Wx Infinity Forums

Another interesting viewpoint of Winter...

jasons wrote:The AFD was very detailed. Here is sorta the summary at the end:

Fortunately the models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts well off the
coast in the Gulf that the area should avoid the heavy rainfall
threat. That`s not to say we will not get any rain in the area
because we are still looking at a good 1 to 3 inches of rain
across the area for the 5 day period next week. It just looks like
those isolated higher amounts will stay of the coast and not be a
problem for the area. Keep in mind this is still the extended
forecast and we`ve seen the second shortwave trough change in
timing for Wed/Thur quite a bit with the last day or two`s worth
of model runs.

The 12z Euro is more aggressive with rain.

Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...

tireman4 wrote:Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...

And here I was thinking all the orange in Florida were areas of voter fraud...lol. But yes, Srain is the one to go to for enhanced insight

snowman65 wrote:

tireman4 wrote:Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...

And here I was thinking all the orange in Florida were areas of voter fraud...lol. But yes, Srain is the one to go to for enhanced insight

I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.

NWS Weekend Outlook

I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.

It looks like our next shot of cold air (and maybe a storm) may arrive by the first half of December, as usual models will flip flop as they try to resolve this complex pattern. Btw we don't need a 1050mb+ high to get cold enough for a winter storm in fact a high too strong can make us too dry for precipitation to form. Even a high in the upper 1030mb's can be cold enough for winter weather as long as you have a storm system that can "dig" enough to tap into the cold air.

don wrote:

I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.

It looks like our next shot of cold air (and maybe a storm) may arrive by the first half of December, as usual models will flip flop as they try to resolve this complex pattern. Btw we don't need a 1050mb+ high to get cold enough for a winter storm in fact a high too strong can make us too dry for precipitation to form. Even a high in the upper 1030mb's can be cold enough for winter weather as long as you have a storm system that can "dig" enough to tap into the cold air.

I’m talking about when the high is in Canada though or near Montana/Wyoming. I know we would probably be too dry if it were that strong anywhere near Texas. 1030-1040mb seems to be the right strength around here, but correct me if I’m wrong.

One last today of 'warm' temperature and partly cloudy conditions before a shallow modified Canadian front arrives tomorrow afternoon/evening. This shallow cold front will drop temperatures into the 50's for daytime highs and possibly 40's for morning lows, particularly N of I-10 throughout most of the Thanksgiving Holiday week. Rain chances return tomorrow afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and rain chances remain in the forecast through at least Thanksgiving Morning. The can be summarized as wet & dreary as a series of upper air disturbances roll across our Region and a very pesky Coastal trough keeps our weather unsettled. The heaviest rainfall does appear to remain offshore, but there is a chance for elevated storms particularly on the busy Wednesday before Thanksgiving Travel Day. Pack your patience if you plan on flying out of SE Texas Wednesday!

Enjoy this beautiful mild Saturday across SE TX.

The models have really cut back on rainfall totals the last couple days. A few days ago this was looking like a big ticket rain event of widespread 3-6” totals across the whole area. Now it just looks like 1-2”.

I’m talking about when the high is in Canada though or near Montana/Wyoming. I know we would probably be too dry if it were that strong anywhere near Texas. 1030-1040mb seems to be the right strength around here, but correct me if I’m wrong.

Even in Canada it still wouldn't take a 1050mb+ high to get us cold enough down here for wintry precip. There are other factors that contribute to our artic outbreaks such as, snowpack, source region temps, and air density

I continue to see many indications that many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly.

srainhoutx wrote:I continue to see many indications amount the many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly.

Not sure what you mean, sir.

The models are really backing down on rain for this week. Now has most places only getting about half an inch to an inch and a half.

The overnight ensembles are trending toward the possibility of a strong storm signal just after Thanksgiving. The 00Z ECMWF EPS suggests a deep trough over the Central/Eastern United States and a very impressive Blocking pattern over the higher latitudes of Greenland back into Eastern Canada. There are also indications that a surface low may ride out of Mexico into Texas sending a rather strong cold front across our Region. While it is too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring, I would watch in the Day 7 to 10 Range for changes brewing. The zonal flow we will have during the Thanksgiving Holiday period could change to a colder and active period as November ends a December begins.

Bring on the cold...and hopefully some snow

NWS Weekly Outlook

NWS Houston Monday Outlook

We have a very fast and progressive weather pattern ahead this week into early next week with upper troughs, areas of disturbed weather and rainfall chances arriving around every 36 hours or so lending to a messy forecast. The raw and wet weather of today will be replaced by another shot of cold and somewhat drier air tomorrow. Wednesday is a challenging day due to another storm system approaching that looks to bring a round of showers and possibly some elevated storm Wednesday afternoon into the early hours of Thanksgiving day. A rather vigorous upper trough with a much stronger shot of colder air with possibly some moisture arrives Sunday as the hectic Thanksgiving Holiday period ends. Those traveling to the big cities in the NE can expect a very strong shot of Artic Air for Thanksgiving where temperatures may approach record lows of near Zero. Those heading West to California, wet weather finally returns along the West Coast where they sorely need some moisture after the wild fires, but flooding issues may become a problem for runoff in the burn scare areas.

Early next week may bring our Region another shot of temperatures that may flirt with freezing so stay tuned regarding that longer range outlook.