) 
air not reaching the marine zones until early Mon afternoon. Caution 
and/or Advisory flags will likely be required by mid/late Mon after-
noon on into Tue.  East winds on Wed are then forecast to transition 
to a strengthening S/SE flow by Thurs. We may have to watch for some 
stormy weather late Fri ahead of the next cold front early Sat. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
The 12Z TAF package should see improving conditions from the NW with 
the passage of the weak cold front across SE TX. However...out ahead 
of this line, CIG/VIS restrictions will prevail. The strong cap over 
the region is helping to keep activity along this front rather limit-
ed so far this morning...and will likely keep with VCSH unless/until 
storms get close enough to a TAF site. VFR conditions should prevail 
across the region by this afternoon and tonight. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  49  74  47  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              80  52  79  49  65 /   0   0   0  10   0 
Galveston (GLS)            77  60  76  58  66 /  10   0   0  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CST this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from 
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal 
     waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters 
     from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 
     NM.

&&

$$

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