NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

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Cpv17
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:39 pm

The models have really cut back on rainfall totals the last couple days. A few days ago this was looking like a big ticket rain event of widespread 3-6” totals across the whole area. Now it just looks like 1-2”.

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don
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by don » Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:32 pm

I’m talking about when the high is in Canada though or near Montana/Wyoming. I know we would probably be too dry if it were that strong anywhere near Texas. 1030-1040mb seems to be the right strength around here, but correct me if I’m wrong.
Even in Canada it still wouldn't take a 1050mb+ high to get us cold enough down here for wintry precip. There are other factors that contribute to our artic outbreaks such as, snowpack, source region temps, and air density

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:51 pm

I continue to see many indications that many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly. ;)
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by harp » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:57 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I continue to see many indications amount the many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly. ;)
Not sure what you mean, sir.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:31 am

The models are really backing down on rain for this week. Now has most places only getting about half an inch to an inch and a half.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:58 am

The overnight ensembles are trending toward the possibility of a strong storm signal just after Thanksgiving. The 00Z ECMWF EPS suggests a deep trough over the Central/Eastern United States and a very impressive Blocking pattern over the higher latitudes of Greenland back into Eastern Canada. There are also indications that a surface low may ride out of Mexico into Texas sending a rather strong cold front across our Region. While it is too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring, I would watch in the Day 7 to 10 Range for changes brewing. The zonal flow we will have during the Thanksgiving Holiday period could change to a colder and active period as November ends a December begins.
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11182018 00Z ECMWF EPS 192 500h_anom_nh.png
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by sambucol » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:40 am

Bring on the cold...and hopefully some snow ☃️

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by tireman4 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:35 am

NWS Weekly Outlook
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NWS Houston Weekly Outlook 11 19 18.PNG

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by tireman4 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:36 am

NWS Houston Monday Outlook
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NWS Houston Monday 11 19 18 Forcast.PNG

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:49 am

We have a very fast and progressive weather pattern ahead this week into early next week with upper troughs, areas of disturbed weather and rainfall chances arriving around every 36 hours or so lending to a messy forecast. The raw and wet weather of today will be replaced by another shot of cold and somewhat drier air tomorrow. Wednesday is a challenging day due to another storm system approaching that looks to bring a round of showers and possibly some elevated storm Wednesday afternoon into the early hours of Thanksgiving day. A rather vigorous upper trough with a much stronger shot of colder air with possibly some moisture arrives Sunday as the hectic Thanksgiving Holiday period ends. Those traveling to the big cities in the NE can expect a very strong shot of Artic Air for Thanksgiving where temperatures may approach record lows of near Zero. Those heading West to California, wet weather finally returns along the West Coast where they sorely need some moisture after the wild fires, but flooding issues may become a problem for runoff in the burn scare areas.

Early next week may bring our Region another shot of temperatures that may flirt with freezing so stay tuned regarding that longer range outlook.
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